Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 011730
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
SHORT TERM AND 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DEEPER MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING IN FROM
MISSISSIPPI SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALREADY FORMING AHEAD
OF IT ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR...WHICH INDICATES A PRESENCE OF
QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL...BUT SHOULD STAY
BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA DUE TO WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND
UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. EXACT TIMING AND IMPACTS ARE
UNCLEAR DUE TO THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY...SO AMENDMENTS
WILL BE NECESSARY. A LULL IN ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND
MVFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MOIST
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST ALABAMA ON LATER TODAY AND
STALL OUT ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OUT OF
THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  78  57  74  50 /  50  80  60  30  10
ANNISTON    65  79  60  75  52 /  50  80  60  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  65  78  60  75  54 /  50  80  50  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  66  77  59  75  53 /  50  80  50  30  10
CALERA      66  78  60  75  54 /  50  80  60  30  10
AUBURN      66  84  62  76  55 /  50  60  50  40  20
MONTGOMERY  68  84  64  79  56 /  50  60  60  40  20
TROY        67  84  64  78  56 /  40  50  50  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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