Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 310401
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1201 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

EARLIER MENTIONED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DECREASING SOMEWHAT IN
COVERAGE... THOUGH NOT IN INTENSITY...AS THEY CROSS NW LOWER MI.
THESE BROUGHT RAIN TO FRANKFORT EARLIER...AND ARE POISED TO DO THE
SAME TO CAD SHORTLY. THESE MAY EVEN CLIP PARTS OF GLADWIN CO IF
THEY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH.

A LARGER AREA OF (SLOWLY DECAYING) SHRA/TSRA ARE SEEN OVER WESTERN
SUPERIOR...MOVING SE-WARD FROM ISLE ROYALE. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION SEEN BEHIND THAT...JUST NORTH OF MN. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A
REASONABLY DEFINED SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO FAR WESTERN ONTARIO...
HELPING THIS ACTIVITY ALONG. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL REACH WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT...AND COULD HELP SHRA ACTIVITY REACH
EASTERN UPPER MI JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. HAVE THUS ADDED A CHANCE OF
VERY LATE-NIGHT SHRA TO EASTERN UPPER.

SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER...BOTH TO THE AREA OF CLOUDS/SHRA
IN NW LOWER...BUT ALSO NOTING THAT IS ESSENTIALLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE.
HOWEVER...A MID CLOUD DECK WILL EXPAND INTO EASTERN UPPER OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 851 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

SHOWERS ORIGINATING OVER NORTHERN WI HAVE MADE IT SLIGHTLY MORE
THAN HALF WAY ACROSS LAKE MI...AND ARE HOLDING TOGETHER TO THIS
POINT. HAVE ADDED SCT SHRA NEAR AND W OF M-37.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

IMPACT WEATHER: ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

AFTERNOON ANALYSIS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY AND A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RESULTING IN GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS
ARE BLOWING STABLE MARINE AIR IN DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES...AND
WERE PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF NW LOWER. COVERAGE OF
CUMULUS CLOUDS INCREASES HEADING NORTH WHERE DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESIDES...AND TO A DEGREE WHERE IT GETS STUCK UNDER AN
EARLIER INVERSION OVER EASTERN UPPER. FURTHER UPSTREAM...SATELLITE
AND REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. THIS FORCING/COOLING
ALOFT WAS WORKING ON AN AXIS OF RELATIVELY HIGHER THETA-E AIR THAT
STRETCHES DOWN THROUGH THE NE HALF OF WISCONSIN (SEE CUMULUS ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE). A FEW STORMS HAVE FIRED IN THE ARROWHEAD AND
WERE TRACKING ACROSS FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE SHOWERS WERE
NOT SEEN YET IN THE CU FIELD ACROSS WISCONSIN. TEMP/DEW POINTS
RESULTING IN HUMIDITIES HEADING INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE 20S FOR
SEVERAL AREAS...PRIMARILY IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS ACROSS NE LOWER. WITH
RECENT DRY WEATHER AND GROUND...IT A TINDER BOX OUT THERE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THERE`S NOT MUCH GOING TO HAPPEN WITH THE WEATHER...BUT FOR A
FORECASTER...THERE`S STILL A LOT TO THINK ABOUT. WE DO HAVE A THREAT
FOR A ROGUE RAIN SHOWER IN SPOTS. THE SHORTWAVE AND COOLING ALOFT
SPREADS IN OVER NRN MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
BREAKS DOWN ANY LINGERING INVERSION/CAP. WE STILL MORE THAN LIKELY
DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO FIRE ANYTHING OFF. THE FEW
SHOWERS THAT IGNITE ACROSS WISCONSIN...IN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT...WOULD
TRACK TOWARD NW LOWER THIS EVENING-MIDNIGHT. SURE...THE WAVE BRINGS
STEEPER LAPSE RATES...BUT FORCING IS WEAK...AND ANY SHOWERS WILL
HAVE A STRONG DIURNAL COMPONENT. BELIEVE ANY SHOWERS WILL DIE OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN BEFORE REACHING NW LOWER.

A SECOND WAVE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NRN MANITOBA. THIS IS A VERY SIMILAR
SITUATION...TIED MORE SO TO DIURNAL PROCESSES...AND DESPITE A BIT
STRONGER OVERALL -DIVQ...GONNA STILL BELIEVE IT POSES LITTLE ENOUGH
THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO BE PUT IN THE FORECAST (WHICH WOULD BE MORE
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/STRAITS OVERNIGHT).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO END THE WORK
WEEK.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: A RATHER ENERGETIC...SHORT
WAVE FILLED FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN LYING ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF MATURE HUDSON BAY
GYRE. WHILE IT SOUNDS LIKE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINS...COMPLETE REMOVAL OF ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE SURE SAYS
OTHERWISE. SURE...PASSING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND SOME SOLAR DRIVEN
INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT
SIMPLY SEEING NO INDICATION FOR ANY WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN THAT IS
SO INCREASINGLY DESPERATELY NEEDED.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER PARAMETERS AGAIN FRIDAY. MULTIPLE PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWER
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO NEED LOOKING INTO.

DETAILS: WHILE WAVES ARE MANY...AND REASONABLY WELL ORGANIZED AT
THAT...THEIR ATTENDANT MOISTURE FIELDS ARE ANYTHING BUT. THROW IN
RECENT DRY PATTERN AND OVERHEAD PLACEMENT OF ELONGATED AND
PERSISTENT UPPER JET CORE (SIMPLY NOT IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
ANY DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT) SURE GIVES ONE PLENTY OF PAUSE WITH
REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES HEADING INTO AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH
THAT SAID...PLENTY OF GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR PERIODIC SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT RIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY WHEN PASSING
WAVES INTERACT WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY. JUST NOT BUYING ON
ALL THEIR POTENTIAL...AND WILL REMAIN DELIBERATE ON EXACT POP
PLACEMENT. "BEST" SUPPORT WILL LAY OUT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
AND POINTS NORTH...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH HINTS OF LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN BACKGROUND WEST WIND REGIME...MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH
TO KICK OFF SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FURTHER
SOUTH...JUST NOT SEEING THE MOISTURE NOR DYNAMICS TO FEEL
COMFORTABLE INCLUDING LIMITED RAIN MENTION (GUIDANCE DEW POINTS
SIMPLY RUNNING TOO HIGH IN AN INCREASINGLY DRY SURFACE ENVIRONMENT).
NOT SAYING THERE COULDN`T BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO...BUT REALLY
PREFER TO LEAVE THIS MORE OF A NEAR TERM ISSUE. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

GUSTY WEST WINDS...MILD TEMPERATURES...AND REDUCED RH VALUES
(ALTHOUGH REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS) WILL PRODUCE MORE
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY
SINCE THE WEEKEND...WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE EAST
TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LVL TEMPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER PATTERN WILL FALL FROM AROUND 12C ACRS
NRN MI MONDAY TO 6C BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE AFTN HIGH
TEMPS WILL FALL FROM SEASONAL READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S MONDAY TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S THURSDAY. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NRN MI MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A SFC
BOUNDARY SWEEPS OVER THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR.

W TO NW LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE...BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON
BAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID MS VALLEY. VARIOUS DISTURBANCES
MOVING THRU THE REGION ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY
TO OUR W/NW. THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIELD US FROM SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY. AN OUTSIDE CHANCE SOME SHRA WILL GRAZE BY PLN ON FRIDAY
WHILE IMPACTING EASTERN UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME PATCHY MID
CLOUDS PASSING THRU.

LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. W TO NW BREEZES RETURN ON FRIDAY...NOT AS
GUSTY AS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS COMMON ACROSS THE NEARSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL FALL BELOW CRITERIA BY THIS EVENING. MAY
NEED TO EXTEND ADVISORIES INTO THE EVENING IN SOME SPOTS FOR
RESIDUAL CHOPPY WAVES...BUT ALSO FOR LOW END ADVISORY GUSTS IN
COASTAL CONVERGENCE REGION ALONG LAKE HURON FROM THE STRAITS TO
PRESQUE ISLE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT IDEA...AND WILL JUST WATCH
HOW THINGS PAN OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND AS OF NOW...NO ADVISORIES
ANTICIPATED OVER THAT TIME.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ016-
     019-021.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...SMD


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