939
FXUS65 KVEF 161954
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1154 AM PST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Another weather system will impact the Desert Southwest on
  Monday and Tuesday, with widespread rain and mountain snow
  returning.

* Winter weather expected above 6000 feet, resulting in snow
  covered roadways and dangerous driving conditions in the Sierra,
  Spring Mountains, and higher elevations of the southern Great
  Basin.

* Active weather continues through the forecast period, with the
  following system expected late-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through next weekend.

The weather remains dynamic across the region today as a 558dm
low circulates across central Nevada. A -22C cold pool aloft
exists across southern Nevada and northwest Arizona as well,
which when combined with the sunshine this morning, has resulted
in convective showers and isolated thunderstorms focused over
Lincoln, Mohave and eastern Clark counties. Meanwhile, some light
rain and mountain snow continues to wrap around the back side of
the low, resulting in overcast skies and showers across Inyo
County and southwestern Nevada. This low will gradually shift east
this evening with precipitation chances dwindling overnight.
However, the flow pattern remains active with another storm on our
doorstep for Monday.

The next storm in line remains on track to influence mainly our
western zones Monday, before spreading another shot of widespread
rain and mountain into our eastern zones Tuesday. This system has
trended slightly slower as it digs into southern California
Monday, keeping precipitation chances mainly west of Las Vegas
through the day. As it pushes east Tuesday, diffluent flow aloft
and advection of 200-250% of normal precipitable water content
will favor another fairly widespread rainfall event - though rain
totals are expected to be less than the Saturday system. Improving
conditions are expected late Tuesday into Wednesday as the storm
system shifts east.

The biggest difference with this storm system compared to Saturday
will be the cooler air associated with it - and snow levels that
are more likely to impact mountain travel and recreation above
6000 feet. Notably, probabilities of 8 inches of more of storm
total snow have increased to 50% for Kyle, and 75% for Lee
Canyons in the Spring Mountains. We will continue to monitor
these trends for any upgrades of the winter headlines currently
out.

After a break midweek, another storm system may take aim at the
region Thursday into Friday. There remains a large degree of
uncertainty with this system, with some guidance handling the
storm system as an open wave which traverses the region, while
others close it off and dig it offshore, with virtually no impact
for our area. The more progressive solutions are generally
preferred and have greater ensemble membership, suggesting at
least a chance for light showers and high elevation snow, but a
large range in outcomes remains possible. As such, elevated
precipitation chances remain advertised in the extended range
along with continued cool temperatures. Ridging will build back
in over the weekend with dry conditions resuming and gradually
moderating temps.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Breezy
south-southwest winds are expected today with gusts in the 15-20
knot range.  SCT-BKN clouds are expected through the day with CIGS
between 6-8kft.  Showers may occur in the vicinity of the terminal
through the afternoon but are more favored east of the city. Winds
should settle down after sunset, and VFR conditions are expected
tonight. Clouds are expected to increase again Monday, with CIGS
again between 6-8kft AGL.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...The worst weather today
is expected in an arc from the Owens Valley across the southern
Great Basin and southward through Mohave County, where low ceilings
and reduced visibilities in rain and high mountain snow will
continue to be a concern. Elsewhere, expect prevailing VFR
conditions with areas of MVFR/IFR in scattered showers. South to
southwest winds gusting 15 to 30 knots can be expected over much of
the region today, settling down after sunset. VFR conditions are
likely areawide overnight before the next round clouds moves in
Monday, with shower chanced mainly across the Sierra and far western
Mojave Desert region.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Outler/Morgan

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