Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
052 FXUS65 KTWC 071004 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 304 AM MST Fri Nov 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm conditions continues through the coming week. Sunday through early Tuesday will have easterly breezes. Temperatures in Graham, Greenlee, and Cochise counties will fall to near normal Sunday, with the potential for a morning freeze in eastern valleys early next week. && .DISCUSSION... An amplifying upper level pattern over the eastern Pacific through the western United States will keep southeastern Arizona on the warmer side today and Saturday. On Sunday a backdoor cold front pushes cooler air from the east into eastern areas of southeastern Arizona, mainly Graham, Greenlee, and Cochise counties where high temperatures will fall to near normal. A tightening pressure gradient between the deepening low to the east and building ridge over the western US will bring easterly 10-20 mph winds Sunday into Monday, especially in areas exposed to east/southeast flow. That cooler air mass may pose a freezing risk in eastern valleys Monday and Tuesday mornings. The mitigating factor, at least initially, will be the potential for easterly winds to last through Monday morning. This would prevent the effects of radiational cooling and likely keep temperatures above freezing. However the pressure gradient will likely have weakened by Tuesday morning, bringing a greater chance of freezing temperatures. Current NBM probabilities of sub-freezing morning lows in the Sulphur Springs Valley range from 25-45 percent both mornings, though again if winds hold on Monday morning the chance of freezing temperatures will be greater Tuesday. Just out of the scope of the seven day forecast period is the potential for western CONUS troughing by the end of next week. There remains plenty of details to work out however and high uncertainty still remains. Looking at the deterministic 00Z GFS/ECMWF/Canadian guidance in the Pacific leading up to next weekend, all three models show multiple closed lows developing then subsequently merging with the polar jet before moving into the western US. These type of chaotic interactions add uncertainty to a forecast and that plays out in the NBM`s temperature probabilities for next Saturday (11/15) with the 25th to 75th percentiles featuring a 20 degree spread in both highs and lows. All that to say while a deeper trough (as shown by some ensemble members of each model core) would bring cooler temperatures, increased winds, and precipitation chances...a less substantial system or one that at least holds off for several days is also a distinct possibility. && .AVIATION...Valid through 08/12Z. Mainly SKC through the forecast period. Winds light and terrain driven, mainly under 12 kts though an occasional afternoon gust up to 20 kts possible. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry and unseasonably warm conditions for the next week with afternoon high temperatures generally 4 to 9 degrees above normal. Minimum RH values over the next week will remain in the 12- 22 percent range. 20-foot winds through Saturday will be terrain and diurnally driven less than 12 mph with local gusts to 20 mph during the afternoon hours each day. Winds turn easterly Sunday morning and lasting into Monday due to a frontal boundary pushes in from the east. These east winds will be highest in areas exposed to east/southeast flow, especially in the Gila River Valley where 10-20 mph winds with gusts to 35 mph are forecast Sunday. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Public...Edwards Aviation...Edwards Fire Weather....Edwards Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson