Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 011847
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
247 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL HAVE STRATUS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. HEATING AND
MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FOG BY 900 AM. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING IN THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THE NAM
ESPECIALLY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...CONVERGENCE INTO THE LEE-SIDE
TROUGH...AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
BUT THERE IS MORE THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COVERAGE. THE
SPC WRF SHOWS SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOME
WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS MOS
INDICATE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE UPPER-
LEVEL FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG ON THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. ALSO...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SLOW LIMITING
COVERAGE BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING. WE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. THE SLOW STORM MOTION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES
SHOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY. THE NAM HAS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -7. THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AS WELL. WE FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE
RECENT COOL BIAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECT WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING TO REMAIN IN THE AREA...SOMEWHERE ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT REGION. STRONG HEATING ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW AND WEAK SURFACE SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD HELP INITIATE
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. THE NAM
AND GFS MOS HAVE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT AND
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. IT WILL REMAIN HOT. LEANED JUST
ABOVE THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
VERIFICATION. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE IN
THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD BY
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUING AND ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BY LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS WESTWARD BY THE WEEKEND. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL STAY WITH THIS CURRENT TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS REMAINS HIGH AS MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS
BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. IFR FOG ALREADY OCCURRING AT
AGS. FOG THREAT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MINIMIZED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL
PARAMETERS CONSIDERED HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS AND POSSIBLY OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z.
FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 17Z ONWARD REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUST A NOTE...THE RECORD HIGH FOR COLUMBIA TOMORROW SEPTEMBER 2ND
IS 98 DEGREES SET IN 1944. THE RECORD HIGH FOR AUGUSTA IS 101 SET
IN IN 1957. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR COLUMBIA IS 97 DEGREES AND
FOR AUGUSTA IS 98 DEGREES. COULD VERY WELL BE NEAR THE RECORD AT
COLUMBIA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







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