071
FXUS63 KTOP 102234
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
434 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures rebound tomorrow before another shot of cold air
  moves in by the weekend. Highs will struggle to get above the
  30s, especially Sunday.

- The forecast remains dry with any chance for precipitation
  staying northeast of the area.

- Look for another warming trend during the next workweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Early this afternoon water vapor Satellite imagery showed an upper
low over southwest Ontario, Canada, with an upper level trough
extending south-southwestward into the lower MS River Valley. A
broad upper level ridge was located across the eastern Pacific,
off the CA coast. Northwest mid and upper level flow was noted
across the Plains.

The 18Z surface map showed a surface low over Lake Erie, with a
surface cold front extending southwest across eastern AR into
southern TX. A surface ridge of high pressure was centered across the
TX PNHDL. Temperatures were in the lower to mid 40s across the
CWA. Look for highs this afternoon in the mid to upper 40s,
with lower 40s across far northeast KS.

Tonight through Monday:

The extended range models are in good agreement, showing a longer
wave length H5 trough across the eastern Conus with an H5 ridge
across the eastern Pacific. This pattern will keep the CWA in northwesterly
mid and upper level flow through the period with dry conditions.

An H5 trough will round the H5 ridge across the Gulf of Alaska and dig
southeast across western Canada by 00Z THU. West-southwest surface
winds on the northwest side of the surface ridge building southeast
across OK into AR on Thursday will help to warm highs into the 50s
Thursday afternoon. The western counties may reach the lower to mid
60s. Much of east central KS will reach the mid to upper 50s.

Friday, as the H5 trough digs into the northern Plains, a surface
cold front will push southeast across the CWA during the early
morning hours. Colder air advection behind the front will keep high
temperatures in the mid to upper 30s along and north of I-70 across
east central and northeast KS. The western counties and southeast
counties will be a bit warmer with highs in the lower to mid
40s. The DCVA ahead of the clipper system will be well north and
northeast of the CWA, so there will be no precipitation.

Friday night through Sunday, the H5 trough across northern
Plains will dig southeast across The Great Lakes and amplify the
longer wave-length trough across the eastern US. Strong low-level
CAA across the northern Plains will bring a stronger front southward
across the CWA on Saturday. Highs Saturday in the mid 30s south to
mid 20s northeast may be set in the morning and early afternoon
hours, with temperatures slowly falling into the 20s during the
afternoon hours of Saturday. A 1044mb ridge axis will build
southeast across eastern NE into MO Saturday night into Sunday.
The coldest arctic air will advect southward to our east but
Saturday night into Sunday will be cold. Lows Sunday morning
will be in the single digits in most areas and could be near
zero across Brown County. Wind Chills will range from zero
across the southwest counties to near 10 below in Brown County.
Highs on Sunday will struggle into the 20s and light winds will
only cause the wind chill indices to be in the teens Sunday
afternoon.

Monday through Wednesday:

The extended range models are in good agreement that upper air
pattern will change as the longer wave length trough in the
eastern US fills and shifts eastward it the western Atlantic.
The mid and upper level flow will become more zonal. A lee
trough will deepen across the central and southern high Plains
and southerly winds will begin to warm temperatures across the
CWA. Highs on Monday will moderate into the mid to upper 40s.
Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will reach the into the 50s, may be
some 60 degree readings by Wednesday afternoon.

We may see more of an active pattern by the end of next week as H5
troughs will move west to east across the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 434 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Dry air below 9KFT is expected to preclude any precip chances as
weak forcing passes this by evening. CIGS look to remain at or above
9KFT. Forecast will be driven by the winds should weaken this
evening ahead of a weak frontal boundary that moves through midday
Thursday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Wolters