Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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000
FXAK69 PAFG 281001
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
201 AM AKDT THU JUL 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The main forecast concerns for northern alaska remain the potential
for widespread heavy rains over western alaska as well as the
interior.

The 00z models initialized well against the 00z analysis and
verified well against the 06z analysis. Model spread remains small
in the short term and mid term with only minor differences noted
in timing and position of precipitation. Model spread remains
reasonable into the long range.

Aloft at 500 hpa a 520 DM low 150 NM north of Wrangel Island will
drift south and east to be 150 NM northwest of Barrow Friday
morning and 300 NM north of Barrow Friday evening. A strong
shortwave currently along a Prudhoe Bay to the Bering Strait line
will continue to move south and east into the central interior
this afternoon. This front will be the focal point for scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and this evening
over the central and eastern interior. A stronger shortwave moves
south and east through the Bering Strait Friday as a surface low
moves east out of the Bering Sea into Norton Sound Friday evening.
Deep layer moisture will flow northeast along the west coast south
of the Seward Peninsula and western interior Friday and into the
central interior Friday night and Saturday. Storm total QPF
through Saturday are in the 1 to 2 inch range with locally higher
amounts. Flood Watches in effect for zones 210, 211, 212, 213 and
216. Will need to closely monitor potential for heavy rains and
need for additional headlines especially in the western Alaska
Range with favored upslope conditions and over the central
interior especially with recent rain events and rivers still
running high. A series of lows move west to east over the Brooks
Range which is a favored track for heavy precipitation over the
interior especially southwest and west facing terrain. Lows
continue to move over the Brooks Range and interior through the
weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
20 to 30 kt west to southwest flow along the lower yk delta coast
as well as Norton Sound will create the potential for elevated
surf late Friday and continuing through Saturday. At this point
storm surge is expected to be 1 to 3 feet above normal tides.
Those with interests or with personal property along the coast in
Norton Sound and along the lower YK Delta coast should move items
above high water line.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Minimal fire weather concerns with expected widespread wetting
rains over much of the west coast, western and central interior
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Storm total QPF through Saturday are in the 1 to 2 inch range
with locally higher amounts. Flood Watches in effect for zones
210, 211, 212, 213 and 216. Will need to closely monitor potential
for heavy rains and need for additional headlines especially in
the western Alaska Range with favored upslope conditions and over
the central interior especially with recent rain events and rivers
still running high. A series of lows move west to east over the
Brooks Range which is a favored track for heavy precipitation over
the interior especially southwest and west facing terrain. Lows
continue to move over the Brooks Range and interior through the
weekend.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch for AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ216.
&&

$$

CCC JUL 16



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