532
FXUS64 KTSA 091126
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
526 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 525 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

 - Patchy fog is possible through this morning mainly near and
   south of the Ouachitas, especially in the valleys.

 - Warm and breezy conditions likely today, with gusts up to 30
   mph promoting limited fire weather potential this afternoon.

 - Near to above average temperatures persist through late week
   before additional cold fronts bring below average temps this
   weekend and early next week.

 - Precipitation chances remain very low over the next 7 days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1107 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Patchy fog remains possible this morning in Pushmataha and Choctaw
counties with visibilities locally falling below a mile or less.
Isolated instances of freezing fog could develop as temperatures
fall to near freezing, but coverage and any impacts are currently
expected to remain limited and no advisory is planned with this
forecast package. Will let the midnight shift reevaluate and issue
an advisory if needed. Downsloping SW flow strengthens today as lee
troughing tightens pressure gradients this afternoon. This will
result in breezy conditions and temperatures climbing into the upper
50s and lower 60s, which is several degrees above average for this
time of year. Southwest winds intensify by late morning and
afternoon, with gusts between 20 and 30 mph. As a result, limited
fire weather conditions develop this afternoon as min RHs fall
into the 35-45% range and it has been one to two weeks since the
last wetting rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 1107 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Winds decrease after sunset but remain elevated through the
overnight hours ahead of an approaching cold front. This will help
hold low temperatures tonight mostly in the 40s in the pre-frontal
environment. By late Tuesday night/ Wednesday morning, the front
advances through the FA, bringing a slightly cooler airmass to the
area. High pressure fills into the region during the day Wednesday
with highs in the 50s and dry conditions persisting. Southwest flow
then returns on Thursday as high pressure moves east and lee
troughing redevelops over the high plains. High temperatures again
climb into the upper 50s or lower 60s with breezy conditions.

Another cold front arrives Thursday night into Friday, cooling
temperatures for Friday, especially across NE OK and NW AR, where
highs may struggle to exceed 50 degrees. Yet another cold front is
projected to move through the FA over the weekend, pulling high
temperatures back into the 30s or 40s for much of the area to start
next week. Overall, dry conditions are expected through the forecast
period under dry northwest flow aloft. However, there is some
indication that low level moisture may creep into SE OK and W AR
ahead of the front this weekend, with some showers possible. Will
hold PoPs just below mentionable at this time, but an increase may
be required if it appears moisture will expand this far west prior
to FROPA. Apart from the series of dry cold fronts to end the week,
generally quiet weather is forecast through the long term, with no
hazardous weather expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Southwest
winds will gust over 20 knots at times late this morning and this
afternoon, with these gusts persisting well into the overnight
hours at the far northwest Arkansas sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  42  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   61  40  59  35 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   61  42  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   62  40  56  31 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   58  41  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   58  43  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   60  42  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   57  41  54  33 /   0   0   0   0
F10   62  42  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   60  40  60  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...05