Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 021934
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1134 AM AKDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 12Z ANALYSIS AND VERIFIED
WELL AGAINST THE 18Z ANALYSIS. MUCH LESS MODEL SPREAD TODAY
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AND THE NAM12 AS COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. MODELS IN GENERAL ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE
DRIER NAM12 SOLUTION WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER THE ALASKA RANGE
AND EASTERN INTERIOR. INHERITED FORECAST WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY WITH
NAM12 SOLUTION.

UPPER AIR...LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM BARROW TO CORDOVA
WILL RETREAT SLOWLY WEST AND WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND THE
EASTERN ALASKA WEDNESDAY.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH OVER EASTERN ALASKA WILL BING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF EASTERN ALASKA AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. INSTABILITY WITH A COLD POCKET
ALOFT WILL ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WEST OF FAIRBANKS AND OVER
MUCH OF WESTERN ALASKA.

RAIN OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR WILL MIX WITH SNOW GENERALLY ABOVE
3500 FEET OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY AND LOWERING TO PASS LEVEL
THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED IN
THESE AREAS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL KEEP RH LEVELS ABOVE 40
PERCENT IN MOST AREAS WITH LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

CCC MAY 16


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