722
FXUS64 KTSA 082353
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
553 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1145 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

 - Significantly colder temperatures behind a strong cold front
   tonight through Monday night.

 - Widespread hard freeze with high potential for a localized killing
   freeze in northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas Sunday
   night/Monday morning; Freeze Warning in effect from 9 PM
   Sunday until 9 AM Monday.

 - Near to above normal temperatures return mid through late next
   week. Dry weather will continue.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1145 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

A deep trough is building into the central United States. Surface
analysis shows relatively tight isobar packing along and behind a
cold front, which is current moving into western Oklahoma. Warm but
otherwise quiet weather will persist into the early afternoon,
with temperatures then cooling as a cold front enters northeast
OK. The cold front will move through the area by this evening. The
air is much too dry to support any precipitation.

Winds will gust to 15-30 mph behind the front for a few hours before
diminishing somewhat. However, a secondary push of colder air
arrives overnight and reinvigorates wind speeds. Atmospheric
profiles moisten slightly, with perhaps a few sprinkles or
flurries overnight, but measurable precipitation is very
unlikely. Temperatures Sunday morning will bottom out from the mid
30s in the north to mid 40s in the south, with colder wind
chills.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Cold advection continues during the day Sunday, partially
offsetting diurnal heating, with the result being temperatures
slowly climbing into the mid to upper 40s in the north and low 50s
in the south. Winds will remain gusty until sundown on Sunday,
with gusts of 15-30 mph. A few sprinkles or flurries Sunday
morning are possible, but most areas will see nothing.

With clear skies, lighter winds, and a cold/dry airmass in place,
Sunday night into Monday looks very cold. Low to mid 20s are
expected in the north and mid to upper 20s in the south. EPS EFI
temperature values show values around -0.8, which implies a
fairly unusual event for this time of year. Similarly NAEFS
temperature percentiles bottom out around the 1st-2nd percentile
for this time of year. With a widespread hard freeze nearly
certain at this point, went ahead and upgraded the Freeze Watch to
a Warning. Take any needed precautions to protect outdoor plants
or property. Monday will remain cool with highs in the low 40s in
northwest AR, with mid 40s to near 50 F elsewhere.

Monday night into Tuesday remains chilly, with another freeze for
much of the area (coldest in northwest Arkansas). For the rest of
the forecast, it looks quiet. Temperatures will quickly warm back
into the 60s for most locations Tuesday, with mid to upper 70s
for highs by late in the week. No additional rain is expected
until at least next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Scattered to broken high clouds should remain common into the
overnight hours ahead of a stronger surge of a colder airmass into
the region late tonight/early Sunday morning. Scattered/broken
MVFR to low end VFR ceilings are forecast to move across much of
the CWA early to mid morning Sunday and remain into early
afternoon before scattering out once an upper level trof axis
exits. Will continue with Tempo groups for timing of the greater
potential for MVFR ceilings for all TAF sites. Winds through the
period start out breezy/gusty out of the west to northwest, weaken
during the evening hours, and then increase again with gusts
20-25KT late tonight through the day Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  48  25  47 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   44  51  28  47 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   42  52  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   35  45  21  45 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   35  44  20  43 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   36  42  23  41 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   40  48  24  47 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   35  43  21  43 /   0  10   0   0
F10   40  49  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   45  54  27  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Freeze Warning from 9 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for OKZ049-
     053>076.

AR...Freeze Warning from 9 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for ARZ001-
     002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...20