Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
810 FXUS65 KTWC 262018 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 118 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Warmer temperatures through Friday as above normal temperatures prevail. Cooler temperatures return with highs near normal this weekend, with additional cooling to slightly below normal levels early next week. Dry conditions through Sunday before a weather system brushes by mainly to our north with the chance of a few showers Sunday night into Monday. Dry weather returns Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION...Mostly sunny skies prevail this afternoon across southeast Arizona with just a few cirroform clouds as ridge axis is located just to our south and west. This ridge will move to our east by Thursday morning with southwesterly flow aloft resulting in increased high level clouds during the day Thursday. However, with elevated heights and increased low level thicknesses, that will allow temperatures to peak at about 4 to 9 degrees above normal for Thanksgiving Day. Dry westerly flow continues Friday with highs nudging down a few degrees from Tucson westward and remaining similar to Thursday east of Tucson. Thereafter, a weak shortwave will pass to our north late Friday into Saturday and bring a return to seasonable temperatures both Saturday and Sunday. Over the past few days we`ve been talking about a system later in the weekend into early next week. Ensembles (and deterministic models) have continued to back away from any notable impacts as it will be more progressive and just brush by closer to the Four Corners region. This scenario would bring with it a frontal passage for cooler temperatures early next week, perhaps a few breezes Sunday and just a 10-30 percent chance of showers Sunday night into Monday with the best chances north to northeast of Tucson. Dry next Tuesday then potential for another system to impact our area mid to late next week. && .AVIATION...Valid through 28/00Z. SCT to occasionally BKN clouds AOA 20k thru 27/18Z, then lowering to AOA 15k ft AGL thru the end of the valid period. SFC winds mainly ELY/SELY 6-12 kts with a few higher gusts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions through the day Sunday, then a weather system will bring a 10 to 30 percent chance of valley rain and mountain snow Sunday night into Monday. Above normal temperatures through Friday, before cooling to near normal levels this weekend and slightly below normal early next week. Min RH values will continue to be in the 20-30 percent through Sunday, before briefly rising to 30-40 percent Monday. 20-foot winds through Thursday will favor easterly to southeasterly direction, otherwise normal diurnal trends with speeds 5 to 15 mph and occasional afternoon gusts through Saturday then breezy 15 to 25 mph Sunday. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson