Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 281233
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
433 AM AKDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Still seeing some issues with the amount of
precipitation some of the models are producing over the interior,
so will lean on the NAM which the last couple weeks has been doing
a much better job as far as coverage. For 28/00Z runs the surface
initialized well at 28/06Z against the in house analysis. Run to
run not seeing significant changes in the solutions, and they
continue to match up well into the midrange as far as big picture
goes.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging persists north of the Alaska Range
with the axis lying from Carmacks YT to Shishmaref, but will start
to rotate northeast and will merge with the high that is moving
over the Beaufort Sea. A weak trough over the Brooks Range
dissipates this morning. A 539 dam high is 250 nm northeast of
Point Barrow and will drift east into the Beaufort Sea by Saturday
afternoon, then north. A 532 dam low over Cold Bay is dissipating
and will merge with a 509 dam low that moves over Shemya by
Saturday morning. The low over Shemya will continue to move east
to the central Aleutians by Sunday morning and a shortwave will
move north over the Gulf of Alaska coast Sunday morning, then
north to the Alaska Range by Sunday evening, then over the
interior on Monday. At 850 hpa...Temperatures advection relatively
flat across the forecast area through the weekend.

Surface...A 1031 mb high 100 nm east of Banks Island has ridging
extending west northwest into the Siberian arctic. A broad area of
generally low pressure lies over the state and Bering Sea. A
leeside/thermal trough lies in the upper Tanana Valley and central
Yukon Territory and will persist. A weak ridge lies over the
northern Gulf of Alaska and Copper River Basin with weak troughing
to the south over the northeast Pacific. 973 mb low in the
western Bering Sea will slowly fill as it moves near Shemya and a
988 mb low develops over the north Pacific and moves to the
central Aleutians by Saturday morning. The low in the central
Aleutians will move near the Pribilofs Saturday night, then merge
with the primary low as it moves to the central Aleutians at 988
mb Sunday.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...As the ridging over the arctic
continues to slide east the flow across the area is changing to
southeast and the sheet of stratus that is over the arctic is
being pushed offshore a bit. That means a few more breaks in the
low clouds and flurries/light snow that has been occuring the last
few days. The clearing will bring on a better chance of some fog
development in the area so expect reduced visibility at times.
Winds east to southeast 10 to 20 mph. lighter winds in inland
locations.

West Coast and Western Interior...Another day just like yesterday,
with lots of clouds, but breaks, and some showers of rain and
snow mainly south of the Bering Strait. Mainly rain, but mixing or
changing to snow overnight north of the Lower Yukon Delta.
Northeast to east winds at 5 to 20 mph in coastal areas with light
winds inland.

Central and Eastern Interior...Generally Cloudy, with some periods
of sunshine. A few sprinkles or widely isolated showers across
the area today with highest probability in the Fortymile Country.
Winds variable to 10 mph.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Cloudy, widely scattered showers in the interior.
Relative Humidity values above 30 percent in all areas. No wetting
rains expected, but some showers may be heavy enough to produce
locally wetting rains. No significant winds expected through the
weekend.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&

$$

SDB APR 17


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