000
FXUS63 KMPX 141842
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
142 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

LOW CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION THIS AFTN IN THE WAKE OF A
PASSING CDFNT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVE AS HIGH PRES
BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD ACRS THE REGION FOR TNGT. THE HIGH PRES SPOKE
EXTENDING SWD FROM CANADA WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E LATE TNGT AHEAD
OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER DROPPING SSE FROM WRN CANADA ACRS THE
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A TROF OF LOW PRES ESEWD OVER THE
DAKOTAS INTO MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUT ITS TRACK MAY BE
CLOSE ENOUGH DURG THE DAY TMRW TO SPREAD -SHSN OR -SN INTO SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE MPX CWFA FOR TMRW. PRECIP AREA WILL BE CONFINED TO
AREAS S OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...AND AM EXPECTING VERY LITTLE TO
IMPACT ST. CLOUD THRU THE TWIN CITIES TO EAU CLAIRE...IF ANYTHING
HITS THOSE AREAS AT ALL. FOR SWRN MN...IT LOOKS TO BE VERY LITTLE
ACCUMULATION BUT POPS ARE ONLY IN THE SLGT-LOW CHC RANGE SO THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT. THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE IS MEAGER WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ONLY
OTHER NET EFFECT FROM THIS COLD FROPA AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR...ALBEIT MODEST. AFTER HIGHS HITTING
THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S EARLY TDA...LOWS WILL DROP TO THE TEENS AND
20S TNGT FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 20S TO LOWER 30S SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

THE LONG TERM LOOKS RATHER ACTIVE...PARTICULARLY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM
IMPACTING THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRIOR TO THIS HOWEVER...A COUPLE WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MN AND AREAWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD.

A LARGE AND FAIRLY STRONG 1036MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
MANITOBA EARLY SATURDAY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA SATURDAY NIGHT. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR A BAND OF SNOW...MAINLY TO THE LOW PRESSURE SIDE OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN/WESTERN MN. DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING LITTLE CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI...BUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED
AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 94 TO ACCOUNT FOR DIFFERENCES AMONG
MODELS OF WHERE THIS BAND WILL SET UP. THERE WILL ULTIMATELY BE A
TIGHT GRADIENT. AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER LIGHT...LESS THAN AN INCH.

THE HIGH WILL BUILD FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
WHILE A WARM FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO MN SUNDAY
NIGHT. WAA SNOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT APPEARS LIKELY...BUT
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL KEEP AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT ALSO LIGHT
AND LESS THAN AN INCH OR TWO...HIGHEST BEING OVER CENTRAL MN WHERE
THE BETTER FORCING SHOULD SET UP.

MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SYSTEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON WILL CRASH ASHORE
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ALSO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL VARIABILITY HAS
BEEN REDUCED QUITE A BIT FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN TERMS OF WHETHER
THERE WOULD EVEN BE A SYSTEM...BUT MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY IS
STILL RATHER POOR WITH TIMING AND TRACK. THERE ARE 3 DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS CURRENTLY ON THE TABLE. ONE IS THE ECMWF WHICH IS WEAKER
WITH THE MID LEVEL ENERGY BUT IS FURTHEST NORTH AND BRINGS A SWATH
OF HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF THE CWA. ANOTHER SOLUTION IS THE CANADIAN
WHICH DIGS THE ENERGY MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF AND HAS
MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE THAN A CLOSED UPPER LOW RESULTING IN A
SOUTHERN OUTLIER STORM TRACK. THIS DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY GIVEN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE ENERGY ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE THIRD SOLUTION
IS THE GFS AND UKMET WHICH ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER AND THE
GFS ENSEMBLES. THEY KEEP A COMPACT UPPER LOW...DIGGING IT INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY TUESDAY MORNING AND LIFTING IT UP INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. TIMING AND TRACK ARE RATHER CLOSE AND
LIE BETWEEN THE GEM AND EC SOLUTIONS...ALBEIT PERHAPS A TAD
SLOWER. INTERESTINGLY...DESPITE THE LARGE DIFFERENCES ALOFT...THE
EC AND GFS ARE RATHER CLOSE WITH QPF PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY AND
PRESENT THE SAME SENSIBLE IMPACTS FOR THE AREA. THE GFS/UKMET CAMP
SEEMS THE MOST APPROPRIATE TO GO WITH AT THIS JUNCTURE...WHICH
WOULD MEAN A DECENT CHANCE FOR A HEAVY SNOW EVENT WITH SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS IF ENOUGH MOISTURE CAN GET INGESTED INTO THE
CYCLONE. STILL A WAYS OUT AND THINGS CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN BUT IT IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

EXTENSIVE MVFR SHIELD COVERING MUCH OF CENTRAL-SRN MN INTO WRN WI
THIS AFTN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD. AM LOOKING FOR MVFR CIGS TO
SCATTER OUT LATE THIS AFTN...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TIMING AND
WILL ADJUST AS NEEDED. AM EXPECTING SKIES TO GO VFR LATE THIS
EVENING AND REMAIN AS SUCH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THAT
SAID...THERE WILL BE A HIGH CI SHIELD MOVING IN FROM THE WNW THAT
WILL CREATE UPR LEVEL CEILINGS...AND THESE CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
DROP THROUGH THE DAY TMRW. ALL SITES LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THRU MID-
AFTN TMRW...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY KRWF WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES DROPPING SE THRU THE DAKOTAS AND
MAY SPREAD SOME -SHSN/-SN INTO SWRN MN. THE PRECIP SHIELD LOOKS TO
REMAIN S OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP PRECIP OUT
OF ALL THE REMAINING TAF SITES...INCLUDING THE LATE AFTN PORTION
OF KMSP DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE PRECIP WOULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THAT FAR N AND LOW PRECIP CHCS ADVERTISED IN OTHER PRODUCTS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NW INTO THE EVE HRS...THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TO ARND 10 KT AND VEER TO THE NE BY LATE TMRW MRNG.

KMSP...MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THRU LATE AFTN...POSSIBLY EVEN LATER
THAN THE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED 22Z...SO WILL NEED TO SEE HOW TRENDS
EVOLVE UPSTREAM AND ADJUST WITH AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED. HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON SKIES GOING VFR BY 02Z...IF NOT SOONER...AND SKIES
REMAINING VFR THOUGH HIGH CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWER THRU THE DAY AS A WEAK LOW PRES
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. ATTM...HAVE LEFT KMSP DRY AS
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE PRECIP...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT VFR OR
POSSIBLY EVEN MVFR -SN LATE AFTN TMRW BUT WILL NEED TO SEE IF THE
TRACK OF IT CHANGES IN SPEED OR DIRECTION. EITHER WAY...AM NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM FOR TOMORROW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS ESE 5-10 KT.
MON...VFR. CHC MVFR/-SN OR -RASN. WINDS S 5-10 KT.
TUE...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN LGT-MOD SNOW. WINDS NE 10-20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JPC