192
FXUS65 KVEF 092114
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
114 PM PST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Gusty north winds in the Colorado River Valley will settle down
  this evening. Otherwise, dry weather and warmer than normal
  temperatures are expected across the region through the middle of
  the upcoming week.

* A trough of low pressure will bring gusty winds, cooler
  temperatures, and increased precipitation chances to the region
  late in the week.
&&

.DISCUSSION...through Sunday. Midday satellite loop showed thin
cirrus spilling down the front side of the ridge into our region.
Surface obs showed locally gusty north winds and temperatures very
similar to 24 hours ago.

The northerly winds will be the first concern. The Lake Wind
Advisory was looking good, as winds were gusting 30 to 40 mph around
Lake Mohave and 20 to 30 mph through the rest of the Colorado River
Valley. Surface obs show that the north to south pressure gradient
peaked shortly after sunrise and has been decreasing since, so
barring something unexpected, the Advisory should be good to expire
on schedule at 00Z. Mid level high pressure will remain overhead and
slowly weaken through Tuesday, keeping dry weather and unseasonably
warm temperatures in place.

Things will begin to change on Wednesday. A jet streak which was
coming around cold low pressure over the Bering Sea today will carve
out a deepening trough in the Gulf of Alaska and northeast Pacific
by Tuesday, which will approach the West Coast and nudge the
weakened ridge east on Wednesday. As should be expected, there are
model differences in the depth and speed of the incoming trough, so
forecast details are likely to change as we get closer. At this
time, it appears that southerly winds will begin to increase on
Wednesday, with only a subtle day to day drop in high temperatures
as the increased mixing offsets falling heights. Thursday and Friday
look like the days of greatest change, as precipitation chances
overspread the region from west to east, winds peak, and high
temperatures crash 15 to 20 degrees from Wednesday to Friday. Snow
levels should start out around 9000-10000 feet Thursday, falling to
5500-7000 feet Thursday night and Friday as the cold trough moves
in. At this time, trajectories favor a lot of moisture interception
by the Sierra, with some spillover into the Owens Valley and lesser
precip amounts in the Mojave Desert as the moisture plume comes
around the southern end of the Sierra. Forecast snow amounts have
not changed much since 12 hours ago, with impactful amounts likely
limited to the Sierra. To reiterate, it is still early and things
can change.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds
will become northeasterly around 18-19Z, with sustained speeds of
around eight knots, and an occasional gust to 15 knots not out of
the question. Winds will then shift to light southwesterly after
sunset. VFR conditions will persist.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds will be generally
light and diurnal across the region with the exception of the
Colorado River Valley, where KEED and KIFP will see sustained north
winds of 15 to 25 knots with gusts of 25 to 35 knots through sunset.
Weaker winds are expected overnight into Monday morning. VFR
conditions will persist.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Morgan
AVIATION...Morgan

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