Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 271707
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
107 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017
A frontal boundary approaching from the west today will provide a
chance of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, a
few possibly severe. Fair and warm Friday through Sunday. A front
will provide a good chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday.
Generally fair with seasonal temperatures expected Tuesday and
Wednesday. Another significant weather system will affect the
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper ridge will shift to our east. Upper trough over the Central
CONUS. Main upper energy emerging from the base of the trough will
shift NE into the Midwest/Great Lakes region, remaining mainly to
our north. Surface front will approach from the west. Increasing SW
flow ahead of the front with breezy conditions possible. Indications
are that wind gusts will remain below lake wind advisory criteria.
The SW flow ahead of the front will provide warm temps and
increasing moisture. Associated batch of showers and thunderstorms
expected to approach the CSRA/NW Piedmont this afternoon and early
evening then gradually weaken late this evening and early tonight as
the activity shifts farther east, as main upper energy remains to
our north and with loss of heating. However, indications of moderate
instability and shear provide a threat that a few of the storms
could reach severe limits. At 100 pm SPC has put the western
Midlands and CSRA in a slight risk....Marginal to the east. The
limiting factor may be the instability and mid level cap. Hi-
Res models indicate convection strong in the west early then
diminishing as it pushes to the east.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Upper high will build off the SE coast, while upper trough deepens
into a closed low well to our west, providing generally fair weather
and warm temps. Increasing low level moisture combined with the warm
temps may provide a slight chance of diurnal convection Sat/Sun.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/EC continue to appear in good agreement with overall pattern.
Upper low to shift NE from the southern Plains into the upper
Midwest Monday. A front and associated band of convection will shift
east into our region Monday/Mon nt. Front appears will shift
offshore Tue, possibly returning as a warm front late Wed ahead of
the next approaching upper trough and cold front, that both
models indicate could affect our region by Thu. Generally
accepted guidance blend thru the period.
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Generally expect VFR conditions through except possible MVFR
cigs moving into the CSRA 14z-17z time frame.
Moisture will be on the increase today with strengthening
southerly flow between offshore high pressure and an
approaching weak cold front. HRRR suggesting stratocumulus will
move into the CSRA around 14z-17z. The NAM Bufkit momentum
transfer tool indicated gusts 20 to 25 knots during the
afternoon. Lingering mid-level capping as indicated by the
models may help limit thunderstorm coverage as front pushes into
the region. However think some showers will reach terminals
around 00z so included VCSH at 23z AGS/DNL and 00z CAE/CUB.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Widespread IFR stratus and fog
associated with the remnants of a front may occur during the
early morning hours Friday and Saturday. Widespread IFR stratus
may occur mainly during the early morning hours Sunday with
increased moisture ahead of a cold front. Gusty winds and
restrictions in thunderstorms may be an issue with the front