367
FXUS63 KTOP 181652
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1052 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- At least patchy fog in eastern areas early today. Fog potential
  returns tonight into Wednesday morning.

- Rain likely Thursday night into Friday, perhaps as early as
  Wednesday night, then possibly again early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Upper low was making slow eastward progress over eastern Nebraska
early this morning with attendant surface low over northeast Kansas.
A few showers in a minor wave rotating around it were dissipating
over northwest Kansas and expect this to continue. Generally clear
skies over a moist boundary layer and little surface flow has lead
to patchy fog in mainly east-central Kansas. The lows continue east
and should bring drier air and somewhat better mixing over the next
several hours but given recent drops in surface temps, the boundary
layer will likely stay insulated from these trends. Expect some
mention of fog will be needed through early this morning but
widespread dense fog is not expected. Some lower cloud is wrapping
around the northwest flank of the upper system and this could hold
together as it moves toward north-central Kansas later today. With
this potential, have lowered high temps a bit. Weak surface ridging
will be in place tonight with cirrus looking to arrive late. Will
include some fog mention here too with clouds likely holding off too
late to preclude development.

Wednesday still looking dry but precipitation chances ramp up
Wednesday night into Thursday and especially Thursday night into
Friday as an upper low ejects northeast out of the Desert Southwest.
Still some differences on timing and duration of the precipitation
though latest ensembles keep chances for over an inch at less than
40%. The next upper low out of the southwest moves into the central
to southern Plains early next week though differences exist in it
timing and trajectory. Still appears precipitation with both the
late week and any early next week round will be all rain with
temperatures remaining near to somewhat above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1052 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

The center of a surface ridge is forecast to setup over the area
Wednesday morning. This should allow the boundary layer to decouple
with winds becoming calm. However increasing high clouds this evening
may inhibit ideal radiational cooling and FG potential. The 12Z HREF
shows a lower potential for restricted visibilities at around 10
percent. But MOS guidance and forecast soundings from the RAP are
signaling some FG potential. With the expected high clouds, will keep
visibilities in the MVFR range and base timing off the RAP
soundings.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Wolters