477
FXUS65 KVEF 142256
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
256 PM PST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A low pressure system will continue to impact the region with
  cooler than normal temperatures and unsettled weather continuing
  through the weekend.

* A Flood Watch is in effect for Inyo and San Bernardino Counties
  from 4:00 am PST Saturday to 4:00 am PST Sunday.

* This active weather pattern will continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through next Thursday.

The latest infrared and water vapor satellite imagery shows a closed
low driving another plume of moisture into Southern California.
As this moisture continues to push into our forecast area, we will
see it fuel another round of showers across San Bernardino and
Inyo counties this afternoon and evening. Another, more
substantial round of showers will push into southeastern
California overnight, eventually making it`s way into southern
Nevada and northwestern Arizona as the aforementioned low moves
inland and into our forecast area. With widespread moderate-to-
heavy rain expected across the region and the potential for
thunderstorms embedded within these showers, expect water to be
flowing in normally dry washes, water ponding on roadways/low
lying areas, and slippery roads as dust, oil, and dirt is lifted
from the pavement. With snow levels expected to be above 10,000
feet for most of the event, impactful snow accumulation is not
expected outside of the Sierra Crest and the peaks of the Spring
Mountains. Snow levels will drop to around 8,000 feet on the back
side of this system Saturday night into Sunday morning. However,
precipitation will be tapering off during this time, making it
difficult for more than 2 to 4 inches of snow to accumulate in
Kyle and Lee Canyons at the tail end of this event.

As the aforementioned closed low rotates inland, it will
cyclonically wrap the moisture plume around it, helping to drive
moderate-to-heavy rain across San Bernardino County and into Inyo
County starting during the overnight hours. Showers and embedded
thunderstorms will continue throughout the day on Saturday as the
low continues to move through our forecast area. Precipitation
totals across Inyo and San Bernardino counties are expected to
range from half an inch up to 2.00 inches in areas of higher
terrain. Due to the elevated risk of flooding across San
Bernardino and Inyo Counties, a Flood Watch will go into effect at
4:00 am PST Saturday morning and will run through 4:00 am Sunday
morning. Rock/landslides will be possible in areas of complex
terrain, with flowing water expected in washes and creeks that may
normally be dry. Areas where washes cross roads or where roads
are in washes will be at risk of being impacted by flowing water.
If you must travel, make sure to check the forecast and road
conditions as road closures will be possible. Additionally, never
attempt to drive through flood waters as you do not know if the
road underneath has been damaged or washed out.

Our active pattern will continue into next week with another trough
following on the heels of this weekend`s system. This system will be
colder, knocking temperatures down to around 10 degrees below normal
for mid-November. Another round of mountain snow and lower elevation
rain will accompany this system on Monday and Tuesday. Another
system looks to follow this early week system, impacting the area
during the second half of the week. Stay tuned to the forecast if
you have travel or outdoor recreation plans.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...The main
concerns this period will be ceilings and rain. Rain showers will
become more widespread in southern Nevada after sunrise tomorrow
morning, becoming more widespread and intense throughout the day.
The heaviest rainfall appears to be in the afternoon, when ceilings
of 2000 feet or less and visibility under 2 miles become possible
under the strongest showers. Rainfall should become less intense
through Saturday evening and end late overnight.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...The main concerns this
period will be ceilings and rain. Precipitation should pick up from
west to east tomorrow morning. Intensity will peak in the afternoon,
when moderate rainfall will lead to visibility of less than 2 miles
and ceilings of less than 2000 feet in the Las Vegas Valley and
Owens Valley. Unusual easterly to southeasterly winds with gusts of
around 20 knots develop in the Mojave Desert and Colorado River
Valley in the afternoon. Light to moderate rainfall will continue
into the evening, tapering off on Saturday night.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stessman
AVIATION...Meltzer

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