664
FXUS63 KTOP 261637
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1037 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-A quick moving shortwave could create some snow flurries in
 central KS this evening.

-Cold but dry weather is expected for the Thanksgiving holiday this
 year.

-A system will bring rain and possibly (20-50% chance) light
 snow to the area this weekend as much cooler air moves in from
 the north.

-Light snow could again occur (20% chance) early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

This morning, a large surface ridge is building into the area from
the northwest, and low pressure continues northeast into Ontario,
Canada. Breezy winds will subside as high pressure becomes centered
over eastern KS this afternoon. Sky conditions start off sunny, but
high clouds will increase from the northwest this afternoon ahead of
a weak shortwave moving through northwest flow aloft. Forecast
soundings show some mid-level saturation ahead of that wave, while
the first 3 kft to 5 kft remain fairly dry. A few of the high
resolution models, including the FV3, NAM and NAMNest, show some
light QPF developing in central KS this evening in response to
some frontogenesis between 850 and 700 mb. Soundings show a
brief period of saturation and lift in the DGZ, so have opted to
include a chance for sprinkles/flurries since any precip that
falls is likely to at least partially evaporate before reaching
the ground.

The Thanksgiving forecast remains cold with temperatures dipping
into the 20s tonight and only recovering into the low to mid 40s
during the afternoon. Dry weather is expected until the next system
impacts the region late Friday and especially on Saturday. On
Friday, lee cyclogenesis will occur as a mid-level trough digs over
the Intermountain West. South winds will increase ahead of the
system, drawing moisture into the region. Models are in agreement in
boundary layer temperatures staying above freezing as precipitation
develops and becomes more widespread Friday night and Saturday
morning. As the system moves east, however, a cold front will
drop temperatures to below freezing from west to east across the
area. Models show rain quickly switching to snow for a few
hours before precip ends, especially in far northern KS. The 00Z
LREF run has a 30% chance of at least 0.1" of snow near I-70
and a 50% chance of the same near the Nebraska border, but only
a 10-20% chance of 1.0" within the same area. Impacts from light snow
are expected to remain minor across northeast KS.

Very chilly conditions will be in place as the next surface ridge
moves in from Canada late this weekend and early next week. Another
round of light precipitation is then looking possible next
Monday when another upper level trough axis approaches from the
west. NBM has only a 20-30% chance for light snow at that time,
with the better lift and moisture associated with the system remaining
southeast of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1037 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Some light flurries or sprinkles could develop this evening but most
guidance shows the better frontogenesis setting up just south and
west of the terminals. Since impacts are likely to be minor if any at
all, will keep the mention of very light showers out of the forecast
for now. VFR conditions will otherwise prevail with decreasing winds.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Wolters