150
FXUS65 KVEF 202150
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
150 PM PST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Rain showers and high elevation snow will move in from west to
  east this evening through tomorrow morning, bringing light to
  moderate precipitation accumulations across the region.

* Snow accumulation trended down with the latest forecast package,
  with winter weather advisories still issued for the Sierra
  Nevada/White Mountains and the Spring Mountains/Sheep Range.

* Cooler than normal temperatures will persist through tomorrow,
  with a warming and drying trend beginning as high pressure builds
  in this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Thursday.

The brief break in precipitation for much of the region will end
tonight as a broad low pressure system moves into south central
California and western Arizona this evening. Widespread showers will
bring up to an inch of precipitation in southern portions of San
Bernardino and Inyo counties by Friday afternoon, with the heaviest
precipitation falling from 2am PST to 7am PST. Lighter
precipitation amounts are anticipated for southern Nevada and
northwestern Arizona, with totals ranging from a few hundredths in
valleys up to a half of an inch over northwestern Arizona.
Heavier showers could bring localized areas of higher
accumulations overnight. The Las Vegas Valley will see up to a
quarter of an inch in any heavier showers that form, with a sharp
accumulation gradient from the spotty nature of the precipitation.
Limited instability paired with the timing of the coolest air
passing overnight keeps lightning potential over the region low,
less than 10% for the region. Scattered showers will continue into
the afternoon on Friday, gradually tapering off as the low center
moves into northern Mexico.

Snow accumulations anywhere from 5-10 inches will favor the Sierra
Nevada and White Mountains with trends indicating lower amounts (3-8
inches) for high terrain in southern Nevada. Therefore, winter
weather advisories will be continued for elevations above 6000
feet. The highest accumulations look to be above 8500 feet with
summits seeing up to 12 inches of snow by tomorrow morning.

Temperatures will continue to be slightly below normal today and
tomorrow, with a warming and drying trend returning as high pressure
builds northwest flow into the region over the weekend. Current
forecast models favor normal temperatures with dry conditions over
the region but this regime typically favors embedded shortwaves.
This could bring a slight chance of precipitation next week, but
current forecast confidence in that outcome is low.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast
Package...Increasing clouds are expected through this evening,
with SCT-BKN ceilings around 10-12kft early in the period expected
to gradually decrease to 4-5kft by early this evening. Another
round of rain is expected, with rain/snow confined to the higher
terrain surrounding the Valley this evening into tonight, with
rain showers moving into the Valley closer to 09-10Z. Expect
ceilings to drop to around 3-4kft, possibly lower in heavier
showers, with visibility around 6SM at times. Showers begin to
dissipate mid morning, with ceilings slow to improve/scatter out
through the afternoon. Winds will largely remain light and
somewhat variable, settling out of the east-southeast this
afternoon, and the northeast on Friday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Deteriorating flight
conditions are expected through this evening, with increasing
clouds and ceilings falling from 10-12kft early in the period to
3-5kft this evening and tonight. One notable exception is BIH in
the Owens Valley, where ceilings between 1-2kft are expected for
the entire forecast period, with showers moving in this afternoon
and continuing through mid morning before slowly tapering off.
Elsewhere, showers are expected to overspread the area from
northwest to southeast this evening and tonight, with visibility
reductions to 4-6SM in heavier rain showers expected, as well as
potential for ceilings under 3kft at times. Improvement will be
slow and gradual, largely beyond the end of the forecast period.
Winds will be somewhat variable, with speeds around 5-10KT,
increasing to 10-12KT through portions of the Colorado River
Valley and western Mojave Desert late tonight through Friday
morning.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Adams
AVIATION...Phillipson

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