314
FXUS63 KTOP 021131
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
531 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Areas of freezing fog are possible early today.

-Afternoon temps warm to above freezing today and tomorrow, before
 another round of very cold air moves in.

-POPs remain less than 10 percent through the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Early this morning, snow pack and clear skies are causing
temperatures to be very chilly in the teens and single digits.
Scattered areas of freezing fog have also been observed, mainly
at TOP. Some areas of freezing fog will remain possible until
mid-morning, especially where deeper snow pack exists. For the
rest of the day, high pressure currently over the area will
slide east, allowing south winds to return to the region. A
seasonally strong WAA set up will be slightly stunted by fresh
snow on the ground, but still should be enough to help
temperatures exceed the freezing mark for a majority of the
area. Above freezing temps and sunshine should help continue to
improve road conditions today. However, icy spots could again
develop following melting with temps in the 20s tonight.

A cold front then moves through northeast KS early Wednesday. A
few flurries/sprinkles could occur as the column saturates with
little pockets of lift near the boundary. North winds will
increase behind the front, which will usher in another round of
very cold Canadian-based air Wednesday night and Thursday. The
current forecast of 8 degrees in Topeka Thursday morning would
tie the record set in 1902! Highs then during the afternoon will
only reach the mid and upper 20s with a large sfc ridge
remaining in place behind Wednesday`s front.

Beyond Thursday, the mid-level pattern will consist of northwest
flow over the area. Long range models show periodic perturbations
within the flow, which for now do not look too impactful for the
area. One on Sunday could allow for snow just to the north, so will
have to monitor trends as that timeframe approaches. Otherwise,
temperatures should be a bit more mild with highs near 40 degrees
around Topeka on Friday and Saturday, then cooler again by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 523 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Other than a few hours of shallow FZFG at KTOP initially, VFR
is expected this period. There is about a 20 percent chance for
fog development at other airports prior to 15Z, but confidence
was too low to include. South winds increase today to near
10kts. A cold front then approaches airports from the north
toward the end of this period, eventually shifting winds to the
north early Wednesday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey