320
FXUS64 KTSA 111721
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1121 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1115 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025


 - Warming trend begins Tuesday, with much above normal
   temperatures Wednesday through Saturday.

 - Dry weather will persist until Saturday with breezy conditions
   Thursday through Saturday.

 - Shower and thunderstorm chances return this weekend continuing
   into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Winds will relax early this evening and fire weather conditions
will improve. Overnight lows will trend trend nearer seasonal
normals. A weak front will move into the region overnight with no
impact other than a wind shift expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Warming trend continues on Wednesday with light winds in wake of
the weak frontal passage. A more notable warm up occurs Thursday
with temperatures well above seasonal normals persisting through
Saturday. Winds will increase Thursday and remain breezy into the
weekend. Increasing low level moisture will help maintain higher
afternoon humidity values which will help limit fire weather
concerns, however the recent killing freeze and curing fine fuels
will be increasingly receptive to fire starts and breezy winds and
warm temps could locally enhance spread rates.

Guidance is in good agreement on a weak cold front passing late
Saturday into Sunday in advance of a wave ejecting from the
southwest CONUS into the Plains during the Sunday to Monday time
frame. This scenario likely shunts the more unstable warm sector
south of the local region but chances for showers and isolated to
scattered storms continue to increase as confidence in the system
timing grows. Temps will trend lower behind the weekend cold front
and with the increasing cloud cover and rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with scattered to
broken high cloud deck. Sfc winds will continue to gust
25-30knots in many areas early in the forecast period, then begin
to relax from NW-SE later this afternoon into the early evening
while becoming more Southwest. Another period of LLWS is forecast
early tonight at the AR and KMLC terminals, but should relax after
06z while sfc winds trending more light and variable into Wed
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   39  71  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   41  72  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   43  75  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   35  71  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   40  71  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   41  69  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   41  71  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   39  69  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
F10   41  73  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   44  73  49  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...14