721
FXUS63 KTOP 241029
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
429 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and a few rumbles of thunder expected through the day today.

- Breezy on Tuesday behind a cold front that will bring in below-
  normal temperatures Wednesday through the end of the week.

- Chances for precipitation return Friday into the weekend,
  including the potential for wintry precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

An occluded mid-latitude cyclone is sliding east across the Plains
this morning, bringing widespread cloud cover and an increasing
coverage of showers. This system slowly advances east through
the day today with persistent lift and saturation generating
widely scattered showers through the day. Unimpressive lapse
rates do steepen slightly through the day and could allow for a
few rumbles of thunder. Rainfall amounts have come up slightly
(0.50-0.75") across east central Kansas due to the potential for
some embedded storms enhancing rainfall rates in this area.
Rainfall amounts drop off with northwest extent; north central
Kansas may only see a 0.1-0.2" of rain. High boundary layer
moisture lingers into the evening and overnight hours before
drier air slowly works in. With light surface winds, think at
least patchy fog will develop and hold into Tuesday morning
before mixing out.

A strong trough diving southeast across the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest will shunt a cold front through the area during the
day Tuesday. FROPA is anticipated to be dry, but northwest winds
become gusty behind the front, with gusts of 30-35 MPH expected
through the day. After highs in the 50s Tuesday, temperatures fall
into the 20s by sunrise Wednesday and only warm into the 40s
Wednesday afternoon. Surface ridging moves overhead on Thanksgiving,
allowing for dry, but cool conditions with morning lows in the 20s
and afternoon highs in the 40s.

Northwest flow aloft gives way to more zonal flow by the end of the
week. Ensembles favor a western CONUS trough setting up this weekend
with a strong cold front progged to move through the area sometime
Friday-Saturday. Details remain unclear this far out, but confidence
is increasing in the passage of this cold front bringing in a
reinforcing shot of cold air along with chances for precipitation.
Guidance varies widely in key aspect of this system, namely the
speed and track of the system and the subsequent temperature profile
and precipitation type. Wintry precipitation is possible, especially
on the backside of the system as colder air filters into the region.
Still seeing some big run-to-run variations leading to high
uncertainty at this range. Be sure to keep up with the latest
forecast information, especially if you have travel plans this
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 429 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Complex TAF period with -RA/BR and MVFR to IFR (perhaps even
LIFR) cigs. Expect IFR cigs to dominate the period with passing
rounds of rain/BR reducing VSBY. Input the most likely timing of
these waves of precipitation. Uncertainty increases this evening
as precipitation ends, but boundary layer moisture remains high.
Confidence is high enough in at least patchy fog developing to
include in TAF, but timing and overall restrictions to VSBY
remain more uncertain.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan