084
FXUS64 KTSA 230450
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1050 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1048 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

  - Areas of fog likely tonight into Sunday, some dense fog possible.

  - Increasing rain chances again late weekend into early next week.
   Locally heavy rainfall across SE OK and NW AR is the primary
   concern.

  - After Monday, near normal temperatures and dry conditions
    forecast through the holiday week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1048 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Widespread stratus remains stubborn over northwest AR and a large
portion of northeast OK, and hasn`t shown much sign of erosion. High-
res model guidance continues to struggle handling this scenario, and
with surface high anchored over the forecast area tonight and fairly
deep inversion up to about 850mb noted on 00z sounding from KSGF, a
more pessimistic forecast of cloud cover will be made through
tonight. This also lends uncertainty to fog potential, though still
would expect further reductions to vis across parts of northwest AR,
where several stations reporting 3-5sm. Area most susceptible to
more widespread dense fog will be outside of the stratus deck, but
has not happened yet.

Any fog or low clouds will likely be slow to break up Sunday until a
little stronger low level flow becomes established. Those areas that
are able to clear should warm into thelow-mid 60s, but more
persistent clouds would hold them down considerably. It`s that time
of year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1048 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Upper low in the Southwest is forecast to continue lifting northeast
into the Central Plains by Sunday night into Monday. In response,
deep moisture will surge northward across much of the Southern
Plains with development of widespread showers and some embedded
thunderstorms as forcing begins to spread over increasingly moist
airmass. Given forecast precipitable water values above 95th
percentile by early Monday morning, any thunderstorms will be
efficient rainfall producers. Stronger wind fields also arriving
could aid in storm organization, however the greatest instability
will likely focus south of the Red River, thus the severe weather
threat will be limited to mainly southeast OK and perhaps west
central AR. An additional surge of precip during the day Monday
corresponds with arrival of strong upper jet streak, again with
instability mainly elevated and confined to areas south of I-40.
Rainfall amounts still look on the order of 1 to 2 inches from
southeast OK into west central AR, with some higher totals, with
lesser amounts to the north and west.

Dry weather returns as the upper low departs Monday with
temperatures remaining mild until a stronger cold front pushes
through Tuesday. This should bring temperatures back down below
normal with a period of gusty northwest winds Tuesday night into
Wednesday. This cool down looks short-lived as the surface low
quickly moves east by Friday, and moisture begins to return next
weekend ahead of another approaching system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1048 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Low confidence aviation forecast especially overnight into Sunday
afternoon. Stratus deck remains entrenched across most terminals
with MVFR to LIFR flight levels. Dense fog is likely to develop
where clouds have cleared and most likely impacting KBVO.
Elsewhere stratus build down will also reduce visibilities through
mid Sunday morning. The rate of ceiling rise and/or erosion is
highly uncertain tomorrow but a gradual improvement should be
realized especially during the afternoon. Showers and storms begin
to approach E OK later in this forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  45  61  52 /   0   0   0  70
FSM   62  47  67  51 /   0   0   0  70
MLC   60  46  67  53 /   0   0   0  90
BVO   57  38  61  47 /   0   0   0  60
FYV   57  45  65  49 /   0   0   0  60
BYV   55  46  63  48 /   0   0   0  40
MKO   59  46  62  51 /   0   0   0  80
MIO   55  42  62  49 /   0   0   0  60
F10   60  44  64  51 /   0   0   0  90
HHW   63  46  64  52 /   0   0   0  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for OKZ054>056-059.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...07