Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 221431
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
631 AM AKDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA WILL MOVE EAST
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH TONIGHT. A SECOND SHORT WAVE OVER THE
RUSSIAN ARCTIC WILL MOVE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WED AND PHASE IN
WITH THE FIRST SHORT WAVE. A THIRD SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER
ALASKA THU AND MERGE WITH THE PREVIOUS WAVES TO FORM A LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. THIS TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS GENERALLY COOL AND WET THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

WEAK INSTABILITY IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM TANANA TO
DENALI WILL MOVE TO COLDFOOT TO NENANA BY 4PM TUE AND TO OLD CROW
TO EAGLE BY 4AM WED. THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS TROUGH NOW AND EXPECT THOSE SAME
CONDITIONS TO MOVE NE WITH THE TROUGH.

SURFACE...
A 988 MB LOW 500 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THIS LOW TO THE BROOKS
RANGE TO KOTZEBUE TO ST MATTHEW ISLAND WILL MOVE INLAND TO ARCTIC
VILLAGE TO AMBLER TO BETHEL BY 4PM TUE...TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO
BETTLES TO ANVIK BY 4AM WED...AND THE DISSIPATING FROM ARCTIC
VILLAGE TO MCGRATH BY 4PM WED. THERE IS WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT .25 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAIN THROUGH WED ALONG THE FRONT
WITH THE HEAVIEST IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE BROOKS RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE ARCTIC COAST TODAY AND WEAKEN
WED. THIS WILL CAUSE FOG ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST.

A LOW DEVELOPING IN CHUKOTKA TODAY WILL MOVE TO KIVALINA AS A
1002 MB LOW BY 4PM WED...TO ANAKTUVUK PASS BY 4AM THU...AND TO
ARCTIC VILLAGE BY 4PM THU. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS LOW WILL
BRING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE NORTH SLOPE AND WEST COAST OF
ALASKA WITH SNOW POSSIBLE IN NW ALASKA AND THE BROOKS RANGE WED
NIGHT AND THU. EXPECT ANOTHER .25 INCH OF RAIN WITH THE FRONT AND
.50-1.00 INCH ALONG THE BROOKS RANGE. COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE BROOKS RANGE WED NIGHT AND THU WITH THIS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THU.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION...
.25 TO 1.00 INCH EXPECTED THROUGH WED WESTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTH
SLOPES OF BROOKS RANGE FROM PIPELINE WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE RISES
ON KOYUKUK...KOBUK AND NOATAK RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS IN THOSE
BASINS OVER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WITH RIVER LEVELS ELEVATED OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND WESTERN
INTERIOR THIS NEW RAIN WILL PUT THEM AT HIGH LEVELS ALTHOUGH THE
RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

$$

JB JUL 14



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