Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 230830
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
230 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Mon...

Hot and mainly dry again today, but the pattern is beginning to
look more active beginning this afternoon.

A vort max will move into the southwestern mountains this
afternoon, and proceeds eastward across the southern tier of the
region. This will bring a chance for showers and isolated thunder
to the Beartooth/Absaroka mountains in the afternoon and across
the region through the evening. Energy will have to contend with
dry conditions to support/maintain development, but cannot
completely discount mountain activity moving into plains. Given
the dry conditions there could be some fire weather concerns with
the lightning, but wind will be generally light, so have held off
on Red Flag Warning. A cold front will move through the region
Monday, shifting winds to the northwest. The timing on the front
will need to be watched closely, as could result in heightened
fire concerns if timing were to shift. FROPA will also bring
another chance for convection on Monday. There is a little more
instability and shear to work with, but timing continues to be a
bit of an issue, so pops kept low at this time. AAG

.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...


Extended forecast continues to advertise seasonal temperatures and
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. Upslope
easterly winds Tuesday into Wednesday will advect plains moisture
into the area in the lower levels while monsoonal moisture pushes
in from the south. This combination will be best on Wednesday for
the greatest precipitation potential in the extended period.
Highs will generally be in the 80s to lower 90s through the
period. Still looking like enough Shear and CAPE to support a few
strong storms Tuesday through Thursday. Chambers
&&

.AVIATION...


VFR conditions will prevail today into tonight. Isolated high
based thunderstorms south of a LVM to BIL to 4BQ line will produce
locally gusty winds. Areas of smoke will result in locally
visibility restrictions to 4SM through late morning. Chambers

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 095 066/090 063/084 063/088 062/090 063/091 063/093
    1/K 22/T    22/T    23/T    42/T    11/U    22/T
LVM 091 057/090 055/084 056/084 054/087 054/087 055/088
    2/T 22/T    23/T    33/T    42/T    12/T    22/T
HDN 097 063/092 062/087 064/090 063/091 063/094 064/095
    0/K 22/T    22/T    23/T    33/T    21/U    22/T
MLS 096 069/094 064/087 064/090 065/092 065/095 066/096
    0/K 11/U    21/B    12/T    22/T    21/U    21/U
4BQ 095 067/095 064/089 065/089 063/090 064/093 064/092
    0/K 21/U    22/T    23/T    23/T    21/U    22/T
BHK 092 065/095 060/086 060/086 061/090 063/091 062/092
    0/U 21/U    21/B    12/T    22/T    21/U    21/U
SHR 093 059/092 058/085 060/084 058/086 058/089 059/090
    0/K 22/T    23/T    34/T    43/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Red Flag Warning in effect from noon today to 9 PM MDT this
      evening FOR ZONE 117.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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