443
FXUS63 KTOP 021116
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
616 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers across east-central Kansas this morning.

- High temperatures through the weekend expected to remain 10-15
degrees above normal before cooler weather and rain/storm chances
return Sunday evening and Monday.

- 20-40% chance of precipitation Sunday evening through early
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Mid and low-level water vapor imagery this morning show a weak
trough passing through eastern Kansas as a LLJ increases across the
central portion of the state. Satellite imagery over the past half
hour (as of 230 AM) shows increasing low and mid-level cloud cover
on the nose of this LLJ. With some very marginal amounts of MUCAPE
(200-500 J/kg), lift associated with the LLJ, and increasing low and
mid level moisture across central and east-central Kansas, some
scattered showers, possibly an isolated rumble of thunder will be
possible through the mid morning hours. The best theta-e ridge and
advection should occur south of I-70 through the mid morning, so
expecting most shower activity to remain there as well.

For the remainder of the day, scattering cloud cover into the
afternoon with increasing mid-level heights will again push
afternoon temperatures into the upper 80s. Similar conditions will
persist over the next few days as mid-level ridging remains in place
over the region. Expect high temperatures through Sunday in the
upper 80s and low 90s as lows each morning bottom out in the 60s. By
Saturday, the mid level ridge axis begins to slide east towards the
Mississippi River valley as a compact trough moves towards the
Rockies. Cyclogenesis on the lee of the Rockies should occur through
the day Saturday, tightening pressure gradients across the state and
increase afternoon mixing. This should lead to a windy afternoon
Saturday with some across central Kansas seeing gusts approaching 35-
40 mph.

The next round of precipitation moves into the area Sunday night and
through mid next week as several mid-level waves move across the
region with a stalling surface boundary across the region. Not only
will this bring precipitation chances to the area, but also a large
amount of uncertainty in temperatures next week. Currently
temperature spreads in the NBM show a 10-15 degree spread for high
temperatures Monday through Wednesday, ranging from the low 70s to
mid 80s. The cooler solutions would realized if the surface boundary
tracks across northeast Kansas and precipitation/cloud cover keeps
the area insulated from the Sun. If the boundary stays a bit further
north, so should the cooler weather and most of the precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

A line of showers, possibly a rumble of thunder, is soon to
impact the KMHK terminal this morning, but will not cause too
many aviation concerns. Kept mention of VCTS in at KMHK until 9
AM, but showers and storms may begin to remain south of the
terminal by 8 AM. Not expecting any precipitation concerns at
KTOP and KFOE. For the remainder of the TAF, expect winds to
shift towards the south/southwest by late this morning. Winds
should fall light to calm again after sunset tonight.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer