National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FNUS73 KMPX 241439
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Scharf WMA Rx Burn...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
939 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on April 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...For the Scharf WMA Rx Burn, skies will be mostly
sunny today with a few high clouds moving through from west to
east midday. This will allow highs today to be in the mid to upper
60s. Dry conditions are expected, with relative humidity values
forecasted to be in 50s this morning before dropping into the mid
20s by the afternoon. Winds will be light and southerly at 5-10
MPH.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Temperature.........52 at ignition...Max 67.
RH..................46 percent at ignition...Min 21 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 7 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South winds 6 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /12400 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /65700 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 7300 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR PC  PC  PC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............52  56  59  62  64  65  67  67  67  66  63  58
RH..............46  37  30  25  23  23  21  22  22  24  29  37
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..7   6   6   6   7   8   7   9   9   9   8   10
20 FT wind gust.9   9   8   8   9   10  10  12  12  12  13  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 3.8 5.1 5.9 6.4 6.9 7.3 7.3 7.3 5.8 0.6 0.5
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   SE  SE
Transp wind spd.8   7   7   7   8   8   9   10  12  13  10  14
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Temperature.........Min 47.
RH..................Max 58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 8 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (72600 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (5300 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 13 mph shifting to the southeast 14
                    to 17 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Temperature.........Max 72.
RH..................Min 32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 15 to 24 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (9000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (89200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (123400
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 18 to 26 mph shifting to the south 28
                    to 31 mph late in the morning.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Dye
Requested by...Nicholas Snavely
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412277.0/MPX
.DELDT 04/24/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Nicholas.Snavely@state.mn.us