Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
434 FXUS64 KTSA 081443 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 943 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1206 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 - Near average temperatures today with predominantly dry conditions. Unseasonably warm temperatures return late this week through the weekend. - Increasing southerly winds and the warm conditions will aid in limited fire weather concerns for the weekend. - Low rain chances may return early next week, but confidence remains low at this time. && .UPDATE... Issued at 942 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 Stratus evolution across portions of E OK / NW AR will be the primary update this morning. A clearing trend is expected into the afternoon and temps are on track with the latest guidance. && .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 Mostly quiet conditions are expected today under the influence of post-frontal high pressure. Some CAMs continue to suggest low potential for a few elevated showers this morning in eastern Oklahoma, but produce negligible QPF. There is also a very low chance of rain (<10%) across southeastern Oklahoma this afternoon/ early evening associated with weak low level convergence. However, any showers are likely to remain sparse at best with little or no QPF. As such, a pleasant October day is expected overall, with highs in the 70s (lower 80s south), clearing skies, and light ENE winds. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 The aforementioned sfc high begins to shift east tonight and Thursday with waning influence. At the same time, 500 mb flow becomes increasingly northwesterly, with a weak wave moving through the C Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley tonight into tomorrow. All in all, conditions Thursday should be comparable to today, if not a degree or two warmer. Upper level ridging expands across the region by Friday with southerly flow returning at the surface. Meanwhile, a potent upper low navigates across the Great Lakes, sending a cold front southward towards our area. This feature is currently forecast to wash out before reaching the CWA with little impact expected at this time. Altogether, temps are forecast to increase further with highs mostly in the 80s on Friday. Longwave troughing develops across the W CONUS this weekend, eventually acting to suppress high pressure over our area, and potentially inviting increasing rain potential by early next week. Models continue to differ with timing and placement of the associated frontal boundary and the best rain chances, so will stick with NBM initialization for now. This provides 10-20% PoPs across portions of NE OK Monday and Tuesday. In advance of the aforementioned trough, pressure gradients will tighten and produce increasing south winds at 10-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph on Sunday, especially along and north of I-44. In combination with min RH values in the 25 to 40% range and lack of recent wetting rains, a limited fire weather threat is forecast to develop in areas along and west of Highway 75 in NE OK Sunday afternoon. After a couple seasonably cool nights tonight and Thursday night (50s and upper 40s in NW AR) temperatures will rebound and run above average this weekend into next week with highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 50s/ 60s. If the wetter solutions were to verify early next week, temperatures may cool closer to average Monday/ Tuesday. For now, a generally warm and dry forecast continues for eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 An east-west band of IFR/MVFR cigs stretching from NW AR to NE/EC OK will impact KTUL/KRVS/KXNA/KFYV TAF sites for the first few hours. Low clouds coming off of Lake Eufaula is impacting KMLC with IFR cigs. Finally, MVFR to low-end VFR cigs are expected thru the day at KFSM. Skies will clear by this evening most places. Increasing mid cloud is expected at the NE OK sites after 06Z. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 78 59 81 58 / 10 10 10 0 FSM 80 58 80 55 / 10 0 0 0 MLC 83 58 82 54 / 10 10 0 0 BVO 76 53 79 54 / 10 0 10 0 FYV 77 51 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 74 51 74 50 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 80 59 79 56 / 10 10 10 0 MIO 77 54 77 54 / 0 0 10 0 F10 80 58 81 55 / 10 10 10 0 HHW 83 60 80 55 / 10 10 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....43 AVIATION...30