599
FXUS63 KUNR 090752
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1252 AM MST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow showers/flurries will continue through early this
  morning across western SD. Accumulations should be minimal.

- Chilly tonight with lows in the teens to 20s and wind chills
  dipping into the single digits across much of the western SD
  plains.

- Warm and dry through most of next week with highs 10-15F above
  average

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Saturday)
Issued at 1251 AM MST Sun Nov 9 2025

Most recent upper air analysis depicts strong 300mb jet streak
(130-140kt) extending from the Canadian border southward into
eastern WY and CO. A few light snow showers/flurries have
developed over western SD, this activity should continue through
the rest of the night into early tomorrow morning (especially
close to the Black Hills) though not expecting much in terms of
accumulations. Sfc high moves south over the Dakotas today,
bringing cold air with it. The core of the coldest temps should be
east of the CWA but it will still be on the cool side today with
highs in the 30s to low 40s. Cold night on tap with lows dipping
into the teens to 20s, with the coldest conditions on the eastern
half of the CWA. Wind chills Monday morning will be in the teens
to single digits across much of the western SD plains.

Ridge builds over the western half of the US through Sunday as
eastern CONUS deepens. Temperatures climb through the day Monday
as breezy return flow develops over the Northern Plains with highs
climbing into the 50s to 60s. Temperatures will continue warm
through the first half of the week as the ridge builds. Ensemble
guidance in good agreement of highs +10-15F above average through
the next week with highs in the upper 50s to 60s. Weather should
be mainly dry with breezy conditions on Tues/Wed as a moisture
starved shortwave and attendant sfc front crests the upper level
ridge and sweeps through the Northern Plains. Looking into the end
of the week, the next chances for precip and a cool down will be
Fri/Sat as an upper trof moves into the western CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued At 942 PM MST Sat Nov 8 2025

Rain/snow showers have largely tapered off across the forecast
area. Some lingering light snow showers are possible through 12z
in the Black Hills. Lingering low clouds with MVFR/IFR ceilings
will persist across portions of western SD through 17-19z before
improvement to VFR.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Wong
AVIATION...SE