Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 221326
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
426 AM AKST Sun Jan 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Very good initialization against the 22/06Z surface
analysis. Run to run continuity has been very good, even into the
extended periods, however there has been some discrepancy in the
run to run temperature outputs as they struggle to handle the
clouds.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...480 dam low high in the arctic near the
dateline will move west with the long wave trough shifting west
of the Gulf of Anadyr over Siberia Monday. A 505 dam low will
remain over Kotzebue Sound until late evening then move northeast
as it fills. A shortwave lies southeast over Kodiak City from the
low and will move northeast through the day to lie from Kotzebue
Sound to Prince William Sound this evening, and from Point Barrow
to Dawson Yukon Territory Monday morning. The shortwave will move
northeast into the Beaufort Sea Monday evening. A ridge over the
Southeast Bering Sea and Bristol Bay will move over the southwest
mainland this evening and move northeast to lie from Kotzebue
Sound to Burwash Landing Yukon Territory by Monday evening. The
ridging will persist over the eastern and southeastern interior
through most of the week. A 495 dam low will move to just south of
the western Aleutians this morning, to the central Aleutians this
evening, and over Dutch Harbor by Monday evening. A shortwave
associated with the low will move north up the back of the ridge
into the interior early Tuesday morning, and then slide into the
Yukon and Beaufort Sea by late afternoon. At 850 hpa...The 20
below isotherm lies from Old Crow to Sleetmute then west this
morning and will move back to the northwest to lie from Komakuk
Beach Yukon Territory to Nome by Monday morning, and pushes north
of the arctic coast by Tuesday morning.

Surface...Ridging over Canada and the Western interior with a
weak trough lying southwest to northeast across the middle Tanana
Valley and upper Yukon Flats this morning. A broad area of low
pressure lies over the arctic around a 986 mb low high near the
North Pole. A 959 mb low will move east over the Aleutians to be
near Dutch harbor by Tuesday morning, then remains stationary for
around 24 hours before moving northwest into the Bering Sea. Gap
winds developing in the eastern Alaska Range Tuesday as leeside
trough develops in the upper Tanana Valley.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...A weak front making a glancing
blow over the area again today will spread some clouds and
possibly some light snow or flurries to the northwest and central
arctic coast again today. Wind chill is still an issue around
Nuiqsut and Deadhorse, but winds diminishing and temperatures
rising this morning so conditions improving by noon. Winds
generally southwest to west 5 to 15 mph today swinging around
tonight to northeast to east.

West Coast and Western Interior...Pretty quiet. Some high clouds
moving into the lower yukon Delta as the low moves east over the
Aleutians. Patchy stratus in the Bering Strait, otherwise clear
conditions will prevail. Lows will fall into the 30s below again
tonight in the Western Interior, but a warming trend starting
today will see temperatures rising Monday through the remainder of
the week. Winds generally light.

Central and Eastern Interior...Clouds along the western flank of
the ridge will make this a tricky forecast again today. Areas that
keep clouds will be quite a bit warmer than those that clear out.
The good news is that temperatures across the area will be
trending up as south flow develops aloft in advance of a low
pressure system that will move to the Alaska Peninsula Tuesday
morning. Most areas will have light winds, but look for southeast
winds to pick up around Delta Junction to 5 to 15 mph today and
10 to 20 mph Monday.

&&

Coastal Hazards Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Chill Warning for AKZ203.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210.

&&

$$

SDB JAN 17


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