881
FXUS63 KTOP 071743
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1143 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 20-30% chance for some rain late tonight and Saturday
  morning across northeast Kansas.

- A cold front should move through the area Saturday morning bringing
  blustery northwest winds to the region and much colder air.

- Sunday and Monday should see some of the coldest temperatures so
  far this fall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

08Z water vapor imagery showed the mean westerlies stretched from
the Pacific Northwest into the middle MS river valley. A shortwave
trough was rotating through the central plains as a closed upper low
moved into British Columbia. Surface obs placed a low over northern
WI with a trailing cold front through southeast KS and into west TX.

Overall operational models are in pretty good agreement in the
evolution of the pattern and ensembles show relatively low spreads
in temps and precip chances. So there is good confidence in the
forecast.

With the cold front already pushing southeast of the area, west and
northwest winds are expected to bring dry air back into the forecast
area limiting precip chances to less than 10 percent. The next
shortwave is progged to move overhead late tonight and Saturday
morning with another cold front passage. Precip chances will depend
on the quality of moisture ahead of the boundary and models show
little opportunity for moisture to move back north before this front
moves through with low level winds maintaining a westerly component.
A lot of the CAMs keep simulated reflectivity north of the state
line through Saturday morning. But the 00Z ECMWF still develops some
light QPF over far northeast KS. So have kept some low end POPs for
rain Saturday morning confined to northeast KS. A secondary
shortwave may dive south across northeast KS early Sunday morning as
the pattern amplifies. Forecast soundings show some dry adiabatic
low level lapse rates within a stratocu deck that is expected to
advect south with the strong cold air advection. Some very weak
instability is progged and may allow from some sprinkles during the
pre-dawn hours. Vertical motion within the cloud deck looks to be
pretty shallow suggesting the chances for measurable precip is less
than 20 percent. Additionally forecast soundings suggest the chances
for ice within the cloud could be pretty low and temps within the
cloud generally stay above -10C. So it may be hard to get flurries
and temps look to be just reaching freezing as the chances come to
an end. Will include a chance for sprinkles and flurries, but think
impacts from any sprinkles or flurries are likely to be minimal if
the trace precip does develop.

The biggest change in sensible weather in the forecast remains the
much colder temps expected for Sunday and Monday. Think cold air
advection should persist through the day Sunday making it hard for
temps to get out of the 30s in spite of reasonable insolation for
much of the day. Sunday night should be the coldest night we`ve seen
so far this fall. 12Z Ensembles have a tight clustering for lows in
the lower 20s. The NBM is a little lower near the 10 percentile of
the raw ensembles and have the forecast lows between these two
solutions. The other change to the NBM forecast was to increase wind
speeds Saturday and Saturday night. Forecast soundings show
unidirectional wind profiles with good momentum transfer. This
should make for blustery conditions.

The central plains should see a return of northwest flow aloft for
next week. Another shortwave may move through the plains Tuesday.
But again moisture looks to be limited for precip chances at this
time. The good news is temps should rebound relatively quickly with
highs expected to be back in the 60s by Tuesday. So the cold snap
looks to be short lived.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

There may be a few sprinkles at KFOE and KTOP through 1830Z.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. A
cold front will push southeast across the terminals during the
mid morning hours of Saturday, switching the winds to the
northwest at 13 to 16 KTS, with gusts of 20 to 27 KTS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Gargan