609
FXUS63 KTOP 070539
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1239 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few thunderstorms continue this evening before
clearing out early tomorrow morning.

- Cooler temperatures through Wednesday, followed by another warming
trend into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Surface observations this afternoon show that the cold front is
nearing Manhattan and slowly pushing southeast. Clouds and showers
ahead of the front are keeping temperatures in the 60s for most,
with just far east-central Kansas jumping into the upper 70s and
even 80s where sun has persisted. Behind the front, temperatures are
much cooler, still in the mid 50s at Concordia and Marysville. Into
the evening, we`ll continue to see scattered showers and a few weak
storms in the vicinity of the front. Isentropic ascent increases a
bit by late evening, so we should see a bit of an uptick in rain
coverage by that time. Most places along and east of the Flint Hills
will see an additional quarter to half inch of rain, with some
isolated higher amounts with any persistent convection. Tomorrow
will be much cooler behind the front, as highs stay in the 60s even
with sun returning by mid-day. Surface ridging moves overhead by
early Wednesday, allowing for one of our cooler mornings yet this
autumn - lows in the mid 40s.

Behind the departing upper trough, we`ll see upper ridging build
back across the Plains as a strong upper low settles over the West
Coast. This will result in a steady warming trend into the weekend.
Highs get back into the 80s by Friday. A couple weak disturbances
move around the crest of the ridge Thursday and again Friday, but
with plenty of dry air around, confidence in seeing any meaningful
precipitation is low. May start to see a bit more of an active
pattern by late weekend and early next week as the West Coast upper
low gets kicked out towards the Plains by another digging trough.
However confidence is low that far out, and for now the majority of
guidance keeps the best forcing for precipitation to our north.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

LIFR and IFR CIGs along with scattered showers will be expected
through sunrise, especially at KTOP and KFOE. Cannot rule out
some thunder with precipitation, but most will be without. CIGs
begin to raise to low-end MVFR around or just after sunrise with
low clouds scattering out in the later morning hours of Tuesday.
The remainder of the day will see mostly clear skies and
northerly winds.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Griesemer