026
FXUS65 KTWC 132017
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
117 PM MST Sat Sep 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will again
be possible south and east of Tucson. An isolated risk of strong
winds, large hail, heavy rain, and blowing dust will accompany these
thunderstorms. Dry air moves in tomorrow leading resulting in little
to no chances for precipitation. Temperatures transition from below
normal this weekend to above normal next week with a modest return
of thunderstorm chances Tuesday and the end of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...At the time of this writing scattered thunderstorms
have been moving across the northeast quadrant of Cochise County
with additional storms building on the southern extent of the
line. This sustained cluster of storms can be attributed to both
synoptic scale ascent from an upper trough moving across southeast
Arizona today as well as localized enhanced lift from terrain
including the Dragoon, Chiricahua, and Huachuca Mountain ranges.
As the base of the trough continues to pass over our eastern areas
over the next few hours, afternoon thunderstorm development may
continue primarily over eastern and southern portions of Cochise
County. So far, heavy rainfall has been the primary hazard as the
storms continue to move into a modest moisture environment with
sufficient instability. As for hail, deep layer shear is still
estimated to be around 35-55 kts which would support sustained
storm updrafts with hail if they continue to form this afternoon.
Wind on the other hand, the energy available to enhance downdrafts
is limited within the modestly moist environment. However,
outflow winds may still be locally enhanced resulting in blowing
dust with any stronger storms.

Tomorrow into next week temperatures will begin to rebound with the
trough passage with highs in the mid to upper 80s to the south and
east of Tucson and in the mid to upper 90s from Tucson west.
Precipitation chances will be minimal (10-20%) mainly confined to
the Huachuca and Chiricahua Mountains and along the international
border before signs of modest push of moisture by the latter half of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 15/00Z.
Scattered strong thunderstorms possible this afternoon mainly east
of a KTUS-KOLS line. Best chances for storms will be at the KDUG and
KSAD terminals through 14/03Z. Winds near the strongest storms
may gust up to 50 kts and contain hail to around 1 inch in
diameter. Otherwise, SFC winds will be SWLY to WLY (becoming WLY
to NWLY at KTUS and KSAD) with speeds of 9-12 kts. Outside of
thunderstorms, Ocnl gusts to 20-25 kts through 14/02Z. Overnight,
expect light and VRBL winds. Tomorrow, dry weather returns with
similar SFC winds. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Minimum RH values will be in the 20-35 percent
range this afternoon, lowering into the 15-30 percent range tomorrow
and Monday, then back into the 20-35 percent range. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly for Cochise County and
east Santa Cruz County this afternoon. Thunderstorms will have a
risk of very strong gusty winds, hail, and heavy rainfall. Dry area-
wide tomorrow, then a slight chance of thunderstorms south and east
of Tucson return again next week. Outside of thunderstorm outflows,
expect 20-foot winds to be 15 mph or less, with some afternoon/early
evening gusts to around 25 mph.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DVS

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