Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
264 FXUS64 KTSA 010526 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1226 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1226 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025 - Patchy fog could impact Wednesday morning commute. - Mostly dry weather with above normal temperatures this week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025 Patchy fog around the area this morning could be dense in spots and impact the morning commute, especially across portions of northwest Arkansas. Ample sunshine should aid in the fog quickly dissipating by mid morning with an otherwise un-impactful forecast in place for the rest of the day. The surface ridge axis remains planted over the region throughout today, while upper level ridging begins to expand into the area from the southwest. This will allow temperatures to creep up a couple degrees this afternoon from yesterday, with highs generally in the upper 80s across the region under clear skies and light easterly to southeasterly winds. Another mild night will be in store as lows only drop into the 60s to upper 50s in some of the normally cooler locations. Bowlan && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025 Upper ridging expands and strengthens heading into Thursday and Friday, which should be the warmest days of the period. Many places across eastern Oklahoma will likely approach or exceed 90 degrees each afternoon. Increasing low to mid level moisture across western Arkansas on the western fringe of the exiting low level ridge axis could lead to a few afternoon showers or possibly a thunderstorm on Thursday. Coverage of any shower activity would be rather spotty at best, but a few locations could see some rain Thursday afternoon and at least low (10-15%) PoPs will be maintained through this period. The mid level ridge will strengthen by Friday removing any chance of showers Friday afternoon across the region and once again highs will approach 90 degrees. Heading into the weekend, an upper level trough moving through the Desert Southwest and lifting northeast across the Central and Northern Plains will act to push the ridge back south of the region and allow temperatures to come down slightly, though still well above normal for this time of year. Trends have continued to show that a frontal boundary will remain well north of the local region as this wave lifts northeast into Canada and thus, rain chances remain minimal (10% or less) through the weekend. Next week is a little more uncertain at this point, though guidance has come into better agreement in bringing a tropical low out of the Gulf northward across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas early next week. This would at least allow for some scattered showers during the afternoon as moisture increases. We will again be watching for a frontal boundary to drop down into the region by the middle to latter part of next week with better rain chances and cooler temperatures, though the bulk of ensemble guidance remains mainly warm and dry through the next 7 to 10 days. Bowlan && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025 Patchy dense fog may develop through sunrise, specifically at FYV and ROG, underneath mostly clear skies and light winds. Occasional reduced visibilities may also occur at BVO, RVS, and FSM, though confidence of density, duration, and coverage of fog are low for these sites. Any fog that does develop should lift and dissipate by 14-15z this morning. Aside from the impacts of fog, VFR conditions will prevail with FEW-SCT mid/upper-level clouds and light winds. Model guidance suggests fog potential looks less likely late tonight into Thursday morning. Mejia && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 87 64 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 88 66 90 65 / 0 0 10 10 MLC 88 62 90 65 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 86 59 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 86 60 87 62 / 0 0 10 0 BYV 85 61 85 61 / 0 0 10 0 MKO 86 63 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 86 62 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 F10 87 62 90 63 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 86 63 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...67