295
FXUS63 KTOP 072036
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
236 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...


- A cold front should move through the area Saturday morning bringing
  blustery northwest winds to the region and much colder air.

- Sprinkles and a few showers will be possible Saturday night.

- Sunday and Monday should see some of the coldest temperatures so
  far this fall.

- Temperatures will warm back above seasonal norms by the
  middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite imagery showed an
upper level trough extending from the southern Hudson Bay region
of Canada, south-southwest across the western Great Lakes, then
across MO into northern LA. As the upper trough axis passed
across northeast and east central KS earlier Today, the ascent
caused a few sprinkles during the morning hours across northeast
and east central KS.

A second upper level trough was located across central MT. Northwest
mid level flow was observed across the central Plains.

At the surface winds were northwest after the frontal passage this
morning. However, downslope warming across western NE and
western KS has allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 60s
at 1 PM.

Tonight through Sunday night:

The H5 trough across western MT will dig southeast and amplify
 across southwest SD. A stronger cold front will move
southeast across NE into western KS by 12Z SAT.  The front will
quickly move southeast across the CWA during the remainder of the
morning hours. Winds will increase to 15 to 25 MPH with gusts to 30
to 40 MPH during the late morning and afternoon hours of Saturday.
The winds will diminish a bit Saturday night.

Some areas of north central KS may see a very high fire danger
during the late morning and afternoon hours of Saturday, as the
winds shift northwest at 25 to 30 MPH and gusts to 40 MPH.
Minimum RHs may drop during the afternoon hours to 25 to 30
percent. The freezing overnight lows may have sent some grasses
into dormancy.

The upper trough will dig from southwest SD into IA
and northern MO by 00Z SUN. A secondary perturbation embedded in
the northwest flow across central NE will dig southeast across
southeast NE into western MO.

At this time the stronger ascent will occur east of the CWA with
both H5 troughs. The secondary trough may provide enough lift along
with some weak isentropic lift for a slight chance for rain showers
and sprinkles across the eastern counties. Several forecast
soundings along with ensemble sounding show the mid level of the
atmosphere being dry. Thus, I don`t think ice crystals will occur
below 650mb where most forecast sounding have saturation occurring
Saturday night. If the secondary perturbation is more amplified or
tracks a bit farther west, then there may be enough saturation above
500mb for ice crystal growth and the potential for some snow to mix
in with the rain showers. Temperatures will drop below freezing
after the light precipitation shifts southeast of the CWA. If any
bridges or elevated road surface in the far eastern counties are
able to get wet, then there could be some patchy ice developing.
However, wind speeds will be 15 to 25 MPH, so road surface may
dry before temperatures fall below freezing. The strong Low-
level CAA will continue into Sunday. The lows on Sunday
occurring around 8Am in the mid to upper 20s. Highs on Sunday
may only reach the mid to upper 30s, with a few 40 degree
readings across the southeast counties. At least the winds will
diminish through the day on Sunday, as a surface ridge of high
pressure build southeast across the state of KS.

Light winds and clear skies with the surface ridge of high pressure
across the CWA will allow temperatures to drop down into the mid to
upper teens across much of the area.

Monday through Friday:

The extended range models all have similar solutions with dry
conditions and a warming trend through the next workweek.

The deep upper level trough across the east central US will
gradually shift eastward across the eastern US by early Tuesday. The
north-northwest mid level flow across the central PLains will
gradually back to the west-northwest.

Temperatures will moderate a bit on Monday with highs in the lower
to mid 40s as the surface ridge axis shifts southeast into the
lower MS River Valley.

Look for a warming trend through the workweek. Highs will warm into
the mid to upper 60s as surface winds become southwesterly. A weak
front may move through the area on Wednesday but high temperatures
will only be a degree or two cooler with lower to mid 60s on
Wednesday and Thursday.

Friday, a southern stream H5 ridge axis will shift east into the
southern high Plains with southwesterly winds developing across the
CWA. Highs may warm to around 70 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

There may be a few sprinkles at KFOE and KTOP through 1830Z.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. A
cold front will push southeast across the terminals during the
mid morning hours of Saturday, switching the winds to the
northwest at 13 to 16 KTS, with gusts of 20 to 27 KTS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Gargan