831
FXUS65 KVEF 151813
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1014 AM PST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A weather system will push through the region today, bringing
  widespread rainfall, mountain snow, and a drop in temperatures.

* The next in a parade of weather systems will impact the Desert
  Southwest on Monday and Tuesday, returning widespread
  precipitation chances and cooling the region further.

* Active weather continues through the forecast period, with the
  following system expected late-week.

&&


.DISCUSSION...Today through Friday.

The closed low responsible for this active weather will push through
the Desert Southwest today. The associated moisture plume will wrap
counter-clockwise around the center of the low, allowing it to avoid
rainshadowing from the Sierra Nevada as it pushes north-
northwestward up the Colorado River Valley into the Mojave Desert.
This moisture trajectory is certain to bring measurable rainfall to
the region, though forecast precipitation totals with this event
remain tricky. Expect a shift from stratiform-type light rain this
morning to showery / convective-type moderate-to-heavy rain through
the afternoon and evening. With the convective-type rainfall, expect
occasional instances of lightning, which would be accompanied by
locally heavier rain rates. The best instability coupled with the
best moisture exists across Inyo and San Bernardino counties, where
a Flood Watch remains in effect from 4 AM PST this morning through 4
AM PST Sunday morning. Snow levels drop to between 8500 and 9500
feet during the peak of the event, before dropping further to
between 7000 and 8000 feet as the system exits. As a result, the
bulk of snowfall accumulation will occur in the peaks of the Sierra
White, and Spring Mountains this afternoon, though accumulations
between 2 and 4 inches cannot be ruled out around 7000 feet late-
tonight as the event wraps up. Expect residual light precipitation
on Sunday. Afternoon high temperatures will drop another 6 to 10
degrees today, which will result in below-normal temperatures for
the region.

On Monday, the next weather system will approach the region, which
will bring an additional round of precipitation alongside snow
levels between 5500 and 6500 feet. Significant snowfall
accumulations (6 to 12 inches) will remain largely confined to
elevations above 9000 feet, with 2 to 4 expected down to 6000 feet
between Monday and Tuesday. Otherwise, widespread light-to-moderate
rainfall expected, with afternoon high temperatures dropping to 8 to
10 degrees below-normal.

An active pattern of incoming troughs will keep temperatures below-
normal through the forecast period, with persistent chances of
mountain snow and valley rain. The exception will be Wednesday, when
the region will have a brief reprieve of precipitation chances. Stay
tuned to the forecast if you have travel or outdoor recreation
plans.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Low
ceilings and periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will be the main
forecast concerns into tonight. Light, intermittent showers are
likely late this morning before steadier rain develops around 19Z.
With this rain, CIGs may fall into MVFR range, potentially as low as
2kft AGL, and visibilities could decrease to around 2SM at times
through mid-evening. Some improvement is expected by late evening as
shower activity becomes more scattered and CIGs lift to around 6kft
AGL. Additional showers are possible after 14Z, though these should
be more isolated and less impactful. Southwest winds are also
expected to increase Sunday morning, with gusts to around 20 knots
possible by midday.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Low ceilings and reduced
visibilities due to moderate to heavy rainfall will be the main
forecast concerns into tonight. Rain will continue to overspread the
area from west to east this afternoon, with the heaviest
precipitation likely between 18Z and 03Z. Terrain obscurations are
expected, along with the potential for CIGs to fall as low as 1kft
AGL along the eastern Sierra slopes and around 2kft AGL elsewhere in
areas of heavier rain. Winds will generally remain light and
somewhat variable into this evening before stronger south to
southwest winds develop as the rain diminishes from southwest to
northeast overnight.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Planz

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