Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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000
FXAK69 PAFG 192327
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
227 PM AKST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
A long wave trough over mainland Alaska will persist through Mon
and then lift northeast Tue night through Wed night as a strong
ridge builds over mainland AK Wed through Thu. Several short waves
will move northeast across Interior through Wed with bands of
light snow with each trough. Flow aloft will turn southwest over
the West Coast Wed and over the remainder of Northern Alaska Thu
and Thu night bringing significant snowfall with it along with a
chance of freezing rain in the southern Interior. Temperatures
will remain near or below normal through Tue under the long wave
trough and then warm along the West Coast Wed...and over the
remainder of northern Alaska Thu and Fri.

A trough stretching from a low near Kotzebue to Kodiak will move
to Kotzebue to Anchorage by 3pm Mon...to Kotzebue to Northway by
4pm Tue...to Barter Island to Inuvik by 3pm Tue. Clouds and light
snow or flurries northeast of this trough will clear southwest of
the trough. Will see temperatures drop into the 20s and 30s below
in the clear areas southwest of the trough. There is a surface
low and cold front associated with this trough/low aloft.

A second and weaken short wave moving to the southwest Interior
of Alaska Tue night will move to the southeast Interior Wed.
Will see a chance of snow moving from west to east across the
southern Interior Tue night and Wed.

Surface...
A vertically stacked low near Kivalina will remain quasi-stationary
through 3pm Tue and then drift northeast. An occluded front from
the low to Norton Sound to Point Lay with a cold front from Point
Lay to Denali. There will be areas of light snow and flurries
around the surface low.

The cold front will move to Point Lay to Anchorage by 3am Mon...to
Wainwright to Denali by 3am Mon...to Wainwright to Fairbanks by
3pm Mon...to Wainwright to Big Delta by 3am Tue...to Deadhorse to
Northway 3pm Tue...and to north of the Arctic Coast and east of
the Alcan Border by 3am Wed. There will be light snow or flurries
along the front with less than 1 inch accumulation. Clearing skies
and much colder temperatures in the 20s and 30s below will develop
west of the front in the Interior with teens below along the west
coast.

A strong storm moving into the western Bering on Wed will push a
weather front north over the Bering Sea Wed. This will bring snow
and gales force winds to zones 213 and 214 Wed PM. There could be
blizzard conditions with this...but there could also be rain and
freezing rain so it is too uncertain to tell at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models show similar solutions through 3pm Wed. After that time
models agree on the long wave pattern but differ on the speed and
strength of short waves and their associated frontal systems. GFS
looks similar to other solutions through 3pm Wed so will go with
the GFS in the short term. Will use a mix of ensembles after Wed
night.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

JB FEB 17



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