Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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073
FXUS63 KGRR 010700
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
300 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Rain will end this morning as a cold front pushes east of Lower
Michigan. Canadian high pressure will bring fair and cool weather
into the weekend. Temperatures will be on the increase next week
as the high moves east and southwest winds develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Rain should be exiting the eastern zones early this morning.
Decided to add some slight chance POPS across the eastern border
through about 14z as timing of the back edge of the showers is a
bit slower than previously forecast.

Sfc ridging builds in today and persists through the rest of the
extended period. Temperatures will continue to average below
normal through Sunday although there will be some moderation each
day as the sfc high shifts east. No precipitation is expected.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2016

An increasingly warm and quite dry weather pattern will continue to
develop through the long range forecast period. A ridge of high
pressure will continue to bring fair wx with seasonably warm
temperatures through the Fourth of July holiday.

It is noted that guidance trends the past 24 hours suggest that all
pcpn associated with the quasi stationary boundary over the lower OH
valley region will stay south of our fcst area across portions of
IL/IN/OH Sunday night through the Fourth of July.

The heat will build toward the middle portion of next week with high
temperatures by Tue/Wed expected to reach the 85 to 90 degree range.
Humidity should begin to increase toward the middle portion of next
week as well. The next chance for some very beneficial rainfall will
come next Thursday into Friday as the next system moves in from the
west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1142 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Vfr conditions at the moment will gradually deteriorate to a mix
of vfr/mvfr then mvfr as lower clouds move in and a band of
showers moves through overnight.

The probability for an isolated storm overnight is too low to
warrant inclusion in any of the terminal fcsts. Earlier storms
off to the northwest have diminished to just showers.

Mvfr conditions will then continue into at mid morning Friday due
to lingering low clouds. Conditions will improve to vfr by around
midday Friday through Friday evening as nw winds that will
increase to around 15 kts Friday afternoon will advect a drier
airmass in.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Winds and waves will continue to be hazardous to small craft
through this evening and then diminish tonight as high pressure
builds in bringing calmer conditions for Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Generally dry conditions are expected to continue through the next
several days. Albeit minor, tonight`s rainfall will provide some
relief. South Central Lower Michigan may be less fortunate with
rainfall totals only between 0.10-0.20 of an inch. Amounts
increase to the northwest, possibly totaling around 0.30 of an
inch from Muskegon to Newaygo and Mount Pleasant. The upcoming 4th
of July weekend includes more sunshine and moderating
temperatures, quickly drying things out once again.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ037-043-050-
     056-064-071.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ostuno
SHORT TERM...Ostuno
LONG TERM...Laurens
AVIATION...Laurens
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...Ostuno



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