926
FXUS65 KVEF 030512
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
912 PM PST Sun Nov 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Temperatures remain above normal through the forecast period,
  with light winds and dry conditions through Tuesday.

* Mid to late week, a trough will move through the region,
  bringing increased winds, slightly cooler temperatures, and a
  slight chance of precipitation to portions of the eastern
  Sierra.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Per latest water vapor imagery and 500 hPa RUC analysis, a
shortwave is currently coming ashore over southern California,
and will slowly dampen and translate northeastward over the next
24 hours. Given a lack of forcing and the overall weakness of the
wave, the only noticeable impact will be an uptick in high clouds
this evening through Monday. Otherwise, persistence is the rule as
temperatures through Tuesday will remain around 5 to 10 degrees
above normal for early November, with light afternoon breezes.

Conditions finally change Wednesday into Thursday, as a shortwave
breaks off of a deepening trough out of the Gulf of Alaska, and
moves across the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin. Precise timing
remains uncertain, however, ensembles and cluster analyses remain
in good agreement regarding the depth of the trough. Given its
expected trajectory to the north of the area, the primary impacts
will be increased winds on Wednesday afternoon, as well as a
slight chance of precipitation for the eastern Sierra in
northwestern Inyo County Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening. QPF with this system continues to decrease with each
subsequent forecast, now under 0.20", with only a light dusting to
an inch of snow currently forecast along the Sierra Crest. Of
greater concern will be increased winds, especially along the
Sierra Crest and Foothills across the northern Owens Valley, the
higher terrain of the western Mojave, and to the north of the
Spring Mountains in the vicinity of Desert Rock, where there
remains a 50-70% probability of wind gusts of 40 mph or greater.
These winds are expected to be localized, but could produce
hazardous travel conditions for high profile vehicles, and thus,
forecast trends will continue to be monitored. In the wake of this
system, temperatures are expected to cool down a few degrees on
Thursday, but even then, will remain above normal, with a subtle
warming trend heading into next weekend maintaining the streak of
above normal temperatures into the second week of November.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light
winds following typical diurnal directional patterns will continue
through the forecast period. VFR conditions will prevail, with FEW
to SCT high clouds with bases AOA 20kft AGL through tomorrow
morning, then FEW mid clouds with bases around 15kft AGL moving into
the valley during the afternoon and evening.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds across the region
will generally remain at 8 knots or less, following typical diurnal
directional patterns through Monday evening. VFR conditions will
prevail, with FEW to SCT high clouds with bases around 25kft AGL
through the morning, then mid-level clouds with bases around 15kft
AGL developing across portions of southern Nevada and southeast
California Monday afternoon.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Phillipson
AVIATION...Planz


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