Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 311337
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
537 AM AKDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ALASKA AND NW CANADA WILL MOVE EAST
AS A RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA BUILDS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND THEN PERSISTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS THAT
THERE WILL BE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTH SLOPE WILL BE WINDY AND WET OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS IN THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW THERE BRINGS A SERIES OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EAST ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE. THE WEST COAST
WILL REMAIN UNDER WESTERLY FLOW KEEPING CONDITIONS FOGGY ALONG
THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.

CURRENT SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE INTERIOR
EAST OF MCGRATH TO CHANDALAR LAKE WILL ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THE FAR SOUTHEAST INTERIOR
WHERE THERE IS MORE MOISTURE.

SURFACE...
1004 MB LOW 300 NM WEST OF BARROW WILL MOVE TO 100 NM NORTH OF
BARROW BY 4PM FRI...TO 300 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY BY 4AM SAT AND
THEN CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST
FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN CHUKCHI SEA BY 4PM FRI...TO
BARTER ISLAND TO CAPE LISBURNE BY 4AM SAT...TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO
POINT HOPE BY 4PM SAT...AND THEN MOVING BACK NORTH OVER THE NORTH
SLOPE SUN AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA. WILL SEE
W WINDS 25 KT JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW WHICH WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE ARCTIC COAST WITH THE FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE WINDS OF
10-20KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE. WINDS
WILL ONLY LAST 12 HRS SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SURF ON THE NORTH
SLOPE COAST. WILL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF SIMILAR WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY OVER THE NORTH SLOPE WITH THE NEXT LOW.

EXPECT RAIN ALONG THE FRONT WITH AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS .25-.50 INCH
OVER THE BROOKS RANGE TONIGHT AND SAT...WITH ANOTHER .25-.50 INCH
SUNDAY. EXPECT JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE
WITH THE FRONT.

A 1022 MB HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STRATUS AND FOG ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE BERING SEA COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. START TO SEE
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND DETAILS OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS NEXT WEEK.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THU HAD MINIMUM RH VALUES ABOVE 40% OVER MOST OF STATE WITH ONLY
THE WESTERN INTERIOR BELOW 40%. TODAY EXPECT 30-40%RH ZONES
215-216-219. RH WILL RISE SLIGHTLY SAT WITH THE COLD FRONT.
WILL SEE WEST WINDS 10G20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
WESTERN INTERIOR WHICH SHOULD BOOST BURNING OF FIRE IN THAT AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER LEVELS JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE INTERIOR BUT NOW FALLING.
COULD SEE MICRO-SCALE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SE
INTERIOR TODAY. EXPECT RAIN ALONG THE FRONT WITH AMOUNTS AS HIGH
AS .25-.50 INCH OVER THE BROOKS RANGE TONIGHT AND SAT...WITH
ANOTHER .25-.50 INCH SUNDAY. EXPECT JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH
OF THE BROOKS RANGE WITH THE FRONT WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN .25
INCH.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

JB JUL 15


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