Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 050357
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1057 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER SCORCHER OF A DAY WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 95 AND 100.
SOME CHANGES ON THE WAY HOWEVER AND YOU CAN SEE A LITTLE BIT OF
THAT IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF
CUMULUS DEVELOPING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
TOMORROW HAVING A BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. DECIDED TO KEEP THE 30 POP IN THERE WITH THE PWS
WEDNESDAY AROUND 1.75.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
APPROACH 2 INCHES...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME EXTRA LIFT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH. I DID INCH
THOSE POPS UP SLIGHTLY AND I THINK THEY WILL CONTINUE TO GO UP AS
WE GET TO THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL LAST WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE IMPULSE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH ALABAMA. THE MODELS SHOW A
SECONDARY UPPER IMPULSE TRACKING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS ALABAMA ON
FRIDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRIER WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTS SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
EXITING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DRIER AIR MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
US AND HIGHS BACK IN THE MID 90S. A LITTLE BIT OF SPREAD IN THE
MODELS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY TRYING TO TIME THE NEXT IMPULSE AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO INTENSIFY BACK TO THE WEST.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

06Z TERMINAL FORECAST WILL KEEP ALL SITES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
QUITE A DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT THIS WRITING...BUT SOME PLACES
ESPECIALLY SOUTH MAY DROP WITHIN A FEW DEGREES. BUT AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES REALLY MIXED OUT THIS AFTERNOON
AND WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE ONE
CHANGE THIS EVENING IS THAT WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS
WE SPEAK...SO WILL MONITOR THE DEW POINT TREND OVERNIGHT.

ADDED SOME CEILINGS BUT STILL VFR. SOME CUMULUS WITH A LAYER OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN SITES ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND CUMULUS SOUTH. AS THIS
MOISTURE INCREASES...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE. RAIN CHANCES ARE ONLY IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE AND
WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING JUST YET. BUT CERTAINLY...THE POTENTIAL
WILL BE FRO MORE COVECTION AROUND CENTRAL ALABAMA THAN WE HAVE
SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

A FEW IMPULSES ALOFT WILL DRIFT FROM WEST TO EAST NEAR NORTHERN
ALABAMA AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME CONVECTION AND CLOUDS
HANGING AROUND AFTER 00Z INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
THURSDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROF PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THE BETTER
RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTH ALABAMA BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     71  94  73  89  72 /  10  30  30  70  50
ANNISTON    71  94  72  89  72 /  10  30  20  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  74  95  74  90  74 /  10  30  30  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  73  96  74  92  74 /  10  30  30  50  40
CALERA      71  93  71  89  73 /  10  30  20  50  50
AUBURN      73  94  72  88  73 /  10  30  20  50  40
MONTGOMERY  73  96  75  92  75 /  10  30  20  50  40
TROY        73  95  73  91  73 /  10  40  20  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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