028
FXUS63 KTOP 172341
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
541 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 10 to 20 percent chance for a shower or pop up
  thunderstorm this evening. Most areas are forecast to remain dry.

- Mild temperatures are forecast to continue this week.

- The next chance for rain is forecast for Wednesday night through
  Friday morning. The best opportunity (60-80%) for rain comes
  Thursday night and into Friday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

A couple upper waves were noted upstream of the forecast area on the
20Z water vapor imagery. The first closed upper low was over
southeast WY and a second closed low over the northern CA coast.
Surface obs showed low pressure centered over northern central KS
with southerly winds and good warn air advection taking place through
central KS.

For this afternoon and tonight, the better forcing with the upper low
over the high plains is progged to pass to the east early this
evening while the boundary layer for the most part remains capped by
an inversion. Have continued with some slight chance POPs across
northeast KS for this evening as the upper low moves east. Otherwise
the forecast is for clearing skies and winds calming down. This
could set the stage form some radiational fog to develop by Tuesday
morning, and have added a mention of patchy fog to the forecast.
Confidence in widespread dense fog is low due to models showing a
light west wind developing late tonight with some weak dry air
advection. But there is a signal from the RAP forecast soundings for
the boundary layer to decouple and near surface saturation. The 12Z
HREF also has 30 to 60 percent probabilities for visibilities of 3
miles or less across a good portion of the forecast area. So later
shifts will need to keep an eye out for dense fog.

Shortwave ridging is progged for Tuesday and Wednesday before the
next upper wave moves into the plains late Thursday. The better
dynamics from this wave are expected to impact the forecast area
Thursday night and into Friday morning. This is when the higher POPs
are in the forecast. But there remains a signal from the 12Z ECMWF
for some warm air advection showers late Wednesday across eastern
KS. So the forecast keeps some chance POPs in for Wednesday night
and Thursday. Shortwave ridging redevelops for the weekend ahead of
another upper wave potentially coming out early next week. There is
considerably more spread among the ensembles and operational
solutions with this third upper low. So have stuck with the blended
forecast as a reasonable first forecast. Since the NBM favors the
ECMWF a little more over other solutions, there is only a 20 to 30
percent chance for precip on Monday. Confidence in this forecast is
low given the differences in timing of the wave.

Temperatures through the forecast period are expected to remain mild
as models don`t really show any strong advection of warm or cold
temps into next week. A slight cool down is expected Friday and into
the weekend with some modest cold air advection along with clouds and
precip chances keeping highs in the 50s. Until then highs for the
most part look to remain in the 60s with lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 536 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Expect a band of SCT to BKN stratus with ceilings above 4000
feet to move across the terminals through 4Z TUE. If skies
become clear there may be some patchy fog developing at the
terminals between 10-14Z TUE. Visibilities will drop down to 1
to 3SM and if shallow ground fog develops there could be patchy
dense fog around sunrise. A few numerical models show IFR OVC
developing around 12Z TUE but uncertainty is high. After 16Z,
expect VFR criteria.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Gargan