391
FXUS64 KTSA 041123
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
523 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 523 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

 - Above normal temperatures and dry weather expected through
   Saturday.

 - Breezy conditions develop Tuesday and Thursday afternoons, but
   winds should remain below advisory criteria.

 - A strong cold front Saturday will drop temperatures below
   seasonal averages Sunday into early next week, but dry
   conditions will likely continue.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1004 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Mostly clear conditions continue Tuesday, with some high clouds
at times. Robust southerly flow persists (gusts of 25-35 mph) as
a storm system in the northern plains keeps a strong southerly
pressure gradient in place. Temperatures will warm 2-5F, with low
70s in northwest AR, and mid to upper 70s elsewhere. With low
afternoon RH on top of the warm and breezy conditions, the fire
weather potential will increase, especially for northeast OK.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 1004 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

A weak dry cold front will slide into northeast OK Wednesday,
settling near or just south of I-40 by Wednesday evening. This will
reverse the southerly flow temporarily north of the boundary, with
some slight cooling. Highs will range from the upper 70s in the
south to low 70s in the north. Southerly flow immediately returns
Thursday, with very warm air surging back into the area. High
Temperatures Thursday will range from the mid 70s in northwest AR to
low 80s for eastern Oklahoma. Winds will not be as strong as
Tuesday, but will still gust to 15-30 mph.

Another weak but mostly dry cold front Friday will knock
temperatures down a few degrees. There is still a 5-10% chance of
a few showers or sprinkles for portions of far northeast OK and
northwest AR, but most areas will see nothing. A stronger cold
front will then move through Saturday. A good push of northerly
flow will bring much cooler air back into the forecast area. This
will lower highs into the 50s-60s Sunday onwards with lows into
the 20s to 30s. Some guidance is quite chilly by Monday, so
depending on model trends, forecast temperatures could be lowered
further. Rain chances look bleak, with a 5-10% chance of a few
showers Saturday but otherwise essentially no precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

VFR conditions expected at all sites through this forecast period,
with high clouds becoming BKN by this evening. Light wind at the
surface this morning with strong low level jet above the ground will
result in LLWS until about mid morning. Mixing of some of this wind
to the ground and tightening surface pressure gradient will result in
20-25kt gusts most sites by this afternoon until early this evening.
Wind decouples around sunset this evening and low level jet
redevelops, with LLWS again developing 03z-12z. Next cold frontal
passage expected to occur after this forecast period ends.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  53  75  52 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   77  50  77  56 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   78  54  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   77  48  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   73  50  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   74  54  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   77  53  75  55 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   75  52  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
F10   77  53  77  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   77  52  78  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...69