945
FXUS63 KGRR 180519
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1219 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wintry Mix Tuesday

- Chance for Rain Thursday into Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025


- Wintry Mix Tuesday

The weather system arriving early tomorrow morning has continued
to shift southward. Precipitation trends continue to shift
deepening on the location of the warm air advection. Current
trends have snow most likely along and north of the I 96 corridor.
Along and south of I 96 the warm air advection will cause a lack
of saturation in the DGZ. Warm air advection from latest CAMS has
+1C at 850mb into the I 94 corridor. That will limit snow
production. However, given marginal surface temperatures it could
mean some freezing rain/drizzle along with ice pellets at the
surface. Best QPF is along and south of the Michigan and Indiana
border.

The biggest concern will be that the wintry mix will arrive and
be strongest for the morning commute.

 The best chance for accumulating snow will be along and
northward of the I 96 corridor, though a half an inch or less is
expected. Between the I 96 and the I 94 corridor while snow
accumulations are expected, it will have quite the wintry mix,
with ice pellets predominate for a period.

 A wintry mix is expected along the I 94 corridor with the
biggest concern to be ice accumulations, especially bridges and
overpasses. Given the marginal temperatures any ice accumulations
will be along and south of the I 94 corridor. Have held off on any
advisory due to lack of certainty with amounts and temps.

Temperatures will warm after sunrise, though precipitation
will continue through the daytime, especially through southern
lower. Precipitation along the I 94 corridor should transition to
rain into the afternoon. Tuesday`s evening commute should be cold
and wet with slick spots.


- Chance for Rain Thursday into Friday

 Temperatures will continue to warm through the week with a return
to the 50s Thursday into Friday. However that will bring a chance
for rain Thursday night through Friday morning.
 Precip amounts will determine on low position, however the trough
should sweep through Thursday night though the best QPF remains
north and southward of Lower Michigan. Temperatures will continue
to trend around to just above normal through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1219 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

A low pressure system moving towards the Southern Great Lakes from
the Plains states tonight will bring lower ceilings and some
winter weather to the TAF sites Tuesday morning. Aviation
conditions will dip to MVFR and IFR as the precipitation moves in
towards morning. Conditions should begin to dip to MVFR around
12z at AZO and the progressively work through the rest of the TAF
sites during the morning. By 16z all TAF sites will have MVFR and
IFR conditions. Precipitation will start off as snow and gradually
mix with and change over to rain and drizzle as we head into the
afternoon. There is a period of time during the morning hours, 13z
to 15z especially where a little freezing rain may mix in, but we
do not feel this will be the dominant precipitation type given
air temperatures warm above freezing by midday and ground
temperatures are above freezing as well from the I-96 corridor TAF
sites southward. The precipitation should come to an end through
the afternoon with lower ceilings persisting past 00z along I-94.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ceru
AVIATION...Duke/RAH