642
FXUS64 KBMX 030210
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
810 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 808 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025

-  Below average temperatures are expected to continue through
   Monday, but will be replaced with a warm and dry pattern
   Tuesday through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 808 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025

Previously did a quick update to remove the leftover POPs in the
early first period of the forecast. Other than that, everything
seems to be right on track for the rest of the night, and I do not
foresee the need for any additional updates this evening.

/61/

Previous discussion:
(This afternoon through next Friday)
Issued at 1140 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025

At the time of this discussion, the upper-level low is somewhere
close to the AL/TN border, with it continuing to drop SE over the
course of the day. Cloud and rain chances will linger, before the
rain exits the region sometime after 6PM. The lingering clouds will
play the biggest role in the forecast, for at least the short-term,
helping to keep certain areas more insulated. Temperatures here will
be warmer, and the frost potential will be much lower. The current
Frost Advisory mirrors where I think the clouds will linger the
longest, but it`s entirely possible it`s both over done, or under
done. As the winds decouple later tonight, temperatures will quickly
begin to drop due to radiational cooling, with the aforementioned
frost quickly forming in these areas. There is also some fog
potential in our western zones tonight, with some high-res guidance
painting high probabilities given the conditions. I certainly think
some patchy fog will be possible, but I didn`t have the confidence
to introduce it into the forecast at this time.

Flow aloft will quickly shift into a more zonal pattern by Tuesday,
with high-pressure building in at the surface. This will allow
temperatures to quickly start to rebound, with a more seasonable
feel expected by Wednesday. There is also some early indication of
multiple systems moving through the region closer to next weekend,
with low-end rain chances returning to the forecast by Friday.
Temperatures may drop once again with the deeper, second system
into Saturday, but the overall scope of impacts with this system
remains to be seen.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025

VFR conditions to continue across central Alabama through the next
24 hours. Showers and larger cloud deck have pushed to the east.
That will leave dry and mostly clear skies through the period.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MinRH values will more or less settle in the mid 30-40% range
through Wednesday, before slightly increasing into the weekend with
increasing rain chances. Unfortunately, widespread rainfall chances
are still limited, with drought conditions persisting across the
region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     36  64  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    38  64  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  38  63  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  36  66  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      37  66  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      41  65  44  71 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  38  67  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        38  66  40  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CST Monday for the following
counties: Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Chilton-Dallas-Etowah-Fayette-
Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Marengo-Marion-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-
St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION.../61/