139
FXUS64 KTSA 182313
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
613 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

 - Low chances (10-30%) of showers and thunderstorms through
   sunset this evening for portions of northwest Arkansas. Severe
   weather and flash flooding threats are not expected.

 - Precipitation chances sharply drop off and temperatures
   increase by this evening as ridging builds in aloft. Hot,
   humid, and dry weather will likely persist through the weekend
   and into next week.

 - Heat headlines will be likely each day through the forecast
   period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Frontal boundary that was draped across northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas last night continues to lift northward into
the Central Plains and Midwest Regions. Residual showers and
thunderstorms from this morning have since dissipated or moved
northeast of the area. A few isolated showers/storms may redevelop
later this afternoon along a confluence zone from a
surface/outflow boundary that is currently draped across far
northwest Arkansas. Hi-res models show this boundary may slide
east of the forecast area as the afternoon progresses.
Nevertheless, kept in some low-end PoPs (10-30%) for Carroll,
Madison, and eastern portions of Washington and Benton Counties
through sunset this evening. No impacts (severe/flooding) are
expected this afternoon or evening.

Otherwise, mid/upper-level ridging continues to expand into the
region from the west Atlantic/Southeast CONUS. Temperatures have
already climbed into the upper 80s and lower 90s early this
afternoon. Heat index values are currently hovering in the mid-
upper 90s and near 100F in spots. A Heat Advisory (heat index
values 105-109F) remains in effect for portions of the Arkansas
River Valley in AR, as well portions of northeast Oklahoma
through 8 PM this evening. The strengthening ridge will keep
temperatures mild and begin to put a lid on precipitation chances
beginning this evening. Overnight lows tonight will range from the
lower-middle 70s.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Heat stress will be the main impact in the long-term. Upper-level
ridging will continue to shift over the Southern Plains and
strengthen this weekend and through much of next week. This will
maintain mostly dry and unseasonably hot weather through the
majority of the long-term period. Afternoon high temperatures are
expected to soar into the mid-upper 90s each afternoon through
the early part of next week as the central part of the upper ridge
hovers over the northern Gulf Coast. By midweek, guidance has
been consistent showing temperatures warming further, with
widespread highs in the upper 90s/near 100F, as the ridge moves
northward and onshore and eventually over the lower/middle
Mississippi River Valley. Anticipate daily heat headlines for at
least portions, if not majority, of the forecast area through the
period. Summer has arrived.

Another Heat Advisory has been issued for tomorrow (Saturday)
afternoon for locations along/near the Arkansas River Valley and
portions of northeast Oklahoma near/just east of of Highway 75.
Regardless if in the advisory or not, it is imperative to take
necessary heat precautions, especially if spending or working
outdoors for a prolonged period of time during the daytime.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Convection that developed this afternoon over north central OK has moved
into south central KS this evening. Activity is supported by an MCV,
and potential of any of this impacting BVO still looks too low to
mention. Very low chance of anything developing nwrn AR through
sunset as well, in the shrinking cumulus field that area. Some light
fog/MVFR VSBYs still look possible late tonight nwrn AR sites.
Otherwise, VFR all sites this forecast period with light wind
overnight, and a south wind increasing Saturday by mid-morning with
gusts to near 20 mph most sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  96  77  97 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   76  97  76  97 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   74  96  76  96 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   74  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   73  94  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   73  95  74  95 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   74  95  75  95 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   74  94  75  95 /  10  10   0   0
F10   74  95  75  96 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   73  94  75  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-060>062-
     066-067-070>076.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ055>057-
     060>062-066-067-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...69