657
FXUS64 KTSA 211150
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
550 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1043 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

  - Predominantly dry conditions expected Friday as most
    precipitation exits to the east, but isolated showers remain
    possible during the afternoon across northwest Arkansas.

  - Cold front Friday will drop temperatures closer to seasonal
    normals this weekend.

  - Increasing rain and thunderstorm chances late weekend into
    early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Friday Night)
Issued at 1043 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Widespread showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms were ongoing
across the forecast area as of late Thursday evening. Precipitation
will gradually shift east through the overnight hours, with PoPs
becoming increasingly confined to northwest Arkansas Friday
morning. Outside of the ongoing shower activity, patchy drizzle
and/ or light fog may develop during the overnight/ early morning
hours given the very saturated airmass.

A cold front is dragged through the forecast area today as the mid-
upper level wave begins to depart. Still, high temperatures max
out around 70 degrees across NE OK and NW AR, and in the mid-upper
70s across SE OK and W-Central AR. WNW winds will pick up
slightly behind the front today, but should generally remain
within 10 to 20 mph. A couple of showers remain possible in NW AR
this afternoon as the upper level disturbance passes just to the
north, but overall, dry conditions are forecast for much of the
day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1043 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Cooler and dry conditions are likely Saturday and early Sunday while
shortwave ridging builds over the region. Another storm system
arrives late Sunday into Monday, bringing widespread rain chances to
E OK & NW AR. Guidance has trended quicker and further north with
this system, reducing the heavy rain/ flooding threat. Still, expect
1-2 inches of rainfall (locally up to 3") within the heaviest
axis... currently aligned across SE OK and W-Central AR. Instability
continues to appear on the weaker side, but thunderstorms including
a couple of strong storms, cannot be ruled out Sunday night, mainly
in SE OK. Rain chances exit the region by late Monday. A couple of
cold fronts push into the region Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing
colder temperatures to the FA through the end of the week (Highs in
the 50s and lows in the 20s/ 30s). Dry weather is expected through
at least Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Varying ceilings from LIFR to MVFR are expected to lift back to
scatter MVFR/VFR conditions from west to east today ahead of a
cold front forecast to move through this afternoon/evening. This
evening and overnight tonight, the associated low pressure system
moves over the region, with scattered/broken MVFR ceilings
forecast to wrap back into northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. Winds through the period start out southerly and become
westerly this afternoon and west/northwest tonight. Lastly, there
remains a slight chance of rain for northwest Arkansas terminals
ahead of the front, though with uncertainties of coverage/impacts
to any one terminal will hold off on mentioning in the TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  47  62  44 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   76  52  66  47 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   75  48  65  45 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   70  43  61  39 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   72  48  62  43 /  20  10   0   0
BYV   71  49  61  44 /  30   0   0   0
MKO   73  48  63  45 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   70  46  60  43 /  20  10   0   0
F10   73  47  63  44 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   75  48  67  46 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...20