Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 010455
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1155 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A DECAYING SURFACE BOUNDARY SANK SOUTHWARD EARLIER OVER
MISSISSIPPI AND ENHANCED SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
1/3 COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY HAS
REMAINED REASONABLE BUT UNDER SEVERE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE AS THE ACTIVITY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE STATE FOR
THE MOST PART...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AS THE EFFECTS FROM THAT EARLIER BOUNDARY
INTERACTION LESSEN. A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO OVERNIGHT
LOWS DOWNWARD ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/EAST WHERE THE DEW
POINTS WERE RUNNING LOWER.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS PROGRESSED FROM WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA
TO EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR BETWEEN MGM AND EET. THERE HAS BEEN A
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND NO THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AROUND AREA AIRPORTS BY 06Z. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN RAIN AREAS...SO SOME
LOWER CEILINGS OR VIS RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STILL
THINK THIS IS MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LESS THAN 10 KTS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. NO FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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