674
FXUS64 KTSA 011127
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
627 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 625 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

 - A cold front arrives this morning into this afternoon, bringing
   low rain chances, as well as a brief period of below normal
   temperatures through the weekend.

 - Additional frost and freeze conditions will occur tonight and
   Sunday morning. A Freeze Watch remains in effect for portions of
   eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

 - Well above normal temperatures return early next week with
   predominantly dry conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Longwave infrared and upper-level water vapor satellite imagery show
a well defined upper-level low spinning over the IA/MN border. RAP
surface analysis showed a subtle cold front analyzed from central MO
through southeast KS and into northern OK.  This front will work its
way through the forecast area this morning and into this afternoon.
A mixture of light rain, sprinkles, and possibly some drizzle may
accompany the frontal boundary as it moves through the region. The
highest rain potential (20-30% chance) and QPF exists across
northeast OK and into northwest AR, but rainfall amounts are likely
to remain light, with just a few hundredths to a couple of tenths of
an inch. Hi-res models show a secondary push of slightly cooler and
drier air during the afternoon, with dewpoints dropping into the
30s, behind the initial frontal boundary.

Temperatures today will be a little tricky and dependent on cloud
cover thickness and duration, as well as exact timing of the frontal
boundary. Highs will likely struggle to get out of the 50s north of
I-40, with temperatures reaching the low-mid 60s south of I-40.
Winds are not expected to be overly gusty following the front, but
sustained speeds 10-15 mph, with occasional gusts around 20 mph are
probable through mid-late afternoon. Winds will drop off fairly
quickly by or just after sunset.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Surface high pressure will rapidly build into the region this
evening into late tonight. As this occurs, clouds will clear and
winds will sharply decrease from northwest to southeast after sunset
this evening and will set the stage for strong radiational cooling.
A widespread freeze is anticipated overnight tonight as lows fall
into the upper 20s to lower 30s in most locations. A Freeze Watch
remains in effect for most counties in the forecast area. There is
high confidence that this Watch will be upgraded to a Warning by
this afternoon. The exception to the freezing temperatures will be
across Pushmataha and Choctaw counties and in the AR River Valley,
where temperatures are forecast to remain a few degrees above
freezing. However, temperatures will be low enough for widespread
frost development and a Frost Advisory will need to be issued for
tonight for these areas by this afternoon.

Surface high pressure and upper-level ridging will build into the
region by Sunday and a steady warming/dry trend will commence
through at least the middle part of next week. Above seasonal average
temperatures will return by Monday with well above average
temperatures by Tuesday. A frontal boundary will approach the area
from the north on Wednesday, but consensus in forecast guidance
keeps the front north the area before lifting north. The next mid-
level trough will move off the Rockies and over the Plains by
Thursday afternoon. As this occurs, strong surface low pressure will
develop across the Southern High Plains and a tight pressure
gradient will cause breezy/gusty southerly winds through the
afternoon. This will also cause the warmest day of the period, with
afternoon high temperatures surging into the mid-upper 70s in most
spots. As the upper-level trough strengthens and shifts northeast of
the area Thursday night into Friday, a cold front will move across
eastern OK and northwest AR during the morning Friday. The front may
bring in some low precipitation chances, especially for northeast OK
and northwest AR.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period. A few very light
showers will spread across NE OK and NW AR this morning behind a
frontal boundary. Generally light northerly winds less than 10
knots will prevail with skies beginning to clear this afternoon.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  33  62  44 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   61  36  60  40 /  30   0   0   0
MLC   63  33  65  43 /  20   0   0   0
BVO   56  28  60  39 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   57  28  57  38 /  30   0   0   0
BYV   55  32  56  39 /  30   0   0   0
MKO   60  32  61  44 /  30   0   0   0
MIO   55  31  58  42 /  30   0   0   0
F10   60  32  63  44 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   64  36  63  41 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
     OKZ054>076.

AR...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for ARZ001-
     002-010-011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...04