682
FXUS63 KTOP 191046
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
446 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog this morning, with any fog burning off by mid-morning.

- Rain chances (15-50%) increase this evening and overnight, highest
  across east central Kansas.

- More widespread rain comes Thursday evening into the day Friday.

- Dry and mild conditions expected this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Southwesterly flow aloft has taken control of the central CONUS
early this morning ahead of a closed low centered off the
southwest California coast. The forecast area is under the
influence of surface high pressure that extends from the Upper
Midwest into the Plains. Light winds and high boundary layer
moisture have allowed for patchy fog to develop, although an
area of stratus north of Interstate 70 has limited fog in this
area and the cloud deck is showing signs of sagging south.
Uncertainty remains in how stratus progresses through the
morning, but the potential remains for fog to become more
widespread and potentially dense in localized areas that remain
void of cloud cover. Any fog will lift by mid morning.

Dry conditions persist through the daytime hours today, although
cloud cover will keep temperatures a bit cooler than yesterday with
highs topping out in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Increasing isentropic
ascent along with a passing shortwave will generate an area of
showers this evening into the overnight hours. The degree of
instability across east-central and southeast Kansas varies widely
amongst 00z HREF members, with MUCAPE progs ranging from near zero
to upwards of 2000 J/kg. The mean value lies around 750 J/kg, but
the more unstable airmass is expected to remain over southeast
Kansas. As a result, there could be a few rumbles of thunder along
and south of I-35, but more robust convection appears more likely
south of the forecast area.

A break in rain is progged to occur Thursday morning before the
aforementioned California closed low takes on a negative tilt as it
ejects across the Southern and Central Plains. The approach of this
wave will result in widespread rain building from south to north
across the area beginning Thursday evening and continuing through
the day Friday. Instability is even more limited, but PWATs near the
90th percentile of climatology will allow for some heavier
downpours. Even so, the lack of instability will keep overall rain
amounts more modest, generally 0.50-0.75" north of Interstate 70 and
0.75-1.25" south of I-70.

Brief mid-level ridging builds overhead this weekend ahead of yet
another closed low that tracks from the Desert Southwest into the
Plains. Precipitation chances increase with the passage of this wave
Monday and Monday night, but timing and location differences keep
NBM PoPs in the 15-30% range. GEFS and ENS ensembles have a higher
probability (30-50%) for measurable precipitation from Monday
morning through Tuesday morning, so wouldn`t be surprised to see
PoPs increase as models come into better agreement on timing and
track of this system.

For mid to late next week, guidance continues to show a cold air
intrusion pushing into the center of the CONUS. Below-normal
temperatures are favored by Thanksgiving, although exactly how cold
it will be remains in question. Regarding precipitation chances, 00z
deterministic GFS and ECMWF have backed off on precipitation
Wednesday into Thursday, but the ensemble suites still show a low
(10-20%) chance for some measurable (>0.1") snow. There is plenty of
time for details to be ironed out, but recent trends favor a drier
solution.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 446 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Tricky TAF forecast with IFR stratus at KMHK, but fog impacting
KTOP/KFOE. IFR/MVFR stratus is building towards the Topeka sites,
and think it will make it by 13z or so. Uncertainty remains in
how long stratus will last into the day. Guidance suggests stratus
scatters out between 16-19z. Input a best guess for the return
of VFR conditions. Showers approach KTOP/KFOE late in the period,
but uncertainty in coverage/location keeps confidence too low to
go with more than VCSH at this point.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan