936
FXUS65 KVEF 131043
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
243 AM PST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* An approaching weather system will drop late-week temperatures,
  increase Sierra snow and valley rain potential, and bring gusty
  south-southwest winds to the region.

* Impacts increase through the weekend as the aforementioned system
  moves inland, dropping temperatures further, dropping snow levels,
  and increasing widespread precipitation chances.

* Active weather pattern continues through the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday.

No major changes from yesterday afternoon`s forecast thinking. An
incoming trough will close off as it moves through the southeastern
Pacific Ocean and into the southwestern CONUS. Initially, this will
result in an increase of gusty south-southwest winds this afternoon.
Expect widespread speeds between 20 and 30 mph, with the exception
of the Owens Valley, Esmeralda, and central Nye counties, where
gusts will range from 35 to 45 mph (higher speeds in the higher
terrain). The first slug of moisture will approach the Sierra Nevada
crest this evening, with snow levels between 9500 and 10,000 feet.
Expect a strong snow accumulation gradient with elevations above
9500`, ranging from 4 to 12 inches. Due to persistent uncertainty
regarding the details of this system, a wide range of forecast
precipitation amounts exists outside of the eastern Sierra.
Regarding valley spillover on Friday, the NBM has a 70% chance of
0.10" at Bishop and a 35% chance of 0.10" at Death Valley, while the
HREF has 5% and 0%, respectively. Temperatures will drop 8 to 10
degrees between today and Friday.

This weekend, the system will push inland, ushering in a second
round of moisture to the region. Snow levels will drop to 7000 to
8000 feet across southeastern California and southwestern Nevada on
Saturday, resulting in snow potential on the White Mountains, Spring
Mountains, and additional accumulation in the eastern Sierra.
Chances of spillover precipitation increase substantially, with
between 70 and 90 percent chances of 0.10" of rain across our entire
forecast area Saturday through Sunday. The closed low will weaken
into an open wave as it pushes through the Desert Southwest, with
the greatest instability over southeastern California. As such, this
is where the greatest flood potential exists (10-20%). Temperatures
will drop another 8 to 10 degrees, landing the region at 5 to 8
degrees below-normal for this time of year.

An active pattern of incoming troughs will keep temperatures below-
normal and through the forecast period, with persistent chances of
mountain snow and light valley rain. Stay tuned to the forecast if
you have travel or outdoor recreation plans.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...
Light winds under 8KT favoring typical wind directions are
expected through the period. A brief period of southwest is
possible late this afternoon, but winds would not be stronger than
8KT if these winds did occur. Whatever sets up this afternoon,
winds will transition back to the southwest around sunset. VFR
conditions are expected today and tonight as SCT-BKN clouds
continue through the period, starting around 20kft then lowering
to 10kft-15kft tonight. An incoming weather system will bring
chances for rain and lower CIGs starting Friday with a low chance
(20%) for showers to move in as early as 15Z Friday morning,
however most likely precipitation would hold off until Friday
afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and
southeastern California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...After
light winds through this morning, breezy south to southwest winds
are expected to develop in Inyo County through the Southern Great
Basin this afternoon. Gusts 25-35KT are expected through the
evening. Winds will diminish this evening but should remain
elevated at 10-15KT and continued gusts to around 20KT through
much of the night. The rest of the area should see lighter winds
following typical afternoon wind directions. An approaching system
will bring increasing rain chances and decreasing CIGs to the
region the next few days, with rain and CIGs to 6kft-8kft
spreading over the Sierra into the Owens Valley as well as into
the Western Mojave Desert by early Friday morning. Elsewhere, VFR
conditions with CIGs to 10kft-15kft can be expected at times
through tonight.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Nickerson

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