176
FXUS63 KTOP 130423
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1023 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warm through the weekend.

- A change in the weather pattern is possible early next week
  and we may see our first chance of rain in over a week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1244 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

An upper-level ridge develops over the central Plains to end the
week. This will lead to well above normal temperatures for this
time of the year (highs in the 70s Thursday through Saturday)
and dry conditions. Toward the end of the weekend the ridge
begins to breakdown. A western CONUS trough begins moving into
the Plains sometime Sunday evening into Monday. There remains a
lot of uncertainty as to how the pattern will evolve early next
week. Models have been very inconsistent amongst members and
runs. There seems to be a decent chance that a storm will impact
some of the Plains Monday into Tuesday, but how strong the
storm is and what part of the Plains will be impacted is still
unclear. What is a little more certain is cooler temperatures.
It seems probable that temperatures will top out in the 50s and
60s early next week vs the 70s of this week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1023 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR conditions prevail. Light southeast winds overnight become
south-southwesterly Thursday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Updated at 522 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

           Record High         Forecast High
11/14
Topeka       77 (1897)              75
Concordia    74 (1990)              74

11/15
Topeka       78 (1887, 1899, 1950)  73
Concordia    77 (1887, 1952)        71

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Flanagan
CLIMATE...Wolters