504
FXUS65 KVEF 182346
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
446 PM PDT Fri Jul 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Monsoonal moisture brings scattered storms to the area today,
  becoming more isolated on Saturday. Some of this activity may
  bring flash flooding and gusty outflow winds.

* Temperatures rebound to near seasonal values over the weekend and
  next week as dry and breezy conditions return to most of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Thursday.

Latest satellite imagery shows a large MCV spinning along the border
of Inyo and San Bernardino counties. This feature and the ever-
present orographic circulations will help initiate scattered
convection around the area today. Storms are already going on the
high terrain of Clark and San Bernardino counties. As the afternoon
rolls around, expecting coverage to increase along and south of the
Interstate 15 corridor, as well as Lincoln County. Flash flooding
will be the main hazard, though gusty outflow winds will also be
possible. Unlike yesterday, today`s activity should largely wane by
sunset. Tomorrow, drier air begins to work its way in, resulting in
more isolated activity, focused mainly across the southern Great
Basin. By Sunday, precipitation chances drop below 20% across the
entire CWA except eastern Mohave County where they linger between 20
and 40% through Tuesday.

With moisture and cloud cover decreasing over the weekend,
temperatures are forecast to rebound to near seasonal values.
HeatRisk remains in the minor to moderate categories, suggesting
impacts will largely be confined to those sensitive to heat. As a
trough digs off the West Coast, we`ll experience breezy southwest
winds. Breezes may be strong enough to produce elevated fire weather
conditions in places that don`t receive much precipitation today.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...The
thunderstorm threat for the terminal has ended, with
variable/northwesterly winds expected for the first hour or so of
the forecast period due to lingering outflow boundaries.
Thereafter, winds generally settle out of the south to southwest,
with speeds expected to remain under 10KT. Intermittent clouds
around 10kft will persist through Saturday evening, though are not
expected to impact aircraft operations. Temperatures will rise
above 100F around 20Z, with a low (10%) probability for another
brief round of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the
afternoon. However, low confidence precludes inclusion in the TAF.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Thunderstorms linger
across the southern Great Basin, northwestern Arizona, and
Morongo Basin this evening, but are expected to continue
diminishing. KDAG may see impacts from storms in the first couple
hours of the period, mainly in the fashion of erratic/gusty winds.
Otherwise, by mid to late evening, winds will become light across
the area, settling into typical diurnal patterns through
Saturday. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected
during the afternoon, with the greatest potential across the
southern Great Basin.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Phillipson

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