173
FXUS63 KTOP 272309
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
509 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain will develop Friday night with mix of rain and wet snow
  on Saturday. Any accumulation would be minor (half inch or
  less on grassy areas) and mainly confined to the far northern
  counties.

- A colder storm system will bring a chance for snow to the
  area Sunday night and Monday. This system would have a better
  chance to produce accumulating snow with potential travel
  impacts across the area Monday.

- Unsettled pattern will persist through next week with colder
  than avg temps expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

The forecast focus remains on the storm system that will impact
the area Friday night into Saturday with a second colder storm
with a chance for snow later Sunday night through Monday.

A subtle weak wave combined with 850-700mb WAA appeared to be
responsible for the morning clouds and flurries that have since
dissipated as the wave departs and shallow lift weakens. Light
winds will become southeast tonight as the atmosphere responds
to the wave that is now moving through the PAC NW and will dive
ESE toward the area Friday.

In advance of the wave WAA/lift should produce more mid cloud on
Friday with stronger/deeper lift expected to focus to our
northeast. There could be some sprinkles/flurries across the
north during the afternoon however chances appear low and there
would be no impacts. Stronger lift and precip will develop Fri
night with strong WAA/LLJ expected across the area which should
keep temps above freezing and limit precip to rain/drizzle most
areas as the low develops across southwest KS and tracks ENE.
This is an energetic system with 110kt jet digging into the
backside of the 500mb trough so expect widespread precip to
develop overnight into early Saturday. Critical thicknesses
and Tw fcsts suggest rain until around 12z Sat when some mix of
rain and wet snow could evolve across central/north central KS.
The window of max lift/precip appears to be 09-15Z saturday
when the heaviest rain/precip should fall. It will be a
progressive system so the time window of any wet snow mix would
be small and with warm temps to begin with this should limit
any accums. All in all our previous forecast appears on track
with rain mixing with or changing to wet snow with some minor
(less than one half inch) accums possible on grassy areas across
central and northern KS with perhaps a trace along the I-70
corridor from Alma east to Lawrence and southward.

All in all it will be a miserable day to be outdoors on Saturday
with windy and colder conditions expected to develop by
afternoon as the low departs with a quick end to the precip
expected from west to east. Colder air moves in for Sat night
and Sunday.

Any break on Sunday will be short lived as the next storm system
and associated lift will overspread the region later Sunday
night and Monday bringing a chance for snow to the area. This
system may actually have more of an impact on travel since it
will be colder with snow potentially accumulating on surfaces
including roadways on Monday. Stay tuned for more on this system
as we head into the weekend.

Colder than avg conditions will remain in place for much of next
week as the region remains in troughing aloft with a high degree
of uncertainty with regard to precip chances next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 509 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Mostly clear skies and light/variable winds will continue
overnight. During the day tomorrow, winds become more southeasterly
and increase to around 10 kts. Clouds will also steadily thicken,
mainly high clouds during the morning but lowering to around 3-6 kft
by early evening. Rain is likely to hold off until after the end
of this TAF period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Omitt
AVIATION...Reese