335
FXUS64 KTSA 020515
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1215 AM CDT Sun Nov 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1215 AM CDT Sun Nov 2 2025

 - Frost and freeze conditions are expected this morning. Freeze
   Warnings and Frost Advisories are in effect for much of eastern
   Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

 - Well above normal temperatures return early next week with
   predominantly dry conditions.

 - Breezy conditions develop Tuesday and Thursday afternoons, but
   should remain below advisory criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Nov 2 2025

Surface ridge building into the region in the wake of a strong
shortwave trough and associated cold front will set the stage for
frost and freeze conditions this morning. Warnings and advisories
are in effect through just after sunrise. Made a minor expansion to
the freeze warning, otherwise no changes made. Temps will warm up
fast after sunrise, with highs topping out a few degrees below
observed highs today.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Nov 2 2025

Southerly winds return today and will result in a much milder night
across eastern Oklahoma tonight. The valleys of western Arkansas
closer to the surface ridge could see low temps get down close to
freezing again by Monday morning. A highly zonal and progressive
upper flow pattern will prevail across the CONUS this coming week,
with models forecasting 2 to 3 lower amplitude waves to traverse
across the country. The resulting weather will be predominantly warm
and dry, and thus low impact. We`ll have a couple breezy afternoons
on Tuesday and Thursday, followed by a stronger storm system and
associated front toward the end of the week. At this point, the
front is progged to come through dry for the most part as it is
tough to get appreciable moisture back to the north and west in this
progressive pattern.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Nov 2 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with mostly clear
skies expected across the region. Calm to light and variable
winds overnight will become southerly by the afternoon, but
generally remain less than 10 knots.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  43  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   61  39  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   65  42  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   61  39  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   58  38  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   56  40  68  47 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   61  43  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   58  42  68  49 /   0   0   0   0
F10   64  43  73  51 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   64  41  72  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for OKZ054>071-
     073>076.

     Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for OKZ049-072.

AR...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for ARZ001-002-010-
     011.

     Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04