700
FXUS64 KTSA 191538
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1038 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1037 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The northern limb of a deep-layer moist axis extending north from
TS Alberto in the southwest Gulf will shift west over the
forecast area today. This, combined with daytime heating, should
bring at least slighly higher coverage (PoPs still low overall
though) of spotty showers this afternoon across the area. Will
keep thunder probs confined to the north and west of Tulsa closer
to a weak front/differential heating boundary. The remainder of
the forecast was left unchanged.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Near normal temperatures, partly to mostly cloudy skies and widely
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected in
eastern Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas today.
Very light showers remain early this morning across Osage and
Pawnee counties on the edge of a modest low level jet and may
persist into mid morning before dissipating. An increase in cloud
cover can be expected this afternoon, especially across southeast
Oklahoma and west central Arkansas, which should keep temperatures
a couple of degrees cooler than observed yesterday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Surface high pressure will nose into the area overnight, leading
to lighter and more easterly winds than the last few nights, which
should promote cooler low temperatures for Thursday morning than
we have seen of late. During the day Thursday, cloud cover should
diminish overall, as the moisture from the tropical system to our
south is pushed west of the area by the expanding upper level high
to the east. There could be more isolated shower and thunderstorm
development on Thursday afternoon, especially in southeast
Oklahoma on the edge of the expanding high, and this potential
will be added to the NBM offering.

For Friday and into the weekend, the temperature and moisture
combination takes focus with the high overhead. Temperatures
should reach well above normal levels for the weekend and continue
into early next week. An increase in moisture remains expected by
Sunday, which will make the heat stress potential worse. Expect
widespread triple digit heat index values, with a likely need for
heat headlines during much of this time frame.

Toward early next week, the high remains expected to shift far
enough west to allow for some more organized shower and
thunderstorm potential. Have adjusted the NBM initialization up a
bit to allow for mentionable POPs Sunday night/Monday morning and
also Monday night/Tuesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

An outflow boundary from overnight showers has pushed into
northeast OK, and may get as far east as KBVO before stalling out.
A few showers and potentially a wind shift are possible there this
morning. Low clouds are also spreading in along this boundary, but
independently are also filling in across portions of southeast OK
and northwest AR. Generally, most terminals can expect SCT-BKN
coverage in the 2.5-5 kft range for this morning before thinning
during the afternoon. Additional showers and storms may develop
this afternoon for southeast OK and northwest AR, with a 10-30%
chance of affecting any given terminal. For now, did not include
mention of this but if confidence increases it will be included in
future TAF updates. Winds will be breezy again today, but mostly
in the 10-20 kt range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  73  92  74 /  20  10  10   0
FSM   91  73  93  73 /  20  10  10   0
MLC   89  71  91  71 /  20  10  20   0
BVO   91  69  91  69 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   90  68  90  68 /  20  10   0   0
BYV   90  68  90  68 /  30  10   0   0
MKO   90  72  90  72 /  20  10   0   0
MIO   90  71  90  71 /  10  10   0   0
F10   89  71  89  71 /  30  10  10   0
HHW   85  73  90  71 /  20  10  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...06