286
FXUS63 KTOP 111133
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
633 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and breezy conditions are expected this weekend, especially
Sunday.

- Rain chances (20-40%) return Sunday night into Monday with
relatively cooler temperatures.

- Temperatures look to trend warmer again mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 412 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Prominent upper ridge remains over the south central part of the
country with the upstream trough slowly translating across the
Pacific Northwest states. VAD wind profilers show a weak
perturbation rounding the ridge and mainly affecting the High Plains
of Nebraska. Cirrus has expanded from that region over to our area,
though it is thinner in eastern KS compared to central KS. The high
cloud should be enough to preclude fog development for areas seeing
more of it, but low-lying spots and river valleys further east could
still see some patchy fog as we get closer to sunrise. Forecast
soundings have shown shallow moisture at the surface supporting this
potential for a few hours around sunrise until we start to mix out
the low levels.

A small area of low pressure has already developed in eastern CO in
response to the subtle wave aloft, and lee troughing should deepen
further today as the larger upper trough advances eastward. This
will create a tighter pressure gradient with somewhat breezy
conditions, more so towards central KS today, but as the sfc low
progresses east, that will place the gradient across the rest of the
area into Sunday and lead to breezy conditions area-wide. As such,
highs today are forecast a bit warmer in the low to mid 80s in
central KS with upper 70s to the east. The BL should stay decently
mixed overnight, leading to mild temperatures through the night.
Starting out warmer in the morning plus the breezy southerly winds
will set the stage for Sunday being the warmest day, with all
locations reaching the 80s and some potentially flirting with 90.

Meanwhile, a cold front is progged to be approaching the area and
the latest models indicate that it may reach our far western
counties as early as 7pm Sunday evening. CAMs are just starting to
get into the Sunday night time range and are hinting at a broken
line of showers developing along the front and some scattered
showers within the WAA ahead of the boundary. Would like to see some
more run to run consistency, particularly with the WAA rain showers,
before feeling too confident in that timing. But if that trend
continues, then some PoPs may need to be added a bit earlier Sunday
evening. Otherwise, the front looks to be through the area by Monday
morning with scattered post-frontal showers throughout the day.
Models show little to no instability both Sunday evening and Monday,
so any thunderstorms would be isolated at best. The cooler air mass
combined with clouds and rain bring cooler temperatures with highs
forecast in the upper 60s to low 70s on Monday.

There may be enough shortwave energy around to keep some showers in
the area through Tuesday. Consensus appears to be improving in
nudging the upper ridge back to the north as we get into Wednesday,
favoring a dry forecast with temperatures starting to trend slightly
warmer again. It should be noted that ensemble data still show a
wider range in temperatures Monday through Wednesday, so there is
still notable uncertainty during this time frame. Additionally,
models vary on the depth and evolution of the next trough to our
west late in the week, leading to uncertainties in the timing of the
next associated sfc front. In any case, the pattern through next
week looks to become more active with perhaps more rain chances to
come late in the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Shallow fog at TOP will likely lead to vsby bouncing between
MVFR and IFR until around 14Z, with perhaps some brief
reductions to LIFR at times in the first hour or so of this
period. Otherwise, expect winds to pick up from the southeast
today. Sfc winds should stay up through the night around 10 kts
at MHK, slightly less at TOP/FOE, which should preclude LLWS
overnight despite a strengthening LLJ aloft.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Picha