899
FXUS64 KTSA 291152
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
552 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1108 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

 - Strong winds, rain, and a slight chance of thunderstorms
   continue through Saturday afternoon.

 - Very cold temperatures Sunday through Tuesday morning. There
   will be a slight chance of snow for northern areas and a
   wintry mix for southern areas on Monday. Low chance of minor
   impacts, mainly across NW AR.

 - Temperatures warm somewhat into the middle of next week before
   another dry cold front arrives. No precipitation is
   anticipated at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 1108 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

A deep trough is digging into the northern Plains with lee
cyclogenesis ongoing to the northwest of the area. This will
continue to tighten up the pressure gradient with strong and gusty
southerly winds. Wind gusts to 30-45 mph are expected to develop
tonight into Saturday early afternoon. A Wind Advisory has been
issued to cover this threat. Meanwhile, the low level jet has also
intensified, bringing warm and unstable air into area. Showers
and a few thunderstorms developed earlier this evening, and will
continue through the overnight hours. The better instability and
thunderstorm chance will continue across southeast OK into west-
central AR. Flood concerns are not anticipated at this time.

Upper levels will cool Saturday as the upper level low approaches,
with a reinvigoration of showers and thunderstorms, particularly for
northwest Arkansas. Total rainfall will range from 0.10 to 0.50
inches for most areas, highest in the east. A few locations may see
locally heavy rainfall of up to an inch or so. Strong gusty winds
will reverse behind the cold front, which will move through the area
midday. Winds will gust to 25-40 mph, weakening somewhat by the
evening. A few models want to mix rain and snow across the higher
terrain of northwest AR Saturday evening, but given rapid drying
behind the cold front, this seems unlikely. Temperatures will
quickly fall Saturday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 1108 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Very cold temperatures will settle in across the region by Sunday
morning, with all locations into the 20s (coldest in the north).
Wind chills will fall to 10-20 F during the morning hours.
Initially clear skies will gradually cloud over during the
afternoon, keeping temperatures down a bit, with highs in the mid
30s in the north and low 40s in the south. Low temperatures will
not be quite as chilly as the day before, but will still fall into
the 20s for most locations Monday morning.

Attention then turns to the winter weather potential. A weak upper
level low will pass over the area. Some precipitation is expected to
develop north of the low, which will mainly be north of the forecast
area. This will fall as snow as its well removed from any warm air
influences. Additional precipitation may develop across southeast OK
into west-central AR, where better warm air advection and moisture
return is expected. This would fall as rain or a mixture of rain,
snow, and freezing rain. Models have trended north with the
moisture extent (and a further north track of the low), which may
spread the threat of sleet and freezing rain further north if
trends continue. This would also reduce the potential of snow
with the deeper warm air intrusion. For now mostly maintained the
current forecast, but this will be something to watch.

By Monday evening, as precipitation wraps around the upper low,
snow may spread into portions of northeast OK and northwest AR.
For most areas this will just be flurries to a light dusting. The
best chance for a few tenths of an inch to locally up to 1 inch
of snow will be in northwest AR, especially in the higher terrain.
In summary, some minor and brief winter weather impacts remain a
possibility, especially for the higher terrain in northwest AR.
High temperatures Monday will again reach the low to mid 30s in
the north, and upper 30s in the south. One last shot of cold air
spills in for Tuesday morning, with lows in the teens to low 20s
in the north and mid 20s in the south.

Warmer and drier weather will then develop midweek with almost no
chance of precipitation. A robust but dry cold front will move
through later Wednesday. This should knock temperatures down to well
below normal on Thursday, but a quick recovery will follow on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Isolated to widely scattered showers will persist through the
morning and into this afternoon. There could be an occasional
lightning strike or rumble of thunder, especially in the vicinity
of KMLC and KFSM, but probabilities of lightning are too low
(<20%) to mention in the TAFs. MVFR ceilings are expected to
become a mixture of IFR and MVFR later this morning. Gusty
southerly winds, with gusts in excess of 30 knots, will also
continue through the morning ahead of an approaching strong cold
front that will be moving through from northwest to southeast this
afternoon. Behind the cold front, winds will turn out of the
northwest, remaining breezy and occasionally gusty, but not as
breezy as this morning. Additionally, precipitation ends and
ceilings will improve fairly quickly behind the front, with VFR
prevailing behind it.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  25  36  28 /  70   0   0  10
FSM   54  27  42  30 /  90   0   0  10
MLC   58  26  40  29 /  70   0   0  10
BVO   54  22  35  23 /  70   0   0   0
FYV   51  22  37  25 /  90   0   0   0
BYV   51  22  35  24 /  90   0   0   0
MKO   56  25  38  28 /  70   0   0  10
MIO   51  22  34  24 /  90   0   0   0
F10   58  25  38  28 /  70   0   0  10
HHW   57  27  44  31 /  80  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for OKZ054>076.

AR...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-
     011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...67