Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
000
FXAK69 PAFG 272024
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1224 PM AKDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH FIRST 36 HOURS FOR THE MOST
PART. THE NAM CERTAINLY BELIEVES THAT THE SHORT WAVE MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM THE WEST COAST ON THU WILL DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW AT 500 SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FORT YUKON. THIS ACTUALLY MAY
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION CONSIDERING ALL OF THE MODELS DO GIVE
CONSIDERABLE PLAY TO THE INTENSITY OF THE SHORT WAVE.

THE SHORTWAVE IS GIVEN CONSIDERABLE PLAY BY THE GFS IF WE ONLY
OBSERVE THE QPF AMOUNTS. THE FRONTOGENESIS VALUES ARE NOT HUGELY
IMPRESSIVE ALOFT FROM THE GFS WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN NO UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THE NAM DOES SHOW SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS BUT IT ALSO
HAS A A CLOSED LOW. THE NAM DOES MAKE THE MOST SENSE AT THIS POINT
IN TERMS OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR THE QPF AMOUNTS DISPLAYED.

BELIEVE THAT THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE BROOKS RANGE. IT APPEARS
THAT THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL POSSIBLY GET A LITTLE PRECIPITATION
BUT MAY BE DOWNSLOPED OUT INITIALLY.

THE WEST COAST WILL SEE SOME RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SHORT
WAVE MOVES NORTHWARD BUT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL AFTER THE
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN COMPLETE DISAGREEMENT AS THE TIME
STEPS INCREASE WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING A COOL DOWN OVER ALL OF
NORTHERN ALASKA WITH A MAJOR COLD FRONT OVER THE ARCTIC COAST
WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS A COOLER PATTERN WITH A SLANTED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUT NOT NEAR THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF.

ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WILL POSE DENSE FOG THREATS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT ON THU BUT AT
THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT RH VALUES TO BE THAT LOW AS TO HAVE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING APPROXIMATELY AN INCH OR MORE OF QPF IN
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE
BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRI MORNING. THIS
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY HIGH WATER IN THE AREAS THAT
ALREADY HAVE SEEN FLOODING.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

CF MAY 15


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.