Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 280251
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
851 PM MDT Sat May 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Unstable cyclonic flow continues over our region. Afternoon`s
round of isolated to scattered showers is on the decline, but
another shortwave in the flow aloft is moving through northern
Montana toward our CWA. This should result in an increase of
showers again as they spread north to south into the area during
the midnight-early morning hours. I also increased the areal
coverage going into Sunday as well based on newest model guidance.
BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon...

Heights will continue to build across the area. The main ridge
axis will remain west of the area, which will keep the area in
northwest flow. This will lead to scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms each day. Tomorrow afternoon a backdoor cold front
will push into eastern zones, mainly from Miles City and Broadus
east. This will see gustier winds move back in during the
afternoon tomorrow. Tempeatures through the period will continue
to be in the low to mid 70s. Reimer

.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...

Models continue to be in overall agreement through the first half
of next week, but diverge greatly for the rest of the extended.
The GFS has a much wetter solution while the ECMWF continues with
a drier one. Have continued to lean towards the drier ECMWF
solution.

With a ridge axis over the Northern Rockies, northwest flow will
be over the area into Wednesday. Weak energy streaming down the
right side of the ridge will produce some afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms. By Thursday, models prog a trough
moving onto the West Coast, causing the ridge axis to slide east,
allowing for more of a southwest flow to develop over the region.
As mentioned earlier, the GFS is much wetter with energy and
moisture producing showers and thunderstorms each day through the
end of next week. The ECMWF on the other hand has a stronger
ridge and weaker upper trough moving in from the West Coast.
Temperatures will gradually warm from the 70s into the 80s by the
latter half of next week. This extended period of warmth will
likely cause rises on main stem rivers with increased mid and high
level snowmelt. Will have to keep an eye on area waterways
through the end of next week. STP

&&

.AVIATION...

A weak disturbance sliding through the region continues to
produce showers this evening. Shower activity is expected to
decrease overnight, although a few showers will remain possible VC
KBIL and KMLS. Local MVFR conditions are possible in the heavier
showers, along with occasional mountain obscurations. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051/074 047/073 046/075 049/082 053/083 054/082 053/083
    23/T    21/U    10/U    11/U    11/B    12/T    22/T
LVM 043/069 040/071 039/075 043/080 045/079 045/077 044/078
    13/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 051/073 043/073 042/076 046/083 049/085 050/083 049/082
    23/T    11/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    12/T    22/T
MLS 052/074 044/071 042/073 047/081 052/083 054/081 053/083
    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T
4BQ 051/072 042/070 040/072 044/080 051/082 052/080 051/081
    22/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    22/T    22/T
BHK 046/070 039/066 037/068 040/076 047/079 049/076 049/079
    22/T    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/B    22/T
SHR 048/068 042/068 039/072 042/079 047/081 049/078 047/080
    23/T    21/U    01/U    01/U    11/B    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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