Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
343 FXUS64 KTSA 161810 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1210 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1210 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Low shower and storm chances early Monday and again Monday night. - Temps return well above normal Monday and Tuesday. - Unsettled pattern begins Tuesday night w/ increasing shower and thunderstorm chances. Widespread showers and storms Wednesday night through Thursday night. - A few strong to severe storms possible during the mid week time frame with primary hazard becoming heavy rainfall and associated flooding potential. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1210 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas remains north of a weak frontal boundary that moved through yesterday with slightly cooler conditions this afternoon. A drier low level airmass behind this boundary lagged behind with the northern extent of the low level moisture/Theta-e axis just south of Interstate 40 as of late morning Sunday. Easterly winds in the lowest levels should help this axis to sag south/southwest through this evening, setting up just west/southwest of the CWA. In response, afternoon min relative humidity levels generally less than 45 percent could create areas of limited fire weather concern over the CWA this afternoon. Overnight tonight, southerly low level flow begins to return while a weak mid/upper level ridge pushes east of the CWA. This return flow will begin to lift the boundary back northeast as a warm front into the CWA. Increasing warm advection/isentropic lift ahead of the front could create isolated to widely scattered light rain showers over western Arkansas late tonight into Monday morning before exiting Monday afternoon. At the same time, increasing elevated instability tonight will create a slight chance of thunder with this activity Monday morning. With the front retreating into the CWA and the return of southerly flow, temperatures tonight remain warm with lows in the 50s to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 1210 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 The warm front is progged to reach into northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Monday afternoon. Behind the warm front, well above seasonal average temperatures set up over much of eastern Oklahoma with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Where cloud cover hangs on the longest and also ahead of the front, afternoon temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s are forecast over northwest Arkansas. A shortwave is forecast to move out into the Plans Monday/Monday night with a trailing weak frontal boundary that moves into the CWA Monday night and Tuesday. The combination of this wave, the exiting warm front and an increasing low level jet Monday night will allow for low chances of showers and storms over mainly portions of western Arkansas. This activity looks to exit early Tuesday morning with the push of the trailing frontal boundary. This second boundary lifts back northwest Tuesday night/Wednesday as southerly low level flow and moisture advection increases from a more defined area of low pressure moving into the Desert Southwest. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Tuesday night with the lifting boundary and then expands across the CWA Wednesday through Thursday night with the approach of the wave moving out into the Central/Southern Plains. During the day Wednesday, increasing instability will help to develop a limited strong to severe storm potential. This potential as well as overall thunder potentials look to weaken Wednesday night with a heavy rain threat becoming the primary impact Thursday/Thursday night. Latest model solutions have backed off slightly on QPF during the time period from the wave being a little more progressive. However, precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches still remain forecast which will continue the heavy rain threat that could lead to an increase in flooding concerns. With the slightly more progressive nature of the wave, the heavy rain threat looks to taper off from west to east Friday with a potential associated dry slot lifting into the region Friday morning. A cold front moves through during the day Friday while the wave continues its east/northeast track through the central U.S. Behind this departing wave, cooler conditions and northerly winds set up for the weekend. There are some indications of another shortwave quickly moving through the Southern Plains over the weekend that could potentially spread additional rain shower chances into the CWA late weekend. Will have to wait and see how this evolves through the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 VFR conditions will largely prevail through the forecast period. Upglide increases overnight with a quickly developing mid cloud field overspreading the local terminals. Forecast trends favor low VFR ceiling heights through Monday morning with the exception being SE OK where MVFR heights develop nearer the higher moisture return axis. Expect isolated to scattered showers late tonight into early Monday primarily across western AR. Any flight level impacts would be brief given overall coverage and quick northeastward motion. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 75 55 78 61 / 0 0 10 10 FSM 77 55 74 64 / 0 10 20 20 MLC 80 59 82 67 / 0 10 10 10 BVO 73 47 75 53 / 0 0 10 10 FYV 74 50 67 61 / 0 0 20 20 BYV 69 49 65 59 / 0 0 30 30 MKO 77 56 78 63 / 0 0 10 10 MIO 71 50 71 60 / 0 0 10 20 F10 77 56 81 64 / 0 0 10 10 HHW 79 61 82 68 / 0 10 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...07