Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KFGF 032338
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES PLANNED FOR THIS EARLY EVENING. WINDS
EXPECTED TO DIE OFF WITH SUNSET... AS SHOULD CLOUDS OVER NCNTRL
MN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES WHICH WILL PICK
UP AGAIN BY WED AFTERNOON. AS FOR NOW...LOOKING AT QUIET NW FLOW.
LITTLE BREEZIER CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCT-BKN CUMULUS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT A LITTLE COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY ALTHOUGH WINDS
SHOULD BE LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE WED AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
POTENTIAL PCPN EVENT. AMERICAN MODELS WERE VERY CONSISTENT IN
DEPICTING THE BEST CHANCES AT 18Z BETWEEN KBIS AND KABR. THEN THEY
WOULD DROP THESE INTO EASTERN SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN...IN THE
AXIS OF BETTER MOISTURE. ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES AT 18Z WED
OVER WESTERN ND...SHIFTING THRU OUR ENTIRE FA WED NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT SPC HAS AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER BUT WOULD HOPE TO SEE
BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THIS EVENT. NOT SEEING A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL INTO THU EITHER ALTHOUGH OVERALL TREND SEEMS DRIER. WILL
LEAVE SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES TO BLEND WITH ADJACENT OFFICES
ALTHOUGH IT COULD VERY WELL BE DRY TOO.

THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MORE ACTIVE ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND PERIOD.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES AND
ASSOCIATED FROPAS...CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. BUT THE MOST OPPORTUNE
TIME FOR PRONOUNCED COLD FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE LOOKS LIKE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW PRESSURE LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH
OF BORDER BUT INCREASING SHEAR AND FORCING COULD COME TOGETHER FOR
SEVERE EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WEEKEND INTO MONDAY SHOULD BE
DRY MOST OF THE TIME SO ONLY MARGINAL CHC POPS MAINTAINED AS
RIPPLES MOVE THROUGH. MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED...VALUES THAT ARE NOT FAR FROM SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD DIMMINISH WITH SUNSET AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY FORENOON.
SCATTERED VFR CIGS OVER NORTHCENTRAL MN SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET... WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON
AVIATION...GUST


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.