Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 010904
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
304 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING WITH IT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY WORK ITS
WAY INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN SUGGESTS
THAT EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION...THE LEFT EXIT REGION...FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.
MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO FORM OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA...HELPING TO CYCLE IN WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE FORCED EASTWARD WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...TIGHTENING UP
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CAUSING SOMEWHAT WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE ONSET OF THE COOLER AIR.

ALL THIS BEING SAID...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN
CONTINUING TO PLACE THE BULK OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST OF THE BYZ CWA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND POTENTIALLY
A WINTRY MIX IN THE FOOTHILL AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN FROM BILLINGS EASTWARD.

ONE LAST THING TO NOTE...THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA AND BIG HORN
FOOTHILLS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN A CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK BY SPC. WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE REGION
...DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR OVER THESE AREAS DUE TO SOME
OVERRUNNING OF COOLER AIR ABOVE WARMER SURFACE AIR. EVEN THOUGH
THE CHANCES ARE VERY SLIM...WILL NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER HUGGING THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SINGER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK WILL BE WEAK RIDGING OVER THE
AREA WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES PUSHING THROUGH. FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL CAUSE THE UPPER FLOW TO BECOME ZONAL. THIS
WILL BRING A FEW MOUNTAINS SHOWERS BUT THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH DOWN SLOPE WINDS CANCELING OUT THE WEAK LIFT BY THE WAVE.
700MB WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 45 KTS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL CAUSE GAP FLOW WINDS TO DEVELOP IN LIVINGSTON AND NEAR NYE.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BE NORTHWEST WHICH SHOULD KEEP WINDS
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE GUSTY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE PLAINS AND
MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE DOWN SLOPING AND WILL INHIBIT ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. GFS/ECMWF ARE PROGGING A DEEP UPPER LOW
TO PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA NEXT SATURDAY. THIS WILL BACK A
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. GFS IS MUCH DEEPER WITH A TROUGH THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRIES TO PUSH ARCTIC AIR
INTO SC/SE MT. ECMWF IS MUCH SHALLOWER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND
KEEPS A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST
TOWARD THE WARMER ECMWF WHICH HAS BETTER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER 50S. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FLIGHT TERMINALS TODAY. A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
BRING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. RICHMOND

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067 041/053 032/051 033/059 039/060 040/063 043/061
    0/B 35/W    41/B    01/B    11/B    11/B    11/B
LVM 066 038/047 028/047 029/051 037/056 038/060 039/057
    2/W 88/W    41/B    02/W    22/W    01/B    12/W
HDN 068 036/057 030/053 027/061 034/061 034/065 038/062
    0/B 24/W    31/B    01/B    11/B    11/B    11/B
MLS 064 038/055 031/047 028/058 036/058 034/060 039/058
    0/B 22/W    31/B    01/U    11/B    01/B    11/B
4BQ 070 040/058 031/048 028/058 037/060 036/062 039/060
    0/B 11/B    11/B    00/U    11/B    01/B    11/B
BHK 064 039/055 031/042 027/054 034/055 032/056 036/055
    0/B 01/N    12/J    01/U    11/B    01/B    11/B
SHR 071 036/059 028/050 023/061 030/061 032/065 036/062
    0/B 24/W    42/J    00/U    11/B    01/B    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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