Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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343
FXUS64 KTSA 161810
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1210 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1210 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

 - Low shower and storm chances early Monday and again Monday
   night.

 - Temps return well above normal Monday and Tuesday.

 - Unsettled pattern begins Tuesday night w/ increasing shower and
   thunderstorm chances. Widespread showers and storms Wednesday
   night through Thursday night.

 - A few strong to severe storms possible during the mid week time
   frame with primary hazard becoming heavy rainfall and
   associated flooding potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1210 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas remains north of a weak
frontal boundary that moved through yesterday with slightly cooler
conditions this afternoon. A drier low level airmass behind this
boundary lagged behind with the northern extent of the low level
moisture/Theta-e axis just south of Interstate 40 as of late
morning Sunday. Easterly winds in the lowest levels should help
this axis to sag south/southwest through this evening, setting up
just west/southwest of the CWA. In response, afternoon min
relative humidity levels generally less than 45 percent could
create areas of limited fire weather concern over the CWA this
afternoon.

Overnight tonight, southerly low level flow begins to return while
a weak mid/upper level ridge pushes east of the CWA. This return
flow will begin to lift the boundary back northeast as a warm
front into the CWA. Increasing warm advection/isentropic lift
ahead of the front could create isolated to widely scattered light
rain showers over western Arkansas late tonight into Monday
morning before exiting Monday afternoon. At the same time,
increasing elevated instability tonight will create a slight
chance of thunder with this activity Monday morning. With the
front retreating into the CWA and the return of southerly flow,
temperatures tonight remain warm with lows in the 50s to upper
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1210 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

The warm front is progged to reach into northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas Monday afternoon. Behind the warm front, well
above seasonal average temperatures set up over much of eastern
Oklahoma with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Where cloud cover
hangs on the longest and also ahead of the front, afternoon
temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s are forecast over northwest
Arkansas.

A shortwave is forecast to move out into the Plans Monday/Monday
night with a trailing weak frontal boundary that moves into the
CWA Monday night and Tuesday. The combination of this wave, the
exiting warm front and an increasing low level jet Monday night
will allow for low chances of showers and storms over mainly
portions of western Arkansas. This activity looks to exit early
Tuesday morning with the push of the trailing frontal boundary.

This second boundary lifts back northwest Tuesday night/Wednesday
as southerly low level flow and moisture advection increases from a
more defined area of low pressure moving into the Desert
Southwest. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Tuesday night
with the lifting boundary and then expands across the CWA
Wednesday through Thursday night with the approach of the wave
moving out into the Central/Southern Plains. During the day
Wednesday, increasing instability will help to develop a limited
strong to severe storm potential. This potential as well as
overall thunder potentials look to weaken Wednesday night with a
heavy rain threat becoming the primary impact Thursday/Thursday
night. Latest model solutions have backed off slightly on QPF
during the time period from the wave being a little more
progressive. However, precipitable water values in excess of 1.5
inches still remain forecast which will continue the heavy rain
threat that could lead to an increase in flooding concerns.

With the slightly more progressive nature of the wave, the heavy
rain threat looks to taper off from west to east Friday with a
potential associated dry slot lifting into the region Friday
morning. A cold front moves through during the day Friday while
the wave continues its east/northeast track through the central
U.S. Behind this departing wave, cooler conditions and northerly
winds set up for the weekend. There are some indications of
another shortwave quickly moving through the Southern Plains over
the weekend that could potentially spread additional rain shower
chances into the CWA late weekend. Will have to wait and see how
this evolves through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR conditions will largely prevail through the forecast period.
Upglide increases overnight with a quickly developing mid cloud
field overspreading the local terminals. Forecast trends favor low
VFR ceiling heights through Monday morning with the exception
being SE OK where MVFR heights develop nearer the higher moisture
return axis. Expect isolated to scattered showers late tonight
into early Monday primarily across western AR. Any flight level
impacts would be brief given overall coverage and quick
northeastward motion.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  55  78  61 /   0   0  10  10
FSM   77  55  74  64 /   0  10  20  20
MLC   80  59  82  67 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   73  47  75  53 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   74  50  67  61 /   0   0  20  20
BYV   69  49  65  59 /   0   0  30  30
MKO   77  56  78  63 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   71  50  71  60 /   0   0  10  20
F10   77  56  81  64 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   79  61  82  68 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...07