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000
FXUS63 KGRR 171758
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
158 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

IT WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL
INTO THE 50S IN SPITE OF QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN MAINLY FOR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A
MODERATING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
LIKELY NOT COMING UNTIL MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW WAA WILL HELP TO BOOST MAX TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 50S TODAY IN SPITE OF A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE AS WINDS VEER A
BIT MORE TO THE SW THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER DRY WX SHOULD PREVAIL
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME. MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY
AND WE TWEAKED THE MAX TEMP FCST UP BY SEVERAL DEGREES. QUITE A
BIT OF SUN WILL HELP TO BOOST MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR
60 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT WAS LEFT OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW.

WEAK SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY BUT WASHES OUT WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY UNDER WEAK SFC RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MAIN FOCUS OF THE 18Z FCSTS IS THE POTENTIAL OF RAIN TONIGHT AND
POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED LOWER CONDITIONS. ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AS OF 17Z THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE WATCHING
LOWER MVFR CLOUDS TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WE ARE
EXPECTING THEM TO MIX OUT/LIFT AS THEY TRY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
SOME WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE FCST PERIOD.

WE EXPECT LOWER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL
TIME/04Z ACROSS THE SE AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SE
LOWER. WE EXPECT THE RAIN AND LOWER CONDITIONS TO BE MAINLY SE OF
KGRR. RIGHT NOW WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE
RAIN. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE SE BEFORE CLEARING TAKES PLACE FROM NW TO SE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1146 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

NUMEROUS AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS WERE CANCELED TODAY BASED ON
UPDATED REPORTS FROM ROAD COMMISSIONS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS THAT
CONDITIONS WERE IMPROVING. FOR NEWAYGO...OSCEOLA...AND ISABELLA
COUNTIES THE AREA FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL WIDESPREAD
IMPROVEMENT IN ROAD CONDITIONS OCCURS DUE TO A RECESSION OF THE
FLOOD WATERS.

MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER CONTINUES WITH A
SLOW RECESSION FORECASTED. EVART WILL HOLD ABOVE MAJOR FLOOD STAGE
UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE CROTON WILL HOLD ABOVE MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. AS SUCH...SIGNIFICANT FLOOD
IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE PROPERTIES ALONG THE MUSKEGON
RIVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND UNFORTUNATELY. THE CROTON DAM
OPERATION CONTINUES TO REDUCE FLOWS DOWNSTREAM...LEADING TO A SLOW
AND STEADY DECLINE IN RIVER LEVELS FOR INTERESTS IN NEWAYGO AND
MUSKEGON COUNTIES. THE GOOD NEWS IS NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS IN SIGHT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO THE RIVER RECESSION WILL CONTINUE.

THE PERE MARQUETTE AND CHIPPEWA RIVERS CONTINUE TO HOLD BETWEEN
MINOR AND MODERATE FLOOD STAGE WITH BOTH RIVERS EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IMPACTS FROM FLOOD
WATERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THEN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...HOVING