780
FXUS63 KTOP 140451
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1051 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog potential tomorrow morning, but still high uncertainty in
  coverage and density.

- Warm temperatures with highs in the 70s through Saturday. Then
slightly cooler but still warm.

- Dry through Sunday, then a few low rain chances early to
  middle next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Another warm day across the region as strong ridging remains in
place across the central part of the country. To the west, a deep
upper trough is beginning to split into two pieces. The northern
piece will stay more progressive as it moves across the northern
CONUS this weekend, while the southern piece will become cut off
over California and linger over the Southwest until it is ejected
eastward Monday.

Through the weekend, the main uncertainty is with potential fog
development early tomorrow guidance. There is a signal for some
areas of fog to develop prior to sunrise, as moisture continues to
be advected northward and clear skies allow for better radiational
cooling. However there will be an offset between the lighter winds
over north-central KS and the higher dewpoints over east-central KS.
Short term guidance of fog coverage/density differs greatly as a
result, with some depicting no fog and some depicting widespread
dense fog. Taking into account various model biases and the overall
setup, think a middle ground scenario makes the most sense, with
areas of fog developing late tonight but only a few dense spots.
Will continue to assess potential in the meantime though. The amount
of fog and low stratus will then play a role in temperatures
tomorrow. Where any fog or low clouds linger into the afternoon,
temperatures would likely stay a bit cooler than forecast. Otherwise
though, deeper mixing of warm temperatures aloft will help highs
near record territory in the mid/upper 70s.

Saturday will remain on the warm side of things, even as the
northern stream shortwave sends a weak front southward through the
area. Slightly cooler temperatures move in for Sunday behind the
front, but still stay a bit above average. Next chance of rain comes
Monday as the cutoff low approaches the area. Still some uncertainty
with the exact track of the low, but its deamplifying nature
suggests any rain will be scattered and not very heavy. The western
CONUS trough then reloads by the middle of next week, keeping mild
temperatures around, as well as a few more rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1048 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Expect clear skies through about 8Z FRI. Slight moisture
advection may cause fog to develop which could bring
visibilities down to 1 to 3 SM from 9Z FRI through 14Z FRI. KMHK
may be a bit cooler and ground fog may go below 1/4 mile at
times near sunrise. Slightly stronger surface winds mix down to
the surface to dissipate the fog after 15Z. Expect VFR
conditions for the remainder of Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Updated at 224 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

           Record High         Forecast High
11/14
Topeka       77 (1897)              75
Concordia    74 (1990)              75

11/15
Topeka       78 (1887, 1899, 1950)  71
Concordia    77 (1887, 1952)        72

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Gargan
CLIMATE...Flanagan/Wolters