531
FXUS65 KVEF 070814
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
114 AM PDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry conditions and a warming trend will continue today and
  Wednesday as high pressure builds across the region.

* Increasing confidence for showers and thunderstorms Thursday
  through Saturday as moisture from Hurricane Priscilla moves into
  the Desert Southwest.
&&

.DISCUSSION...through Monday. Early morning satellite loop showed
clear skies areawide. Surface obs showed locally breezy northerly
winds and temperatures generally a few degrees warmer than 24 hours
ago.

Dry weather will continue through Wednesday as high pressure
builds in across the region. A strengthening surface high over the
Great Basin will lead to breezy conditions again today down the
Colorado River Valley and in favorably oriented terrain, but wind
speeds will remain below advisory levels. Meanwhile, temperatures
will rise to near normal today and above normal Wednesday.

More consequential weather is expected Thursday through Saturday as
the remains of Hurricane Priscilla interact with an approaching
Pacific trough. Model guidance has trended more towards keeping the
remnants of Priscilla somewhat cohesive while tracking northwest
along the Baja Coast before turning northeast as the trough
approaches. This results in increasing precipitation chances as
early as Thursday afternoon, mainly along and southeast of I-15. The
best and most widespread precipitation chances remain favored for
Friday, followed by drier air beginning to move in from the west as
early as Saturday, and sweeping away most if not all rain chances by
Sunday. Both the onset and ending of rain chances have accelerated
further since 24 hours ago. Overall, the highest rain chances and
heaviest amounts remain favored across areas along and southeast of
I-15, especially northwest Arizona. WPC forecast rain totals have
roughly doubled in this area since 24 hours ago, with amounts of one
to two inches forecast in southern and eastern Mohave County. With
precipitable water anomalies of 300% of normal or greater by Friday,
very high precipitation efficiency will be a concern and may result
in flooding impacts. Cooler temperatures will accompany the
increased clouds and rain chances, and one caveat to heavy rain
chances could be a lack of instability to fuel thunderstorm
development. If the sky is completely overcast, holding temperatures
way down, it could result in stratiform rain with much lower
rainfall rates. Even after the drier air sweeps in, temperatures may
be still cooler Sunday and Monday due to falling heights associated
with the trough.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light
winds are expected overnight, favoring either the north or northeast
before becoming light and variable after midnight. By Tuesday
morning light winds favoring typical daily trends will resume with
VFR conditions expected.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...VFR Conditions expected
through the TAF period. Surface winds will favor north or northeast
directions through this evening, with north winds persisting into
the night near KIFP and KEED. Lighter winds will resume Tuesday but
elevated northerly winds of 10-15 knots will persist along the
Colorado River Valley through the afternoon before diminishing in.
the afternoon.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Morgan/Outler
AVIATION...Nickerson

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