531
FXUS63 KTOP 011048
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
548 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool today and tomorrow, but temperatures warm above average for
the rest of the week.

- Dry weather continues into at least Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Water vapor imagery this morning depicts a prominent upper low
pivoting southward over Minnesota and Iowa. This is keeping
northerly flow and CAA in place across eastern Kansas. So
temperatures today will be a solid 10-15 degrees cooler than
yesterday, struggling to hit 50 in most spots. Expecting clouds to
increase throughout the day as the upper low continues southward.
Can`t even completely rule out a brief shower over far eastern KS,
but the better chances will remain eastward into Missouri nearer to
the center of the low and cooler temperatures aloft. Sunday morning
still looks like one of our coldest nights of the season so far.
Near ideal radiational cooling setup with light winds and mostly
clear skies under the surface high, so bumped temperatures down
closer to the 25th percentile of guidance - generally in the
mid/upper 20s.

By the daytime hours Sunday, the surface high will have moved east
of the area, allowing southerly winds to return as broad ridging
builds eastward over the southern CONUS. This will allow afternoon
temperatures to climb to near average Sunday and above average by
Monday. Zonal flow with above average heights persists through mid-
week. Weak fast-moving perturbations may bring a few weak fronts
through the area, but above average temperatures will nevertheless
persist. Highs should stay in the upper 60s to low 70s each day,
with lows mostly in the 40s. Still indications of a slightly
stronger and deeper trough by late Thursday or Friday, but
confidence in details remains low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 548 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

MVFR ceilings will steadily move in from Nebraska this
morning, though look to stay somewhat scattered at first. Eventually
by the afternoon coverage should increase to broken or overcast,
especially towards KTOP/KFOE, but ceilings will also rise to VFR.
North winds peak at around 10 kts this afternoon, but will otherwise
stay around or below 5 kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Reese