675
FXUS64 KTSA 020518
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1218 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1218 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

  - Low shower and thunderstorm chances this morning NW of I-44 and
    this afternoon across NW AR.

  - Mostly dry weather with above normal temperatures into next week.

  - Low shower and thunderstorm chances exist toward the early to
    middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

It will be another mild start to the day across the area for what
will be another hot afternoon with temperatures near 90 degrees for
much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. One change however,
is that low chances for a few widely scattered showers will exist
this morning across portions of northeast Oklahoma, mainly northwest
of I-44. A zone of mid level moisture is noted on current water
vapor imagery and from evening soundings west of the local region. A
passing weak mid level wave should aid in the development of some
showers toward daybreak across north central Oklahoma and southern
Kansas, with those showers then drifting into northeast Oklahoma
around sunrise. Any precip will remain very light with accumulations
remaining below a tenth of an inch. Precip will be short lived and
another sunny, warm, and mainly dry afternoon is in store. Low
chances also exist for widely scattered showers or possibly a
thunderstorm across western Arkansas, along and east of I-49, during
the afternoon as a plume of moisture moves northward around the
periphery of the exiting surface ridge axis. But, again chances will
stay at 20% or less and coverage/amounts will be minimal. Any precip
should subside toward sunset with mild and dry conditions continuing
for tonight.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Upper level ridging expands and strengthens into Friday with another
hot and dry day on tap. Highs will likely be near or exceed 90
degrees Friday afternoon across much of eastern Oklahoma and west
central Arkansas, with temps in the mid to upper 80s across
northwest Arkansas. Heading into the weekend, the ridge weakens
slightly as western CONUS troughing takes hold across the
Intermountain West. This should allow temps to come back down a few
degrees, but still generally well above normal temperatures
and dry weather persist through the weekend.

The pattern looks to shift a bit early next week as several waves
lift northeast out of the western CONUS through the Central and
Northern Plains. Indications are this will shove the ridge further
south and east. Additionally, a weak low of tropical origin will
lift northward out of the Gulf and across western Arkansas on
Monday, bringing with it a plume of tropical like moisture over the
region by Monday afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances will re-
enter the forecast with this feature, mainly across far eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas both Monday and Tuesday afternoon.
Widespread significant rainfall looks unlikely, but and showers or
storms that do develop will have ample moisture to work with and
heavy downpours would be possible for isolated locations.

Signs are starting to point to a frontal boundary working its way
southward as a mid level trough dives southeast out of Canada toward
the middle part of next week. While not a particularly strong front,
the boundary interacting with the tropical moisture still in place
could lead to more widespread rainfall toward the end of this
forecast period. Details are still uncertain at this range, but
something that bears watching going forward.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

No major changes from last aviation forecast package. VFR
conditions to prevail through the forecast period. Intermittent patchy
fog may develop across far northwest AR early this morning, mostly
impacting ROG and possibly FYV. High based, light showers will
likely spread into parts of NE OK early to mid morning this
morning with no aviation impact expected. FEW-SCT afternoon Cu
field is expected with an isolated shower or storm possible across
western AR. Chances for flight impacts at any specific terminal
remain very low.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  67  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   90  66  90  62 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   90  65  90  62 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   89  62  90  60 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   87  62  86  58 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   85  62  85  59 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   89  66  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   88  64  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
F10   90  64  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   88  65  87  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...67