079
FXUS65 KVEF 180514
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
914 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Widespread rain and mountain snow returns to the region today
  and tonight, with periods of locally heavy rainfall persisting
  into Tuesday night.

* Wet soils and bursts of moderate to heavy rain will lead rapid
  runoff and area of flood potential in low lying and sensitive
  basins.

* Heavy snow remains expected in the higher terrain of the Spring
  Mountains, Sierra, White Mountains, and peaks in the southern
  Great Basin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Sunday.

The active weather pattern continues as another rather deep
closed low digs south into central California this afternoon. This
548dm low is spreading heavy snow into the Sierra at this hour
with some light spillover rainfall reported into the Owens Valley
and around Bishop as well. As the low drops further south tonight,
increasing diffluent southerly flow will overspread the Mojave
Desert and southern Great Basin, with showers and isolated
thunderstorms breaking out prior to daybreak and spreading north
in several rounds through the day. As the low slowly pivots east
into the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts Tuesday night into Wednesday,
precipitation will gradually shift eastward but some lingering
light showers may persist into Wednesday under the cool wrap-
around flow on the back side of the departing low.

Following the widespread and locally heavy rainfall observed
across much of the region over the weekend - soils are saturated
and will have an added sensitivity to additional rainfall. Latest
NBM/HREF probabilities favor Northwest Arizona and the Colorado
River Valley with the highest 24 hour rainfall totals exceeding 1
inch, with probabilities ranging from 25-50 percent. Some pockets
of heavier rainfall exceeding 2 inches are even suggested across
parts of Mojave County. Meanwhile, probabilities for over 0.50
inches remain elevated across much of southern Nevada and much of
Inyo County, with totals that could end up being comparable to the
weekends wet storm system. Given some of the flood impacts
witnessed over the weekend and the expectation for additional
rainfall, drew a broad flood watch for much of the area starting
late this evening and continuing through Wednesday morning.

Finally, heavy snow continues to be a concern in the higher
elevations. Overall, no major changes to the expectations in the
Sierra/White Mountains, but trends towards slightly higher snow
levels do have some implications for the Spring Mountains and
southern Great Basin areas. Overall, snow level within the deep
southerly flow Tuesday will climb to 7000-8000 feet across
southern Nevada much of the day, resulting in a rain or rain-snow
mix within that elevation range that will limit snow totals
through the day. Cooler air will filter in after sunset Tuesday
allowing snow levels to fall closer to 6000 feet, and when the
more impactful snow accumulations are expected in the higher
terrain. Specially, Kyle Canyon in the Spring Mountains may remain
more rain than snow for most of the day before the snow level
falls in the evening.

After this system moves out Wednesday evening, another storm
system will drop south behind it. Latest trends continue to
suggest this system will trend further west and south, largely
bypassing our forecast area - however, there remains the chance of
some light showers and cooler temps as it moves off the coast.
Meanwhile, a much anticipated break is expected by the weekend as
ridging builds in temperatures slowly moderate.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...
Light easterly winds continue with precipitation moving in before
daybreak Tuesday. As rain moves in, CIGs gradually drop, eventually
getting down to ~3kft (70% chance). Chances for CIGs less than 1kft
are around 25% from 14z to 00z. Expecting mostly light to moderate
rain, but probabilities for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon have
ticked up to ~25%. Opted to leave TS out of the TAF for now, but its
addition may be warranted in subsequent TAF packages. Looks like the
bulk of precipitation will exit the valley between 00z and 03z, but
vicinity showers are likely to linger overnight along with CIGs at 4-
5kft.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Widespread precipitation
will develop overnight and throughout the day Tuesday. In and around
the precipitation, expect reduced visibilities, low CIGs, and
significant terrain obscuration. Most of the area has 40-80% chances
of MVFR CIGs with 10-25% odds of IFR CIGs. Winds remain fairly light
across the region. Precipitation will largely be in the form of
light to moderate rain, but a few thunderstorms will be possible in
the Mojave Desert. Best chances (40%) reside in eastern San
Bernardino County and southern Mohave County Tuesday morning and
afternoon.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Woods


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