780
FXUS65 KVEF 182311
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
310 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Widespread rain continues across the region for the rest of today
  and tonight, becoming less intense on Wednesday and Thursday.

* Heavy snowfall will impact areas of southern Nevada and
  southeastern California above 6000 feet in elevation.

* Another system will dig into the region late this week, bringing
  cooler temperatures and precipitation potential.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Monday.

An upper level low is currently centered over the Southern
California coast. Anomalously high moisture and strong difluence
aloft have led to widespread precipitation over the region. Rainfall
totals as of 1 PM PST include over 1 inch in Pahrump, over half an
inch in Death Valley, and over .3 inch in the Las Vegas area. There
are reports of flooding and debris across roadways in and around
Death Valley. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected to continue
into the evening before tapering off overnight. Additional
instability driven showers and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow
as the low passes overhead, particularly in northwestern Arizona.
However, this rainfall should be less intense compared to today. A
Flood Watch remains in effect for parts of southeastern California,
southern Nevada, and northwestern Arizona through late tonight.

Another challenge with this system is snow.fall. Snowfall totals are
rather unimpressive so far as warm temperatures have limited much of
it to rain.  Automated sensors in the Sierra above 9000 feet in
elevation have reported around 6 inches of snowfall with this event.
There was also a report in Aspendell of about 4 inches of snow. In
the Spring Mountains, between 3 and 6 inches fell near Lee and
Rainbow Canyons. Snowfall rates should increase this evening as
cooler air moves into the region, with totals between 5 and 10
inches possible at Lee and Kyle Canyons by tomorrow morning. A
Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for areas of Inyo, Clark,
Esmeralda, and Nye counties above 6000 feet.

Isolated precipitation remains possible on Thursday as moisture
lingers in the area, but without any considerable forcing totals
should be limited. Another low pressure system should move through
the southwestern United States towards the end of the week. This
system will dig further south and any precipitation should be
limited to San Beranrdino and southern Clark County. Cool air
associated with the low will help maintain below average
temperatures. Afterwards, guidance indicates a ridge early next
week, which should bring more moderate temperatures and quiet
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast
Package...The bulk of the precipitation has shifted north of the Las
Vegas Valley; however, additional isolated to scattered showers will
be possible late this afternoon and evening, with the highest
probability between 02-06Z. CIGS are expected to remain above 5000
feet through 02z, but with the additional showers this evening, the
possibility exists for CIGS to drop below 5000 feet. Winds will
generally be less than 10 knots, but a few occasional gusts to
around 14 knots will be possible near any additional showers. Expect
to see isolated showers Wednesday along with the possibility of CIGS
dropping to around 5k feet or less.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Rain showers and
thunderstorms, low ceilings, and terrain obscuration will be the
main concerns into through late evening at all TAF sites expect KDAG
where mainly partly cloudy skies are expected. CIGS down to around
5k feet are possible along with isolated visibility reductions.
Additional isolated showers are possible Wednesday across the
region.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meltzer
AVIATION...Gorelow


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