000
FXUS63 KMPX 071112
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
512 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

VERY COLD TEMPS THIS MORNING WITH MANY READINGS BETWEEN 10 AND 20
BELOW ZERO AS OF 230 AM. THE COLDEST AREAS WERE LOCATED IN MORRISON
COUNTY WHERE DEEPER SNOW EXISTS AND WINDS ARE LESS. EVEN WITH A
5 TO 10 MPH WIND...WIND CHILL VALUES HAVE AVERAGED BETWEEN 20 AND 35
BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST READINGS IN WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL MN.
REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING MANY CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD WITH
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MORE SNOWFALL BY LATE
TONIGHT...AFFECTING THE GREAT BASIN OF NEVADA/UTAH. THRU THIS
EVENING...NO WX PROBLEMS WILL OCCUR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COLD WIND
CHILLS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WIND CHILL WARNING/ADVISORY THRU NOON
DUE TO THE VERY COLD TEMPS AND WINDS STILL AVERAGING CLOSE TO 10 MPH
THRU THE MORNING. LATE TONIGHT...AND WITH THE COMBINATION OF RAPID
RETURN OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE INFLUX OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...SHOULD INDUCE A
BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NEBRASKA/IOWA/SD. AS
WITH ANY ARCTIC AIR MASS...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH MAY DELAY THE ONSET OF -SN BY
SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG
UPGLIDE OF ADIABATIC OMEGA OR ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
STARTING 6Z-12Z/8. EVEN SOME OF THE LOCAL MODELS REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT
IS SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF -SN SPREADING ACROSS FAR SW MN AFT
6Z...AND ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN MN BY 12Z. WILL CONTINUE THE SAME
FORECAST WITH THE BULK OF THE QPF AND -SN ACROSS SW/SC MN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. THE INTENSIFY AND COVERAGE SHOULD EXPAND ON SUNDAY AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER TO THE E/NE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

THINGS ARE RIGHT ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT BOUT OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND A
MIDLEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO
LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...AS MODEST
/BUT DEEP/ ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPANDS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN ON THE MODEST SIDE...BUT SNOW RATIOS
/APPROXIMATELY 20-25 TO 1/ SHOULD HELP PLOWABLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
TO COME TO FRUITION. EXPECT THIS TO BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL MN NORTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL
WI...WHERE A SOLID SWATH OF 3-5 INCHES IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 09Z
SUNDAY AND 09Z MONDAY. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF A LIGHT/FLUFFY
SNOW EVENT /WITHOUT INTENSE BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW/...AND THE
ABSENCE OF STOUT WINDS...THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY APPEARS SOMEWHAT
BORDERLINE AT THIS POINT. WE WILL SEE WINDS PICK UP ON MONDAY
HOWEVER...WHICH WILL LIKELY YIELD BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND
ANOTHER BRUSH WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL MN. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE ZERO
DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN...WITH SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED AREA-
WIDE.

ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS SLATED TO
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM CANADA...AND BRING A QUICK
SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW TO CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WI. AS TYPICAL OF
CLIPPER SYSTEMS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE INCH WOULD BE
COMMON WITH THIS FEATURE. A REINFORCEMENT OF THE COLD AIR
INFILTRATES THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF CLIPPER...WITH 5 BELOW TO 15
BELOW LOWS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR 25
BELOW TO 30 BELOW WIND CHILLS.

THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT SOME RELIEF FROM THE BITTER COLD WILL
ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK...AS LOW/MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY. BY
FRIDAY...HIGHS IN 20S APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

VFR CONDS THRU 00Z/08 WITH WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE W/WNW ARND 8-10
KTS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUNSET. KRWF WILL BEGIN TO SEE
-SN AFT 3Z...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS BECOMING LIKELY AFT 6Z.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH SOME -SN POSSIBLE BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT
BECOME MORE SE/ESE.

KMSP...

VFR CONDS THRU 6Z/08 WITH WINDS WNW ARND 8-10 KTS...BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY 00Z...THEN SE/ESE AFT 6Z/8. CLDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AND LOWER AFT 6Z...WITH -SN BECOMING LIKELY TOWARD 12Z. A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY AFT 12Z WITH CIGS SLOWLY
LOWERING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY HOLD NEAR THE SE/ESE UNDER 10 KTS AFT
12Z/08. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR VFR CONDS THRU 6Z...WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE OF IFR VSBYS AFT 12Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SUN AFTN...MVFR/IFR WITH SN. WINDS ESE AT 5-10KTS.
MON...MVFR/-SN ENDING EARLY...THEN VFR. WINDS W AT 15G25KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WNW 15G25KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ045-052-053-
     060>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ041>044-047>051-
     054>059.

WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ014>016-023>028.

&&

$$


SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JLT