745
FXUS65 KTWC 232212
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
312 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Lingering isolated showers continue into the early
evening hours east of Tucson with clouds decreasing from west to
east. High temps cool to below normal this afternoon and Monday,
then begin a warming trend through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Southeast Arizona is now on the back side of a storm
system that has ejected into the central and southern Rockies. All
that is left in the wake of this system is lingering low clouds
which should begin to clear out this evening, but kept slim chances
(10-15%) for isolated showers mainly from Tucson east and north
through early evening.

As the clouds clear out this evening we will have rapid cooling at
the surface where we just had periods of showers increasing the
possibility for patchy fog formation. Latest run of the HREF
depicted low clouds for valley locations that correspond well with
chances for hitting low visibility thresholds tomorrow morning and
perhaps again on Tuesday morning. While widespread dense fog is not
anticipated, chances for patchy fog with visibility reductions to
under 4 miles will increase after midnight and will remain elevated
(20-60%) through mid-morning. Areas that could see impacts from
reduced visibility will be along Interstate 10 near Willox,
Interstate 10 between Tucson and Phoenix, US 191 in the Sulphur
Springs Valley, and Arizona Highways in Cochise County. Drivers
should be prepared for reduced visibility and drive with caution.

This afternoon and tomorrow temperatures will be below normal,
although tomorrow will warm by a few degrees areawide. Behind the
exiting storm system a ridge of higher pressure developing just off
the coast of California will result in gradual warming from Tuesday
through Friday. High temperatures warm to a few degrees above normal
Wednesday through Friday. Morning temperatures will be on the cool
side with valleys east of Tucson seeing temperatures at or near
freezing, especially in the Sulphur Springs Valley. Next weekend
into early next week ensembles show another Pacific trough
potentially moving through, which could bring another round of
precipitation and cooler temperatures. Right now the NBM introduces
PoPs Sunday, but lots of uncertainty this far out with the timing of
the trough.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 25/00Z.
BKN ceilings 4k-8k ft AGL and isolated -SHRA thru this afternoon,
then slowly dissipating after 24/03Z. MVFR cigs will be possible at
KOLS and KDUG. MVFR vsby will be possible at KOLS and KDUG from
24/09Z through 24/15Z. SFC winds westerly at 5-10 kts this afternoon
and early evening becoming VRBL after 24/03Z. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated showers to the east of Tucson will
dissipate from west to east early this evening. Light mountain snow
will also be possible above 7500 feet. Temperatures will be below
normal today and Monday, then a warming trend takes over. Min RH
will be 30-60 percent through Tuesday, dropping to 20-30 percent
thereafter. 20 foot winds follow normal diurnal trends with speeds 5
to 10 mph and occasional afternoon gusts.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DVS

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