Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 281711
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1011 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 216 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NRN PLAINS...WITH A
STRONG WAVE FLATTENING THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. ANOTHER
WAVE IS NOTED OVER SWRN WY. AT THE SFC...LEE TROF HAS ADVANCED
THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS...WITH CDFNT PUSHING INTO NRN MT.

TODAY...CDFNT OVER NRN MT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SEWD AND CROSS THE
CWFA DURING THE AFTN HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MRNG AS
850MB WINDS OF 40-45KTS ATTEMPT TO MIX TOWARDS THE SFC...WITH
WINDS INCREASING FURTHER THIS AFTN BEHIND THE CDFNT AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN. CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD. COULD BE A FEW -SHRA
FROM NERN WY THROUGH THE BLKHLS INTO SWRN SD AS WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER SWRN WY MOVES EWD...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE MILD AGAIN TODAY...BUT STILL ABOUT 10-15F DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAYS RECORD BREAKING WARMTH.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE EVE WITH SFC HIGH
SETTLING INTO THE WRN ZONES BY MRNG.

THURSDAY...PLENTY OF INSOLATION EXPECTED WITH SFC HIGH COVERING
THE NRN PLAINS. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH TEMPS IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 216 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

ONE MORE ABOVE AVERAGE DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON A STRONGER COOLDOWN FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH GFS ENSEMBLE STILL SHOWS A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD OF
POSSIBLE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON SATURDAY. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER AND AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCES FOR POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...MOSTLY FAR NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND FAR NORTHWEST
SD. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE ON SATURDAY...THEN GENERALLY
BELOW AVERAGE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 1009 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KTS AND GUSTS TO 40 KTS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD DURING THE DAY.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING FOR BOTH KGCC AND
KRAP. ADDED MVFR CIGS TO KGCC TAF...BUT DO NOT AGREE WITH THE LOW
CIGS AT KRAP SO LEFT THEM OUT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ043-044-046-047-049.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014-025-026-031-032-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...POJORLIE





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