451
FXUS65 KTWC 302039
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
139 PM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather with near normal temperatures are expected through the
middle of the week. A weak weather system will bring cooler
weather and a chance of showers Wednesday to Thursday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
 *Dry and seasonable temperatures continue through Wednesday.
 *A weak weather system may bring a chance of rain showers and
  high mountain snow late Wednesday into early Thursday. Medium
  confidence in this forecast.
 *Colder temperatures are likely Friday through the weekend.
  Freezing overnight temperatures possible over the mountains and
  eastern valleys.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Dry and seasonable weather persists across southern Arizona as we
remain under northwesterly flow aloft. Water vapor satellite
imagery shows a shortwave trough moving southeastward across the
Great Basin. Forecast models keep this system to our northeast
resulting in no meaningful change in weather besides some
variable cloud cover. Temperatures as of this writing are in the
upper 60s to lower 70s across the valleys and are on track to
reach the lower to mid 70s.

Little change is expected in the weather pattern after the
aforementioned system passes through Monday. We will remain in dry
northwesterly flow aloft, allowing for dry weather to continue
with high temperatures generally within a few degrees of normal
for this time of year.

We continue to monitor the next weather system which will have a
Wednesday to Thursday timeframe for arrival. WPC Cluster analysis
shows that there is still considerable uncertainty in the model
handling of this system, with the bulk of the variance related to
how deep the system will be. Regardless, this weather system
should be a bit stronger than today`s, and current forecasts have
a 20-50% chance of precipitation, with higher values favoring the
eastern portions of AZ. Impact with this system will be relatively
small except for the potential of mountain snow. Snow levels start
around 7500-8000 ft should precipitation occur, then drop to
6000-7000 ft as the system passes through.

Low temperatures will likely reach below freezing across the
higher mountains and across the eastern valleys after this system
passes through Friday morning into the weekend. Afterward,
temperatures will gradually rebound toward near normal levels with
dry weather returning.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 02/00Z.
FEW-SCT clouds at or above 20k ft AGL through the forecast period.
SFC wind 12 kts or less, favoring a SWLY to NWLY direction during
the afternoon/early evening hours and variable in direction at
other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions prevail Tuesday and Wednesday before precipitation
chances return area-wide Thursday into Friday. Above normal high
temperatures continue today, cooling to slightly below normal
levels Monday, then right around normal Tuesday and Wednesday,
lowering to below normal late in the week. Min RH values will be
in the 20-30 percent range through Wednesday, increasing to 40-50
percent Thursday and Friday. 20-foot sustained winds of 15 mph or
less are expected through Tuesday, with the potential for some
elevated southwest winds Wednesday especially to the southeast of
Tucson.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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