670
FXUS63 KTOP 082027
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
227 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm tomorrow, then turning cold again by the end of the week
  into the weekend.

- Dry pattern continues. No notable precipitation chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite imagery showed a
longer wave length upper level trough across the eastern US,
with a shorter wave length upper level trough shifting east
across the TN Valley into GA. An upper level ridge was centered
across the eastern Pacific Ocean, off the CA coast.

The 18Z surface map showed a ridge of high pressure extending from
the southern Great Lakes, southwest into east TX. Southerly winds on
the west side of the surface ridge have eroded much of the stratus
across the CWA earlier this morning. Surface temperatures were in
the mid to upper 30s.

Tonight through Monday:

All the extended range models are in agreement with the longer wave
length upper level trough remaining stationary across the
eastern US through the next week. The mid and upper flow will be
northwesterly across the Plains. As shorter wave length troughs
round the eastern Pacific H5 ridge they will dig southeast out
of western Canada across the northern Plains and Great Lake
States. The DCVA ahead of these clipper systems will be located
across the northern Plains and may extend southward to IA and
the mid MS River Valley, so the CWA should stay dry. Expect a
temperatures roller coaster. Tomorrow, with southwest-west
surface winds we will experience WAA from down slope flow
across eastern CO into western KS/NE. Highs temperatures will
reach the mid 50s northeast to lower 60s southwest.

As the shorter wave length upper troughs did southeast and amplify
the longer wave length H5 trough across the eastern US, a
series of cold front will push southward across the CWA. The
first front passing through Tuesday night will only drop
Wednesday and Thursday high temperatures down into the mid 40s
to mid 50s.

A stronger front will push southward across the area Thursday night
brining the western fringe of an arctic airmass southward across the
CWA Friday and Saturday. Highs Friday may struggle to make it to
freezing along the I-70 corridor, with upper 20s expected for
highs along the NE border. After overnight lows Friday night in
the teens, highs on Saturday will only reach the upper 20s to
lower 30s across most of the CWA, with highs in the mid 20s
across the northeast counties.

Sunday, The 1040mb surfacer ridge across the eastern Dakotas
will build southeast across MO into the western OH River
Valley. An easterly wind will continue to advect colder air
westward across the CWA, with only a slight improvement in high
temperatures, reaching the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Monday, a slightly more zonal flow upper air pattern, along with
southerly surface winds should warm high temperatures into the
40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1137 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

The IFR/low MVFR stratus should begin to erode through 20Z.
Expect mostly clear skies through the night. If min Ts go below
the crossover temperature, then there may be ground fog. Most
CAMs show it being too mixy through the early morning for ground
fog to develop the 12Z NAM shows more fog development which
will become a low IFR/MVFR stratus deck. So the next shift will
have to watch on this potential.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Gargan