071
FXUS63 KTOP 160448
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1048 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer than normal temperatures trend lower by mid to late
  this upcoming week back to the 50s which is near normal for
  this time of year.

- Rain chances for Monday evening into Tuesday morning continue
  to trend overall lower to around 15-20% for far eastern
  areas.

- Rain chances for Wednesday through Friday also trending lower
  with low confidence in the system moving out of the
  southwest. Still maintaining 40-60% chances for eastern into
  east-central areas mainly.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

The main belt of the Westerlies remains generally along the northern
tier of the CONUS along the Canadian border with 3 upper level
systems working from west to east. Mainly quasi-zonal flow remains
in place over the central Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley
regions and across the Appalachians. Over the SoCal and Baja
regions a cut-off upper level low pressure system remains in
place slow to advance east with a subtropical ridge in place
over the southern Plains into the southeastern CONUS.

Across the local area this afternoon a modified cold front has
steadily worked east and southeast of the area. A surface ridge
gradually expands into the area overnight from the northern Plains.
Dry air advection remains fairly weak, so residual moisture will
remain in place near the surface overnight. A few clouds will
continue to stream overhead but may remain thin enough to allow for
radiational cooling to be sufficient around sunrise tomorrow
morning, along with calm winds in place, to see patchy fog form
especially within low-lying areas. Depth of any fog appears to be
shallow so widespread dense fog problems appear to be low.

The primary change to the forecast continues to be the trending down
of overall precipitation chances across the area. The Monday evening
into Tuesday morning shortwave appears to be shortwave energy
breaking away from the southwestern upper low and a low amplitude
Pacific wave working into the Intermountain West. As these waves of
energy phase, they are forecast by the consensus of ensemble and
deterministic solutions to track across Nebraska into Iowa leaving
far northeast and portions of eastern Kansas situated on the
southern flank which will see only weak forcing for ascent. Weak WAA
and thus isentropic ascent may develop generally along the KS and MO
border which help keep mention of around 15 to 20 percent chances
for precipitation in the forecast but most soundings still have low
level dry air in place which may consume much of the precipitation
that would develop. Therefore, have gone with the trending down of
POPs once again for this forecast cycle. Ensemble data is clustered
near the 0.05" and lower ranges of measurable precipitation across
the area. If anything far northeastern areas appear to have the best
chance being closer to the transition into better forcing as the
system doesn`t appear to have strong advection in the low levels
with the front lagging the system.

As a result of the weak cold intrusion Tuesday behind the generally
weak upper level system, expect a slow trend down for high and low
temperatures until the end of week system which is low confidence at
this point. Cluster analysis suggests that the persistent western
trough remain in place and becomes reinforced into the end of the
week. The idea that a lead system breaks off from this setup and
lifts into the central Plains is what is trying to be resolved at
this time. The GFS and ECMWF as well as the Canadian have started to
come into better agreement with a negatively tilted lead wave
quickly deepening into a closed upper level low over the central
Plains from late Wednesday into Friday time frame. As it stands now,
the resultant baroclinic zones develop with a warm front along the I-
70 corridor and a cold front into southeastern KS into OK. With the
deeper moisture being slow to advect north the best signal for heavy
precipitation remains south of the area. Any resultant precipitation
over the forecast area appears to be mostly stratiform and all rain
with sufficient warm layer depth still in place from north to south.
Expect changes to this part of the forecast though considering the
lower end of forecast confidence with run-to-run consistency not yet
in place.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1044 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Expect VFR conditions at all terminals through the next 24
hours. Slight drier air advection and northeast to east winds at
925mb of 15 to 20 KTS should prevent any ground fog forming
Sunday morning. Surface winds will gradually diminish below 5
KTS by 12Z, and then back to the east through the mid morning
and afternoon hours. Winds speeds will remain below 10 KTS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Gargan