Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 271144
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
344 AM AKDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...Run to run continues to be very good for the short term
and model solutions are in excellent agreement out to around 78
hours before we start seeing diverging solutions concerning the
ridge over the west coast position and the evolution of a low near
yakutat. For the short term will stick with an equal blend for all
elements, including precipitation since there is not much if any
expected across the forecast area.

ALOFT...At 500 HPA...574 dam high has moved over Unalakleet as
expected and will slowly move north over the Seward peninsula by
Saturday morning, and over Kotzebue Sound by Sunday morning, then
continues northwest across the Chukchi Sea through Tuesday
morning. A 552 dam low will develop over the central Yukon
territory Saturday and move south over Yakutat by Sunday morning,
then moves west to Bristol Bay by Tuesday morning before merging
with a low over the western Aleutians. At 850 HPA...Zero isotherm
lies from Old Crow Yukon to Anaktuvuk Pass to Point Lay this
morning and will rotate a bit to lie from Dawson Yukon to Sag to
Wainwright by Saturday morning. By Sunday morning it will lie from
Dawson Yukon to Central to Atigun Pass and north into the Arctic.
Temperatures over the west coast rise to around 10 celsius by
Saturday afternoon with temperatures around 5 celsius above in the
central and eastern interior. Temperatures will continue to slowly
rise a couple more degrees through at least the middle of next
week.

SURFACE...Stationary front continues to lie from Dawson Yukon to
Anaktuvuk Pass to Wrangel Island this morning and will be squeezed
out today as a 1027 mb center over the west coast merges with
the 1030 mb center over the arctic with ridging extending
southwest over the eastern Bering Sea. A trough of low pressure
will develop west over the Gulf of Alaska coast with a 1014 mb low
developing over cook inlet Sunday and moving west across the
southwest Mainland through Monday before merging with a low over
the western aleutians.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...So not a lot of IFR conditions on
the GOES Probability products this morning at 27/0800Z, but there is
quite a bit of MVFR over the coast or just hanging offshore. Will
maintain the easterly flow at the surface and in the lower levels
from Barrow east with southeast to southwest flow west of Barrow.
Winds will generally be less than 15 mph. Temperatures have
already started warming and that trend will continue through the
weekend for most areas. With more open leads showing up in the
icepack nearshore, areas of fog and sea smoke can develop rapidly
and this will contribute to the low stratus ceilings and poor
visibility developing along the coast.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...West side of the ridge is pretty
dirty this morning and clouds are swirling around the center over
the eastern Bering Sea and coastal area, expect the clouds to
start dissipating as subsidence increases over the area. Inland
areas are mostly clear and they will remain that way. Some patchy
fog this morning, most likely along the rivers. Winds generally
light and variable. Temperatures on the rise and will continue to
rise through the weekend. Warmest temperatures will of course be
inland where upper 70s are expected Saturday and Sunday, while
temperatures in Norton Sound will be near 70, and Kotzebue Sound
will see temperatures near 60.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...Clouds clearing through the day
except near the stationary front which will continue to be mostly
cloudy. Expect a few lingering showers with the stationary front
today. Temperatures on the rise and highs will be around 70 in
most areas this weekend. On Saturday as the upper level low
develops over the Yukon and drops south, so expect some showers
and possibly a thunderstorm over the southeast interior south of
Chicken. Winds generally light and variable though the weekend,
the exception will be north winds through Alaska range passes
gusting to 25 mph.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Ridging building over the area, so not much chance
of thunderstorm activity except on Sunday when a few strikes will
be possible over the southeast interior. Warmer and drier
conditions through the weekend, but winds will generally be light.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...No issues currently, but the warmer temperatures over
the west coast and western arctic and Brooks range could lead to
increased runoff next week due to snowmelt.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&

$$

SDB MAY 16


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