305
FXUS63 KTOP 141952
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
252 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for thunderstorms (20-45%) continue mainly through this
evening, with decreasing coverage overnight. North central KS could
see a severe storm or two this afternoon and evening.

- Highest rain chances the rest of the week (50-70%) are focused on
Wednesday and Wednesday night, although there is at least some
chance of precipitation each day this week.

- Warm temperatures continue through Tuesday, then trend back
  closer to seasonal norms the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Showers and thunderstorms have started to move into our western
counties in north central KS this afternoon, located within a narrow
moisture axis ahead of the surface trough and frontal boundary. The
upper trough is becoming negatively tilted and pivoting to the
northeast as it moves through the High Plains. While we still have
some work to do to overcome MLCIN, we do have MUCAPE between 1000-
2000 J/kg along with 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear in the area
of the storms, per SPC mesoanalysis. The best mid-level lapse rates
are across the western half of the state, but are still forecast to
be modest at 6-7 C/km in our area through this evening. These
parameters could be enough to support a couple of severe storms in
the area. The HRRR is the only one of the CAMs that really keeps the
current batch of storms in central KS going as it moves into eastern
KS this evening, and while this will bear monitoring, the
environment further east isn`t quite as supportive as in central KS.
Additional storms are expected to develop closer to the surface
front in western KS early this evening, though these should weaken
as they approach our area as instability weakens past sunset.

Generally speaking, CAMs are not excited about maintaining precip
through the area overnight and coverage looks more isolated. As
such, have lowered PoPs some for this time period. CAMs have a
little better of a signal for showers and storms to develop in the
morning hours Monday with lingering energy aloft from the upper
wave, but still with enough variation between solutions to keep
confidence low. Anything that does develop looks to move east into
MO in the afternoon, but forecast soundings do show an uncapped
environment, so will need to continue to monitor trends.

Most upper support looks to be well north of the area Tuesday before
the next trough approaches from the Rockies. This brings the next
best widespread chance for rain across the area Wednesday through
Wednesday night. A frontal boundary hanging around the area as well
as more apparent differences in the pattern depicted by medium-range
guidance keep rain chances in the forecast each day through the end
of the week. Cooler air behind that front mid-week should bring
temperatures back towards seasonal normals with highs in the upper
70s to low 80s and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

VFR conditions are forecast. A narrow axis of moisture with
showers and isolated thunder is currently in central KS and
forecast to move east through this afternoon. It`s uncertain how
well it will maintain itself, and with little lightning
observed thus far, think rain has a better chance of making it
than TS, but have maintained the PROB30 mention of TS in MHK
with a transition to VCSH at TOP/FOE. Precip chances are too low
to mention during the overnight hours, but there is a better
signal for showers developing Monday morning in eastern KS.
TOP/FOE stand the best chance of seeing those, although guidance
remains mixed on their occurrence, so went with a PROB30 group
for now. Otherwise, southerly winds today should diminish by
this evening and stay light the rest of the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Picha