932
FXUS63 KTOP 211736
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1136 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain continues through the day, decreasing in coverage this
  afternoon and coming to an end this evening.

- Dry and mild this weekend before another round of rain impacts the
  area Sunday evening through Monday.

- Colder air remains on track to build in Wednesday and hold
  through late next week. Precipitation chances are low during
  this timeframe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

A negatively tilted mid-level wave continues its progression
northeast across the Plains this morning. Widespread showers and a
few rumbles of thunder have impacted the region overnight and
abundant lift and moisture remain in place through the morning for
showers to persist. Lift and deep saturation starts to wane by late
morning and into the afternoon, but still expect scattered showers
and/or drizzle to last through the daytime hours before the wave
advances far enough east by this evening and drier air filters into
the area. Cloud cover and precipitation will limit the degree of
warming through the day with highs topping out in the upper 40s near
the KS/NE stateline to the upper 50s in east central Kansas closer
to the warm front. Skies begin to clear this evening and overnight
from northwest to southeast. Boundary layer moisture remains high
overnight even with drier low-level air building in, so patchy fog
is possible into Saturday morning.

This weekend will be dry with seasonable temperatures as shortwave
mid-level ridging builds overhead ahead of another closed low near
Baja California. The closed low ejects across the central CONUS
Sunday into Monday, bringing another chance for widespread rain to
the area. Instability is progged to be weak and PWATs of 0.75-1"
will keep rainfall totals on the lower end. The NBM and LREF show a
10-30% chance for rainfall to exceed half an inch across northeast
Kansas with ensemble means around a few tenths of an inch.

A strong cold front remains on track to push through the area on
Tuesday. Below-normal temperatures are favored Wednesday through the
end of next week. Ensembles continue to show the potential for some
light precipitation during the Wed-Fri timeframe, but differ in the
placement, timing, and intensity of any perturbations and mid-level
frontogenesis moving through the northwest flow regime. Depending on
timing of location of these waves, some light rain or snow could
fall across the area, but the potential for any impactful
precipitation remains low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Rain showers remain around airports this afternoon before drier
air and less lift decreases chances for precip by this evening.
The challenge then becomes fog potential overnight and early
Saturday as clouds begin to lift and scatter toward the pre-dawn
hours. Have included IFR visibilities for the potential of early
morning fog. Any fog that forms is likely to be shallow given
expected drier air just above the sfc. Light north winds tonight
become westerly, but remain less than 10 kts into midday
Saturday.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Teefey