Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
160 FXUS64 KBRO 081939 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 239 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Key Message: -Hot and unseasonably warm temperature are expected through the short term. -A Heat Advisory is in effect today until 7 PM for inland Cameron, inland Willacy, inland Kenedy, Hidalgo and Brooks counties. -A Heat Advisory has been issued for Thursday from 1 PM to 7 PM for inland Cameron, inland Willacy, inland Kenedy counties. The going forecast remains on track with the main story for the short term remains the unseasonably warm temperatures across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Continued zonal to slightly southwesterly flow aloft will maintain subsidence aloft, and keep higher moisture content near the surface. Temperatures are expected to be even warmer on Thursday, with highs in the triple digits, away from the coast. The combination of high temperatures and dewpoints will make "real feel" temperatures on Thursday to rise to between 105 degrees and 113 degrees. A Heat Advisory has been issued for inland Cameron, inland Willacy and inland Kenedy counties for Thursday afternoon. Models continue to indicate a dryline inching eastward tomorrow afternoon will drop dewpoint levels enough that a Heat Advisory will not be needed further west. Overnight temperatures will once again remain in the mid to upper 70s. Outsize of the heat, hazy conditions will continue, mainly along the eastern half of the CWA, as southerly winds continue to bring in smoke from the fires in Mexico and Central America. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 A cold front is expected to approach Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Friday morning. Once the front pushes through, temperatures are expected to be more seasonable in the upper 80s and lower 90s for the region. While the surface winds will shift behind the front towards the northeast, they will quickly shift back towards the east by Saturday and then southeast by Sunday. This will allow for temperatures to heat up again as the frontal boundary retreats backwards as a warm front. As such, temperatures will be back to being above normal with highs mostly in the mid to upper 90s and some places in the triple digits by Monday and lasting through the rest of the long term forecast period. Meanwhile, the overnight low temperatures are expected to be in the 70s. Plenty of low-level moisture along with a bit of forcing and instability could support the development of showers and thunderstorms during the passage of the cold front on Friday. A bit of a weak overrunning will support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. The return of the onshore flow on Sunday could also help a bit with the development of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Clouds are beginning to break up across the aerodromes with MVFR conditions prevailing at HRL and VFR at BRO and MFE through this afternoon. Though HRL could also see some brief periods of VFR, if visibilities improve. MVFR ceiling will return later this evening into the overnight, with IFR expected at BRO. Southerly to southeasterly winds will remain moderate with gust of around 20 to 25 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Tonight through Thursday Night...Moderate southeast winds and moderate seas will prevail through the forecast period. Tonight, we could see some patchy fog/hazy conditions on the Gulf waters. Brief periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will be possible in the afternoon, especially across the Laguna Madre due to elevated winds. Friday through Next Wednesday...Stronger northeasterly winds are expected to prevail in the wake of the cold front that will move over the Lower Texas Coast on Friday into Saturday. Small Craft Exercise Caution or Small Craft Advisories are possible for Friday afternoon. Winds are then expected to weaken on Saturday, with light to moderate winds and moderate seas prevailing along the Lower Texas Coast through the rest of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 78 102 77 92 / 0 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 77 106 75 91 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 78 107 77 95 / 0 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 109 76 95 / 0 0 0 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 88 78 83 / 0 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 99 76 88 / 0 0 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ250-251-253>255- 353. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ251-254-255. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68-McGinnis LONG TERM....64-Katz AVIATION...68-McGinnis