196
FXUS63 KTOP 211048
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
448 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain continues through the day, decreasing in coverage this
  afternoon and coming to an end this evening.

- Dry and mild this weekend before another round of rain impacts the
  area Sunday evening through Monday.

- Colder air remains on track to build in Wednesday and hold
  through late next week. Precipitation chances are low during
  this timeframe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

A negatively tilted mid-level wave continues its progression
northeast across the Plains this morning. Widespread showers and a
few rumbles of thunder have impacted the region overnight and
abundant lift and moisture remain in place through the morning for
showers to persist. Lift and deep saturation starts to wane by late
morning and into the afternoon, but still expect scattered showers
and/or drizzle to last through the daytime hours before the wave
advances far enough east by this evening and drier air filters into
the area. Cloud cover and precipitation will limit the degree of
warming through the day with highs topping out in the upper 40s near
the KS/NE stateline to the upper 50s in east central Kansas closer
to the warm front. Skies begin to clear this evening and overnight
from northwest to southeast. Boundary layer moisture remains high
overnight even with drier low-level air building in, so patchy fog
is possible into Saturday morning.

This weekend will be dry with seasonable temperatures as shortwave
mid-level ridging builds overhead ahead of another closed low near
Baja California. The closed low ejects across the central CONUS
Sunday into Monday, bringing another chance for widespread rain to
the area. Instability is progged to be weak and PWATs of 0.75-1"
will keep rainfall totals on the lower end. The NBM and LREF show a
10-30% chance for rainfall to exceed half an inch across northeast
Kansas with ensemble means around a few tenths of an inch.

A strong cold front remains on track to push through the area on
Tuesday. Below-normal temperatures are favored Wednesday through the
end of next week. Ensembles continue to show the potential for some
light precipitation during the Wed-Fri timeframe, but differ in the
placement, timing, and intensity of any perturbations and mid-level
frontogenesis moving through the northwest flow regime. Depending on
timing of location of these waves, some light rain or snow could
fall across the area, but the potential for any impactful
precipitation remains low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 448 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Expect IFR cigs and VSBY restrictions from RA/BR through most of
the period. Rain has become more scattered this morning, but expect
periodic rain along with BR to reduce VSBY through the morning.
VSBY reduction becomes more uncertain this afternoon, but think
some RA/BR will keep MVFR VSBY through the daytime hours, along
with IFR cigs. Improvement is expected this evening with a brief
period of MVFR cigs before VFR conditions return. Exact timing of
these transitions varies amongst guidance, but input a best guess.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan