362
FXUS63 KGRR 240757
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
257 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain Moving in Tonight

- Cold, Windy, Snow Showers Wednesday and Thursday

- Snow/Mix for the Weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

- Rain Moving in Tonight

A southern stream upper low ejecting out of the Southwest U.S.
brings cyclogenesis across the Plains today. The surface low
tracks into Lower Michigan with rain arriving tonight into
Tuesday. This is quickly followed by a northern stream shortwave
trough amplifying into a closed upper low and full latitude
troughing by Wednesday,

- Cold, Windy, Snow Showers Wednesday and Thursday

Colder air wraps in behind the low with 850mb temps falling below
minus 10C on Wednesday into Thanksgiving. Broad cyclonic flow
along with inversion heights near 8 kft will allow snow showers to
develop and these should penetrate far inland given the west-
northwest flow and mean boundary layer winds near 40 mph. Wind
gusts of 35 to 45 mph are possible Wednesday afternoon, especially
adjacent to Lake Michigan.

Snow showers should diminish by Friday as heights rise with the
upper trough shifting east. Snow amounts uncertain at this range
but it should be cold enough for snow to accumulate on roads and
affect travel from Wednesday to Thursday night.

- Snow/Mix for the Weekend

A longwave trough amplifying across the western CONUS phases with
an upper low across Hudson Bay creating a large baroclinic zone
across the central U.S. with an active storm track bringing rounds
of wintry precip to the Great Lakes beginning on Saturday. This
could cause travel impacts during the busy travel period next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1140 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

We are starting out this forecast period with clear skies and
light winds. This will likely continue through the night, with
only some thin high clouds possible.

High clouds will thicken after sunrise, but will stay high based
through much of the day. Winds will pick up late morning-early
afternoon from the south with gusts 20-25 knots expected, with the
highest gusts toward KMKG, and the lightest winds toward KJXN.

Winds will diminish around sunset, with clouds dropping down to
around 15k ft agl by then. Clouds will then lower below 10k ft
after 00z with some sprinkles/light showers passing through. For
the most part, VFR conditions will rule through the end of this
forecast period with ceilings likely remaining above 6k ft agl.
KMKG may have some lower clouds coming in off of the lake, but
confidence in that is low at this time. Conditions will drop lower
after this forecast period.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...NJJ