Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 300840
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
340 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight.

Surface high pressure is in control across Central Alabama this
AM. Beautiful dry fall weather will continue through tonight
with northwest flow across the area. The main low pressure will
continue to swirl over Indiana. We could see through today a
little wrap around cloudiness at times across the north and west
counties. However, any moisture will be shallow with no
precipitation expected. Temperatures today and tonight will be
similar to yesterday for the most part as ridging remains.

08

.LONG TERM...
Saturday through Thursday.

A warming trend is expected for the weekend and into the upcoming
week as a closed low over the Ohio Valley starts to retreat on
Saturday. Deep daytime mixing and good radiational cooling at
night will be the theme from day to day. With the ongoing drought
and minimal soil moisture, temperatures should exceed guidance by
2-5 degrees in the afternoons with overnight lows at or just below
guidance. This means we have likely not seen the last of the 90
degree readings, and some locations could reach this mark on
Monday and/or Tuesday. Overnight lows will gradually increase back
into upper 50s to low/mid 60s as the airmass modifies and gains
moisture content.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

With the cutoff low in place to our north another lobe of energy
will slide down into the northern half of the area by sunrise.
This may provide a lower level of clouds to develop north of the
area and advect into BHM...ASN...and ANB. So included a tempo bkn
MVFR ceiling from 12 to 16Z. Did not want to buy it at first but
every short range models is now picking up on this so confidence
has increased somewhat for these sites. TCL and EET may still see
some scattered MVFR conditions during this time, but confidence
is less. MGM and TOI should remain clear for the night. Winds
pick up again late morning, but should remain less than 10 KTS.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry weather is expected through the next 7 days. No fire weather
concerns are anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     74  51  82  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Anniston    74  52  83  53  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  76  54  83  57  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  78  53  84  55  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
Calera      76  54  83  57  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Auburn      76  53  83  57  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  79  55  86  58  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Troy        78  53  85  55  87 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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