Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 270900
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
400 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

A complex of severe storms across northern Kansas has generated a
large shield of mid/upper level clouds which is streaming northeast
into western MN this morning. A few showers have reached
southeastern South Dakota with another band of broken showers
associated with a mid level vort across western and northern South
Dakota into southeastern Wyoming. The showers over southeastern
South Dakota may clip southern MN today with the showers further
west lifting northeast into northern MN late this afternoon and
tonight. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast, with the fewest
clouds between the two features generating precip. Temps should
reach the low to mid 70s this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

No significant changes to the long term forecast. An upper level
trough will drive low level cold air advection through latter half
of the holiday weekend bringing northwest winds and temperatures in
the 60s for Monday through Wednesday. A few showers are possible as
well during this time frame as the cold air aloft together with late
May surface heating leads to some deeper cumulus development and
rain showers.

Looking ahead, the cold air departs the region on Wednesday, with
southerly flow returning Wednesday night into Thursday. This will
bring 70s back across Minnesota and Wisconsin. Forecast temperatures
may be too cool on Thursday as we currently sit on the cool side of
guidance. Friday looks to be warm as well, but there could be some
convection along a warm front that is forecast to lift northward
across the Upper Midwest, so did not adjust temperatures from the
blended guidance. As of now, seasonable weather looks to return for
the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 849 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Made no substantive changes to the forecast from earlier. Last bit
of convection will be out of the area by TAF time, with VFR
conditions expected through the period. There is a slight chance a
shower could impact the area later tomorrow, but guidance still
suggests it should stay either closer to the baroclinic zone to
our south or the mid-level cold pool to our north, so continued to
just carry mid/high clouds through the period.

KMSP...Only item that could differ from forecast would be the
the height of VFR ceilings on Saturday, and whether things remain
scattered longer than expected.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sunday...VFR. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. West wind
5 to 10 kt becoming northwest 10 to 20 kt.
Sunday night...MVFR possible. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
West northwest wind 10 to 15 kt.
Monday...MVFR possible. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. West
northwest wind 10 to 20 kt.
Monday night...VFR. West wind 5 to 15 kt.
Tuesday...VFR. West northwest wind 10 to 20 kt.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...



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