461
FXUS65 KVEF 112248
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
240 PM PST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry weather and warmer than normal temperatures are expected
  across the region through the middle of the week.

* High confidence that a trough of low pressure will bring gusty
  winds and increased precipitation chances to the region the second
  half of the week, but low confidence remains in details and
  expected impacts.

* Much colder temperatures arrive Friday with below normal
  temperatures likely into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Monday.
Satellite imagery showing large swath of high clouds spreading over
the southern Great Basin and Mojave Desert ahead of a trough that
will bring significant changes to our weather during the last half
of the week. High pressure that is currently parked over the region
will shift east ahead of this trough Wednesday with an increasing
southwest flow aloft. We won`t see much of an impact Wednesday other
than some windy conditions over the Sierra along with breezy
conditions across portions of Esmeralda and central Nye counties.
Temperatures will continue to remain several degrees above normal.

There is still some uncertainty with the incoming trough, especially
with the track and timing. The latest runs have definitely showed a
slower pace, with precipitation not reaching the Sierra until
sometime late Thursday morning and the heaviest precipitation
occurring overnight Thursday into Friday morning. Along with the
slower start, it looks like the low will hang off shore a bit longer
which in turn has dropped overall precipitation totals across Inyo
County Thursday and Friday. We are still looking at the potential
for heavy snow and the Winter Storm Watch still looks good, but will
hold off on upgrading to a Warning until things become a bit
clearer. Yesterday, it looked like snow totals would be between 8-14
inches between 7000-9000 feet and between 1-2 feet above 9000 feet.
With the latest models keeping the low further offshore and in turn
keeping temperatures a bit warmer, the latest probabilities for snow
in the Sierra have dropped. The latest 25th and 75th percentiles
show 6 to 14 inches respectively above 9000 feet with generally less
than 6 inches below 9000 feet. The forecast yesterday for the Owens
Valley that rainfall amounts would be between 0.50`-1.00", now it
looks like a quarter to half an inch is more likely.

Due to the overall slower track, precipitation getting into southern
Nevada and northwest Arizona looks to be more late Friday night
through Sunday. This overall track and position of the low would be
more favorable to precipitation across the southern half of the
forecast area and overall totals have increased for places like Las
Vegas and the Spring Mountains. The 25th and 75th percentiles for
rain totals in Las Vegas is currently between 0.01" and 0.56" and a
mean of 0.36". This large spread just shows how much uncertainty
remains. It does look like a decent set-up for snow in the Spring
Mountains, but temperatures will be fairly warm with snow levels
during most of the duration of the precipitation above 8000 feet.
Eventually colder air will work into the area and snow levels will
drop below 7000 feet, we will be mainly left with a few showers and
significant accumulations are not expected in the higher impact
areas.

As the trough moving into the region, a sharp cool down is expected.
High temperatures drop 10 to 15 degrees between Wednesday to Friday-
going from 8-10 degrees above normal to 5-10 degrees below normal.
Below normal temperatures will then likely continue through the
weekend into the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast
Package...Light winds under 8KT favoring typical wind directions are
expected through the period with winds transitioning back to the
southwest around sunset. VFR conditions are expected as with BKN
clouds around 25kft and SCT-BKN clouds lowering to 15kft-20kft
overnight.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Expect winds to follow
typical patterns across the region through Wednesday, with the
exception of KBIH where south winds to around 10-12 knots are
expected after 19z. BKN-OVC clouds around 25kft will lower to around
15kft-20kft this evening and overnight.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Gorelow

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