Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
000
FXUS64 KBMX 231735
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1235 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.UPDATE...
For 18Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight.

Rainfall has really increased right along the front as the the
airmass has remained fairly untapped in the west during the day.
Based on rainfall and current observations, the cold front is
right  along I-65 and will be pushing eastward through the rest
of the overnight period. May be right on the eastern edge of the
forecast area at daybreak so left categorical pops in through 10
am. Clouds will remain across the area as an upper low will swing
through during the day. Look for isolated to scattered rain
chances with the upper low through the afternoon. May become more
drizzle by the late afternoon in the far northeast. Slow clearing
tonight will result in temperatures staying in the upper 40s to
low 50s.

16

.LONG TERM...
Tuesday through Monday.

The Eastern CONUS trough will continue to deepen on Tuesday as a
strong shortwave moves from the Northern Plains into the Ohio
Valley, setting up a strong cold advection regime. Afternoon
temperatures will struggle to rise above 60F in the North on
Wednesday, and morning lows on Wednesday and Thursday should reach
the upper 30s for low-lying and sheltered areas.

A transition to warmer conditions is expected on Thursday and
Friday as southerly flow develops in response to a large trough
forming in the western CONUS. Model spread has tightened a bit on
the arrival time of the next front, ranging from Friday afternoon
into early Saturday morning. The ECMWF continues to show a solid
band of rain along the front, while the GFS has been waffling
between dry and wet. The forecast will lean toward the wetter
solution with the highest rain chances centered on Saturday and
Saturday evening. If the wetter solution verifies, temperatures
may not rise out of the 40s/50s on Saturday behind the front. The
cold airmass should continue to pour into the region on Sunday
and Sunday night, potentially setting the stage for our first
frost and/or freeze of the season.

87/Grantham


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Surface cold front has pushed east into Georgia late this morning.
MVFR CIGs will persist at most sites through late afternoon
followed by gradual clearing overnight. Winds will vary from the
west to the northwest this afternoon then gradually decrease this
evening. Clear skies expected overnight though recent rainfall
with light winds may encourage localized reduction in visibility
at eastern sites, added 5SM at ASN/ANB at this time. VFR
conditions expected on Tuesday.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

An upper low will move through today behind a cold front. Light rain
showers may be possible across the north through the afternoon. Dry
through most of the week, with rain returning late Friday and into
next weekend. Relative humidity values should remain above critical
thresholds. There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     48  64  39  60  37 /  10   0   0   0   0
Anniston    47  66  39  61  37 /  10   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  50  66  40  61  41 /  10   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  50  68  40  63  40 /  10   0   0   0   0
Calera      50  67  40  62  40 /  10   0   0   0   0
Auburn      49  67  41  62  40 /  10   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  49  71  43  65  40 /  10   0   0   0   0
Troy        51  70  41  64  38 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.