001
FXUS65 KVEF 130524
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
924 PM PST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* High confidence that a system will bring gusty winds and
  precipitation chances late Thursday through the weekend, but low
  confidence in details and impacts.

* Above-normal temperatures today and Thursday will cool to below-
  normal values next week as the active pattern continues.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Tuesday.

Models continue to trend slower and northward with low pressure
system expected late week and over the weekend. Timing/track
uncertainties aside, the general expectation is for multiple waves
of precipitation to impact various parts of the area. Currently,
models show the initial wave arriving late Thursday into Friday
morning, mainly bringing precipitation to our western zones. Rising
snow levels, now forecast to generally be 9,000 - 10,000 feet, have
greatly diminished the threat of winter impacts in the Eastern
Sierra with this first wave. Thus, opted to go with a Winter Weather
Advisory from 7PM Thursday to 10AM Friday. After a relative lull
Friday afternoon, the second wave pushes in early Saturday
through Sunday morning. Snow levels aren`t forecast to be quite as
high, but still should limit the potential for any winter impacts
to the Sierra and Spring Mountains. In the lower elevations,
widespread light to moderate rainfall can be expected. With PWAT
values forecast to be at or above monthly records, flooding is
starting to become a real possibility (10-20% chances),
particularly in our California zones. However, a lot can change in
~48 hours (as we`ve already seen) so stay tuned for forecast
updates over the coming days. With regard to the winds, widespread
gusts of 15-30 mph are likely (70%), with 70% chances of 40+ mph
gusts in the Owens Valley and Esmeralda County. A Wind Advisory
has been issued for these locations from 10AM Thursday to 4AM
Friday.

Temperature-wise, we start out with above-normal values, but as the
system begins to move in Friday and over the weekend, temperatures
drop to seasonable values and then eventually below-normal values
next week. Overnight lows look to approach the freezing point for
the first time this season in several locations, including Pahrump
and Kingman, next week as the active pattern continues. Details
remain unclear due to discrepancies in the timing/track of troughs,
but ensemble guidance suggests multiple storm systems could impact
the region in mid-November, promoting a relatively cool and wet
pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds
are expected to remain light, and generally follow diurnal
directional patterns with some variability through mid afternoon
Thursday. Late afternoon, winds will veer to the south-southwest,
with speeds likely to remain under 10KT through the evening when
winds then veer to the southwest and become light. VFR conditions
prevail, with SCT-BKN ceilings around 15-20kft through the
forecast period.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light winds around
5-10KT following typical diurnal directional patterns will
continue the next 24 hours. The exception will be the northern
Owens Valley, including BIH, where elevated up- valley winds will
become gusty once again by mid-morning, increasing to 25-35KT late
morning onward. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail, with bands of
mid-level and high clouds at or above 10kft for the duration.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Phillipson

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