Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
776 FXUS65 KTWC 011939 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 1239 PM MST Wed Oct 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will prevail this week. Afternoon high temperatures will warm to levels about 5 degrees above normal by Thursday and Friday before cooling back down closer to near normal levels this weekend. Breezy southwest winds are expected this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Sunny skies today across Arizona as high pressure continues to build. Temperatures will continue to rise this week, peaking tomorrow and Friday. High temperatures could surpass 100 degrees pushing temperatures 3 to 5 degrees above normal. In Tucson there is a 5% chance that high temperatures will be greater than 100 degrees tomorrow and Friday. Temperatures will cool slightly over the weekend as a low pressure system moves into northern Arizona from the Pacific Northwest tightening the pressure gradient and increasing southwest winds at the surface. There is a 50-60% chance for greater than 35 MPH wind gusts over the weekend focused to areas from Tucson south and southeast. Relative humidities will also be low over the weekend, between 12-20%, in the lower valleys. After the trough passes well to the north of us over the weekend, high pressure begins to build again centered in Texas. This will influence a warming trend early next week, rising temperatures again to above normal pushing highs into the upper 90s to low 100s. In Tucson there is currently a 5% chance of greater than 100 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Post the middle of next week, there is uncertainty in ensemble model projections of what may transpire. The GEFS, ECMWF, and the Canadian hint at a tropical disturbance developing in the eastern Pacific off the west coast of southern Mexico early Sunday. Quickly, the models deviate in the path and intensity of such tropical disturbance though. This is of course in the 7-10 day forecast period so take this with a large grain of salt. Stay tuned! && .AVIATION...Valid through 03/00Z. SKC through 02/20Z becoming FEW AOA 10-12k ft AGL focused to areas south and southeast of KTUS. SFC winds will be from the northwest generally less than 12 kts becoming southeasterly overnight. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions prevail this week across southeast Arizona. Winds generally south to southwest through this week with speeds up to 15 mph and gusts up to 20-25 mph. Minimum RHs between 15-25 percent through the week as a drier airmass becomes more established across Southeast Arizona. Temperatures warming to above normal levels by the second half of the week. Breezy southwest winds will be present starting Friday through next Monday, with the strongest wind gusts 30-35 mph expected Saturday. && && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Malarkey Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson