Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 192114
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
314 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

MINIMAL MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING SHORT TERM FORECAST...AS ALL
APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
QUIET AND WARM WEEKEND WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY.

RIDGING AND DRY AIR UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF SLIDES EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN/MONTANA BORDER ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS BACK TO THE REGION.
THE BEST ENERGY...HOWEVER...REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA AND THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO APPEAR QUITE DRY. SO EXPECT NO PRECIP OR
THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS FROM THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM MOVES PRETTY
QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO REGION AGAIN FOR
MONDAY.

EXPECT TO SEE INCREASED MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ESPECIALLY AT MID LEVEL ELEVATIONS. WE DO NOT EXPECT THERE
TO BE ANY FLOODING ISSUES...BUT STREAM FLOWS AND RIVER LEVELS WILL
BE ON THE RISE. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MODELS CONTINUING TO COME TOGETHER IN SHOWING COOLER AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK...BUT WITHOUT THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
EVENT THAT COULD HAVE HAD HYDROLOGIC IMPLICATIONS FOR OUR REGION.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH THERMAL LOW
IN SE MT UNDER AMPLIFIED SW FLOW ALOFT. HAVE TWEAKED UP TEMPS A
BIT MORE TO SHOW HIGHS FURTHER INTO THE 70S...QUITE LIKELY THE
WARMEST DAY YET OF 2014...AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME AREAS COULD
APPROACH 80F WITH ENOUGH MIXING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY TONGUE OF
700MB TEMPS TO +8C INTO SHERIDAN COUNTY. IN ADDITION...COMBINATION
OF MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF THE SE...HEIGHT FALLS AND
DIURNAL DESTABILIZING WILL RESULT IN A FAIR CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TUESDAY AFTN/EVNG. DO NOT SEE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR STORMS TO GET TOO STRONG...BUT IT DOES LOOK TO BE THE MOST
INTERESTING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WE HAVE SEEN YET THIS SPRING.

GREATEST CHANCE OF PCPN TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN OUR WEST ALONG
MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AS SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE SW. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL RAPIDLY IN OUR WEST BEHIND THE MID LEVEL
FRONT...SO EXPECT RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE BEARTOOTH
ABSAROKA AND CRAZY MTNS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. FOCUS OF PCPN WILL
SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS IN SHOWING A
TRANSITION TO STRONGER LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPING IN OUR WEST AS MID
LEVEL TROF LIFTS TO OUR NORTH. OVERALL THIS IS SHAPING UP TO BE A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS RATHER THAN A LONG DURATION PCPN EVENT.

NEXT TREND THAT EXISTS AMONG ALL MODELS TODAY IS FOR THE MID
LEVEL LOW TO SHIFT TO OUR NE INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PCPN AND COOLER AIR TO SLIDE INTO OUR EAST
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH AN OVERALL TREND TOWARD DRIER
SOLUTIONS AND A WEAKER TROWAL TODAY. HAVE BEGUN TO SCALE BACK POPS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
KEEPING HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN OUR EAST AND OVER THE MTNS WITH
DOWNSLOPING EXPECTED FOR OUR WESTERN LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN FACT...
BIGGEST IMPACT IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIOD MAY END UP BEING
WIND...IE SHOULD SEE FAIRLY STRONG W-NW WINDS THESE DAYS
ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK MIXING TIMES. HAVE ALSO TRENDED WIND SPEEDS
UP ON THESE DAYS. FOR THE MTNS...ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH SNOW MELT IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY ONCE WE GET PAST THE MILD TUESDAY.

OBVIOUSLY MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON THE MID WEEK
SYSTEM SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY THE END OF THE WEEK IS EVEN
LOWER. GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN ALL SUGGEST MORE PACIFIC ENERGY OF
SOME SORT BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY SO WILL KEEP WITH BROADBRUSHED NEAR
CLIMO POPS FOR THESE DAYS. CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP A POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY IN NW CANADA...AND THIS WOULD CERTAINLY KEEP OUR WEATHER
PATTERN ACTIVE WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS EXPECTED FOR THE
PAC NW AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...AFTER A VERY MILD TUESDAY WE WILL SEE
COOLER TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT PERHAPS NOT AS COOL AS
WE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. EXPECT SOME MODERATION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND HAVE STAYED NEAR CLIMATOLOGY ON THESE DAYS.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH 30 KTS AT KLVM THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A MAINLY DRY PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING A SHIFT OF WINDS FROM THE
S-SW TO W-NW...AND GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 043/067 039/069 044/074 046/057 037/057 035/060 039/062
    01/N    00/U    12/T    45/W    33/W    22/W    22/W
LVM 039/063 038/070 041/072 039/053 033/059 034/063 037/062
    11/U    00/B    26/T    76/W    33/W    22/W    22/W
HDN 038/069 035/070 039/077 041/058 034/055 032/060 035/063
    01/U    00/U    12/T    35/T    44/W    22/W    22/W
MLS 038/068 035/067 040/073 045/061 037/053 031/054 034/061
    01/N    00/U    01/B    35/T    34/W    31/B    22/W
4BQ 039/070 035/069 042/077 045/062 034/054 031/056 033/063
    01/N    00/U    02/T    26/T    44/W    31/B    22/W
BHK 036/067 034/065 039/069 046/063 036/050 028/051 030/057
    01/N    00/U    00/N    35/T    34/W    31/E    22/W
SHR 038/067 035/069 039/077 043/058 037/054 032/060 036/066
    01/U    00/U    02/T    26/T    43/W    22/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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