606
FXUS63 KUNR 130526
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1026 PM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry through Friday

- A cold front Friday night will bring minimal chances for
  overnight showers

- Cooler temperatures and breezy conditions for the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday)
Issued at 135 PM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

Water vapor imagery shows strong ridging across the central and much
of the western CONUS. There are several small shortwaves riding up
the ridge from CA to the top of the ridge axis over the northern
Rockies...even crossing the axis in MT/WY. This is bringing an
increase in mid/high clouds...and could complicate the aurora
viewing tonight. At the surface...high pressure ridge over the
Midwest extends along the Missouri River Valley into ND. SErly winds
have developed within the return flow. This will support warm air
advection tonight through Thursday. After a quiet night tonight,
temps will warm into the 60s to low 70s tomorrow, with mostly sunny
skies and relatively light winds over most places. Low level flow
will increase from the W/SW Thu night into Fri, bringing more warm
air advection. Highs will be in the upper 60s to upper
70s...especially across the downsloping eastern foothills through
south central SD. A low amplitude trough will cross the northern
Plains Friday night, bringing a cold front to the area resulting in
temps closer to seasonal averages (though still somewhat above). We
could see a few light showers Friday night but with very minimal
QPF. Breezy and mild conditions are expected for the weekend. After
Fri night, the next chance for precip is early next week, but there
is uncertainty as to how models will resolve the pattern that far
out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued At 1024 PM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. Depending
on how much winds are able to mix out after 02Z Friday at KGCC,
Low Level Wind Shear is possible in northeast Wyoming terminals at
the very end of this TAF period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...13
AVIATION...13