498
FXUS65 KVEF 040757
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1257 AM PDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Showers will exit the southern Great Basin this morning, and winds
  will be weaker today than Friday.

* Temperatures will be slightly below normal through the weekend,
  with the first freeze of the season possible in Dyer, before
  slowly rising back to near normal during the upcoming week.

* Dry weather is expected Sunday through at least Wednesday. Later
  in the week, there is the potential for tropical moisture to move
  into the Desert Southwest, but a lot of uncertainty remains.
&&

.DISCUSSION...through Friday. Early morning satellite loop showed
mid level low pressure centered over Lincoln County and moving east,
with a band of showers and thunderstorms ahead of it in far eastern
Lincoln County and far western Utah, with more stratiform clouds on
the back side over Nye County. Surface obs showed locally gusty
winds persisting, although both the magnitude and coverage had
decreased since the evening. Temperatures were about 10 degrees
cooler on average around the CWA than 24 hours ago due to the low
and associated cold front.

As the low moves out to the east today, rain chances should be gone
by mid morning. Winds will be more complex, as coupling in the
heating of the day will allow stronger winds aloft to mix down as
gusts, but at the same time, both pressure gradients and upper
support will be weakening as the low moves out, which will limit the
magnitude of the gusts to much less than what occurred Friday.

In the wake of the low, today will be the coolest day for most of
the CWA, followed by a very slow rise in temps through Wednesday or
Thursday as heights slowly rebound. The forecast low Sunday morning
in Dyer is 32F, which would be the end-of-growing-season freeze for
that area (first freeze of the season), so issued a Freeze Warning
for that zone.

Confidence decreases for the second half of the week as a trough of
low pressure approaches the West Coast, while a potential tropical
system moves north near the Baja Peninsula. The interaction of these
two systems will determine conditions for the end of the week. If
the trough remains weaker and farther north, more ridging would
remain in place across the Southwest, likely steering the tropical
system away from the region. However, if the trough is stronger and
further south, moisture from the tropical system could be funneled
up into our area bringing the potential for rain next weekend. Stay
tuned to see how the interactions of these two systems play out.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...West to
southwest winds should persist through much of the night- while
gusts should be done, elevated winds around 10KT should continue.
Sometime early Saturday morning, winds should become northwest as a
front moves through, likely between 12Z and 15Z. Winds will not gust
though until after sunrise. Gusts to around 20KT are likely during
the late morning, followed by speeds decreasing Saturday afternoon
and evening. Light winds return by Saturday after sunset. VFR
conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with FEW-SCT clouds
around 25kft AGL into tonight, then becoming SKC tomorrow.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds will remain
elevated across the western Mojave Desert through the night, with
speeds at 10-20KT and gusts up to 30KT though. Elsewhere, winds
should stop gusting with speeds at 10-15KT. A cold front moving
south into the region will be accompanied by a northwesterly wind
shift, which is expected to move through southern Nevada terminals
Saturday morning and the Colorado River Valley sites by midday
Saturday. Breezy winds are expected Saturday morning with gusts up
to 20KT before winds slowly diminish in the afternoon and evening.
VFR conditions will prevail in most areas with FEW-SCT clouds around
25kft through tonight, then becoming mainly SKC tomorrow.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Morgan/Planz
AVIATION...Nickerson

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