905
FXUS63 KTOP 212048
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
248 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Scattered rain showers continue into this evening before tapering
 off tonight.

-The weekend starts off dry and warm before another system brings
 rain back to the region.

-Cooler weather moves into the area next week, precip chances
 continue to trend down during that timeframe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Today`s rainfall is associated with a passing mid-level shortwave
trough axis and surface low moving through southeastern KS this
afternoon. Many locations have received between 1.0 and 2.0
inches of moisture since yesterday evening, with a new daily
rainfall record set at KTOP. Scattered showers will continue to
occur northwest of the surface low as it moves through southern
MO and further east of the area this evening. Forecast
soundings show drier air starting to advect into the region as
lift decreases while a ridge axis builds overhead tonight. Areas
of fog could develop late tonight and early Saturday due to a
combination of soggy ground conditions, clearing skies and
light winds.

The early portion of the weekend will feature drier weather,
sunshine and temps warming to near 60 degrees as a ridge axis
becomes established aloft over the south-central US. Further west, a
large cutoff low near Baja California will eject northeast over the
CO Rockies by Sunday evening. Southerly flow ahead of that system
will advect more moisture into the region with pwats increasing to
around 1.0 inch. A few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE could also develop as
a surface low deepens just west of the forecast area. POPs
begin to increase from west to east Sunday night with 60-80%
chances for rain and maybe an embedded thunderstorm on Monday.
The LREF Grand Ensemble shows mean rainfall totals around a
quarter of an inch, and only a 10% chance of half an inch or
more.

Dry weather returns Tuesday while a northern stream trough axis
quickly follows the weakening Baja system through the Upper Midwest.
That will bring a cold front through northeast KS, followed by much
cooler weather by midweek. Trends for precipitation late in the
week continue to decrease, with confidence increasing in a cold
but dry Thanksgiving forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Rain showers remain around airports this afternoon before drier
air and less lift decreases chances for precip by this evening.
The challenge then becomes fog potential overnight and early
Saturday as clouds begin to lift and scatter toward the pre-dawn
hours. Have included IFR visibilities for the potential of early
morning fog. Any fog that forms is likely to be shallow given
expected drier air just above the sfc. Light north winds tonight
become westerly, but remain less than 10 kts into midday
Saturday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey