027
FXUS63 KTOP 092049
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
249 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold temperatures will stick around through Monday.

- A quick rebound for highs back into the 60s is expected by
  Tuesday, with warmer temperatures lasting through the end of
  the weak.

- The next chance for showers and a few thunderstorms will be
  Saturday into Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Early this afternoon water vapor satellite imagery showed an
amplified upper level trough centered across western lake Superior
with an upper level trough axis extending South-southwest into the mid
and lower MS River Valley. An amplified upper level ridge was
located across the western US. Northwesterly mid level flow was
noted across the Plains.

The 18Z surface map showed a surface low across northern PA with a
front extending southwest into the northern Gulf.  A surface ridge
of high pressure was building southeast across SD, NE into western
KS. Temperatures were in the mid 30s.


Tonight through Monday night:

The surface ridge will build southeast across eastern KS Tonight.
Northwest surface winds will diminish through the night. Clear
skies, light winds and a cold airmass in place will allow
temperatures to drop into the mid teens north to upper teens to
around 20 degrees south.

The upper trough will shift east across the eastern Great Lakes with
an H5 trough axis extending south-southwest into southeast MS
by 00Z TUE. The surface ridge will shift southeast into eastern
TX and AR. Light winds Monday morning will become westerly.
Highs will reach around 40 northeast to the mid 40s west. Light
westerly winds will keep lows warmer across north central KS
with lower to mid 30s. The eastern counties will see upper 20s.

Tuesday through Thursday night:

The upper level flow will back to become zonal flow as the
upper trough across the eastern US shifts northeast off the New
England coast and the upper ridge across the western US moves
east into the Plains by 00Z FRI.

Expect warmer and drier conditions with highs in the 60s and lows in
the upper 30s to mid 40s. A weak cold front may move south across
the area on Tuesday night but temperatures will only be a
degree or two cooler on Wednesday.

Friday through Sunday:

An upper level trough will move onshore across CA and dig southeast
into the Four Corners region. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF have similar
solutions lifting the the upper trough northeast across the Plains
on Saturday with the H5 trough amplifying into an upper level low
across western or central IA on Wednesday.

Friday, stronger mid level flow across the rockies will deepen a lee
surface trough across the central and southern high Plains.
Stronger southerly winds across central Plains will begin to
advect richer moisture northward across eastern and central TX.
The strong WAA will help high temperatures to reach the lower to
mid 70s across the CWA.

Saturday through Saturday night, the H5 trough will lift northeast
across the central and southern high Plains A cold front will move
east across the State of KS during the day and should reach the
western counties of the CWA by late afternoon. Strong LLJ and
southerly surface winds will advect mid to upper 50 dewpoints
northward across the eastern counties of the CWA. DCVA ahead of
the H5 trough axis and convergence along the cold front will
cause showers and thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front
Thursday afternoon. Effective shear will be near 40 KTS and if
the instability can increase over 500 J/kg, then there may be a
chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms. If scattered
storms develop along the front they will congeal into a line of
storms as the convergence ahead of the front increases. If a
squall line develops and moves across the eastern half the CWA,
there could be some strong embedded convective wind gusts in the
line of storm into Saturday evening. Highs on Saturday ahead of
the front will reach the lower to mid 70s. Highs across north
central KS will reach the mid 60s.

Sunday, the upper trough will amplify into a closed upper low
across IA. Expect mostly cloud skies with wrap around rain showers.
There will not be much colder air for this system to tap into, so
highs will continue to be above seasonal norms in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1127 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Scattered to broken stratocu will continue this afternoon with
ceilings/bases above 3000 feet. Skies will become clear after
sunset. North-northwest winds of 12 to 15 KTS with gusts of 18
to 22 KTS will diminish late this afternoon to under 10 KTS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Gargan