Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGRR 010216
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1016 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE SNOW WILL END THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PARTIALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  THE WINDS WILL ALSO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE
AROUND 20 FOR THE EVENING TRICK-OR-TREATERS.  THE WEEKEND WEATHER
LOOKS MUCH QUIETER WITH SUNSHINE EACH DAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
COOLISH.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND
40.  SUNDAY WILL WARM A BIT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGER INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN COOL TO 45 TO 50 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

UPDATE ISSUED AT 559 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

WILL REMOVE ALL BUT THE SE COUNTIES FROM THE WIND ADVISORY. THE
TREND SHOULD BE DOWNWARD NOW AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE SYSTEM WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE EXITS
THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT.  THE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND
HAVE ADJUSTED THE END TIME TO WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST COUNTIES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
IT WILL BE TO OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT.  THIS WILL TAKE THE REMAINDER OF
THE SNOW WITH IT.  WE WILL ALSO SEE A FETCH COMING OFF LAKE HURON AS
THE FLOW WILL BE 010-020.  THIS MAY HELP LINGER THE LIGHT SNOW UNTIL
MIDNIGHT FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF INGHAM AND JACKSON COUNTIES.  AFTER
MIDNIGHT SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR LEADING TO LOWS IN THE 20S.

THE 010-020 FLOW WILL ALSO CAUSE THE STRONGER WINDS TO LINGER OVER
THE SE CWA A BIT LONGER THAN MOST OF THE CWA.  WITH THIS IN MIND
WILL ADJUST THE END TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY TO SUNDOWN EXCEPT FOR
SOME OF THE SE COUNTIES.  WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THERE THROUGH
06Z TONIGHT.

CALMER AND FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.  SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILDS IN...SO EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.  RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN ON SUNDAY AND TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

LIMITED CHANGES MADE IN THE LONG TERM. GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE GULF COAST INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST MONDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH CENTERED ON TUESDAY.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IS THEN FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS
LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO FRIDAY WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE. FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE MODEL CONSISTENCY
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM. LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER ECMWF
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY GIVEN THE RIDGING...BUT RAIN SHOULD
QUICKLY SPREAD IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN BEING MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW THEN SWINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SYSTEM WILL ACTUALLY TAP
SOME GULF MOISTURE WHILE THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM WILL BE MORE OF A
QUICK MOVING CLIPPER. THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD BE WITH THE EARLY WEEK
SYSTEM AS IT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS UP IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. HIGHS COOL A BIT
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BACK INTO THE 40S WHICH WILL IS BACK TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS WILL LEAD TO SOME IMPACT
TO AVIATORS. OTHERWISE REMAINING MVFR CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS THE WINDS DIMINISH. VFR WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS ICING. THROUGH TONIGHT...THERE IS A RISK FOR
ICING IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY FROM KLAN TO KJXN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1013 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

AS OF 1000 PM WE ARE STILL SEEING SOME OF THE COASTAL SITES
HITTING GALE FORCE WINDS. GIVEN THAT IS THE CASE AND OUR FORECAST
GOES OUT 5 NM...I WILL KEEP THE GALES GOING THROUGH 5 AM. OVERALL
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1144 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

NO HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK. RIVER
LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA ARE BELOW BANK FULL STAGES AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE
RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MJS






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.