000
FXUS63 KMPX 130826
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
326 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A CDFNT STEADILY SAGGING SWD
THRU CENTRAL MN AND NWRN WI...AS EVIDENCED BY WINDS SHARPLY SHIFTING
TO THE NW WITH THE FROPA AND WINDS STILL WSW IN ADVANCE OF THE
CDFNT. TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ALSO DROP OFF NOTICEABLY BEHIND THE CDFNT...
AND THIS CDFNT WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY DROP SEWD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. VERY LITTLE PRECIP TO SPEAK OF WITH THIS FRONT...MAINLY
JUST A OF KDLH THIS MRNG...BUT THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF FOG OVER SRN
MN INTO W-CENTRAL WI BUT THIS WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
AND AM NOT LOOKING FOR IT TO GO DENSE WITH WINDS WILL CLOSE TO 5 MPH
THRU DAYBREAK. AS THE FRONT EXITS...VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
LEFT IN ITS WAKE...ALLOWING FOR MOCLR SKIES TDA. THE COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY INVADE FROM THE N
BUT AM NOT LOOKING FOR THE TRUE CAA TO COMMENCE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MRNG. HIGHS WILL STILL GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH THE
MID 70S TDA...THOUGH SOME SPOTS IN FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE MPX CWFA
MAY HOLD IN THE LWR 70S. LATER THIS EVE AND TNGT IS WHEN THE COLDER
AIR WILL MAKE ITS MOVE INTO THE AREA AS H85 TEMPS DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO LOW TEMPS TNGT HITTING THE
LOW-MID 50S. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A POST-FRONTAL TROF IN ADVANCE
OF THE LARGE UPR LVL LOW PRES CENTER DROPPING INTO THE GRT LKS FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TNGT INTO EARLY MON. THIS TROF WILL BE THE LEADING
EDGE FOR A BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE N. THOUGH MUCH OF THE
MPX CWFA WILL REMAIN DRY THRU TMRW MRNG...A TIER OR TWO IN NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOME RAIN SHWRS SO HAVE
INCLUDED 20-30 POPS OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE OTHER ISSUE
WITH THE FROPA WILL BE AN INCRS IN WIND SPEEDS...MAINLY THIS AFTN
AND EVE WITH A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT POST-FRONT...BUT NOTHING
EXCESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

THE WELL ADVERTISED COOL DOWN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY STILL LOOKS
ON TRACK...SO DIDN`T CHANGE THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FORECAST ALL
THAT MUCH. THE TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE DICTATED BY STRONG
COLD ADVECTION AND THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/SHOWERS. IN THESE
STRONG ADVECTION CASES...IT IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO IMPROVE UPON
/OR BEAT/ CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE IF THERE IS A TIGHT CLUSTERING
OF TEMPERATURE OUTPUT AMONG MULTIPLE MODELING SYSTEMS...WHICH
THERE IS IN THIS CASE. IN GENERAL...MODEL FORECAST HIGHS RANGE
BETWEEN 59-68 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING THE TWIN
CITIES/ST.CLOUD/EAU CLAIRE. OUR FORECAST HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE NEAR
THE MEDIAN OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD STILL PUT US
UNDER THE RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 68 AT MSP...STC AND EAU FOR JULY
14. COINCIDENTALLY...JULY 14 /IN 1936/...IS THE HOTTEST DAY ON
RECORD FOR MUCH OF MINNESOTA...INCLUDING 108 IN THE TWIN CITIES
AND 111 AT EAU CLAIRE. THE ST. CLOUD RECORD IS ACTUALLY JULY 13
WHERE IN 1936 IT REACHED 107 DEGREES. SO...WE`LL BE ABOUT 50
DEGREES SHY OF THOSE VALUES ON MONDAY AND ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. IN FACT...IT WILL FEEL EVEN COOLER WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THAT SHOULD
GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE COLD ADVECTION
OF 850MB TEMPS SUGGESTS WE WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM BRINGING DOWN THE
WINDS NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER.

BEYOND MONDAY...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS DRY IN TERMS OF
BOTH PRECIP AND HUMIDITY WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. RETURN
FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT 925-850MB FLOW IS
REALLY DIRECTED MORE TOWARD NE/SD/ND. THE 13.00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS
AND PREVIOUS ENSEMBLES REALLY WANT TO HOLD THE THERMAL RIDGE BACK
TO OUR WEST UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY. PRECIP CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED
ARE TIED TO THE WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.
IGNORE THE SPURIOUS LIGHT QPF GENERATED NEAR THE LOCAL AREA THIS
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

TWO ISSUES TO DEAL WITH OUT THE GATE WITH THE 06Z TAFS. THE FIRST
IS PATCHY FOG FORMING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL WI
WHERE WINDS HAVE BECOME QUITE LIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ALONG WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
THIS IS ON TOP OF THE RAIN THAT FELL TODAY. THIS AFFECTS
KRWF...KRNH AND KEAU. NOT TOO KEEN ON KMSP HAVING MVFR BR WITH A
BIGGER SPREAD BETWEEN THE TEMP AND DEW POINT (HEAT ISLAND). HAVE
INCLUDED MVFR CIGS AS WELL FOR KRNH AND KEAU FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH KAXN BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AND WORK IT WAYS TO A
POSITION SOUTH OF A KRWF TO KEAU LINE BY 12Z. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
TURN DUE NORTH AND PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE
FRONT BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO A NW DIRECTION. A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BUT A
FEW BOGEYS MAY MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. VCSH INCLUDED. VFR ON SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. SPEEDS 12-16 KNOTS FOR THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON ALONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.

KMSP...A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MN WILL PASS THE AIRFIELD IN
THE 09Z-10Z TIME FRAME. A DRY PASSAGE FORECAST WITH BKN-OVC VFR
CLOUDS. SCT CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
(16G23KTS) FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...MVFR PSBL WITH CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. NW WINDS 15-30 KTS.
TUE...VFR. NW WINDS 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. NW WINDS 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...RAH