238
FXUS65 KVEF 221238
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
438 AM PST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Light scattered showers will persist across the region this
  morning before shower activity becomes isolated in the afternoon
  and evening, with increased chances of occasional lightning
  strikes.

* As a ridge of high pressure builds over the southeastern Pacific,
  expect warming temperatures, dry conditions, and breezy afternoons
  through Thanksgiving Day.

&&


.DISCUSSION...Today through Friday.

Wrap-around precipitation lingers longer into the weekend with each
model run. The closed low that has brought rain to the region over
the last few days will continue to push eastward through the day
today, resulting in scattered light rain through the morning and
isolated light rain through the afternoon and evening. With cloud
cover ongoing through the afternoon, instability will be quite
limited; however, high resolution guidance indicates that the
isolated shower activity in the afternoon and evening could produce
an occasional lightning strike with moderate rain rates at times.
Best chances of thunderstorms exist across the lower Colorado River
Valley and southern Mohave County, with 10% chances or less
extending into Clark and San Bernardino counties. On Sunday, the
majority of the forecast area should experience mostly sunny skies,
though persistent isolated sprinkles cannot be ruled out in Mohave
County as the center of the low pushes through central Arizona.

Temperatures areawide moderate toward seasonal normals through the
remainder of the weekend and start of next week as a ridge of high
pressure builds over the southeastern Pacific Ocean. Temperatures
peak on Thanksgiving Day, with afternoon high temperatures
between 3 and 5 degrees above-normal. This ridging will result in
a dry northwest flow aloft that will bring shortwave disturbances
through the Mojave Desert, resulting in increased northerly
breezes Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons for the region. Coupled
with topographic enhancement, the lower Colorado River Valley will
experience northerly wind gusts between 25 and 35 mph, which will
result in wave heights between 1.5 and 3 feet on Lake Mohave,
with particular concern near Katherine Landing. Check the forecast
before heading out on area lakes. Heading into next weekend,
ensemble means show a pattern change, with the potential for
unsettled weather to return to the region.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Rain
shower activity will continue to wane through the night with VCSH
expected through tonight. Showers this morning will become more
isolated in nature through the late morning afternoon hours.
Increasing confidence on shower activity increasing once again
between 00-08Z Sun, where there is a 5-10% chance of a thunderstorm
in the vicinity of the airport with low confidence on timing and
occurrence. BKN cigs likely between 5000-8000 ft MSL in any areas of
-SHRA, otherwise BKN cigs AOA 10K ft MSL prevailing through the TAF
period. Winds increasing by late morning through the afternoon out
of the north with gusts nearing 20 kts at times. Winds becoming
lighter and variable after 08Z Sun.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...With the exception of
BIH, wrap around rain showers will remain possible through the TAF
period, including a 5-10% chance for this afternoon/evening. Low-end
VFR conditions are expected to prevail with high-end MVFR conditions
possible in rain showers. Winds will be diurnal, strengthening to
become moderate by tomorrow afternoon. Chances for rain becomes
minimal by Sunday morning with cigs starting to clear out.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Roser

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