Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 312140
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
540 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MARCH
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BAND CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
NEWBERRY THROUGH CHERAW AND MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND 20 KNOTS.
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH THIS LINE WITH
MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL AND A
FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OVERNIGHT AS PWAT
VALUES REMAIN AT 2 INCHES OR GREATER AND A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH THE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BEGIN TO
DIG ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PWAT VALUES AND SLOW STORM MOTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FORECAST TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERALLY
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED NORTHEAST OF AGS/DNL/OGB...BUT ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO AFFECT CAE/CUB CURRENTLY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES THROUGH
SUNSET AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. HAVE
INDICATED TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS AT
CAE/CUB. MORE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND COVERAGE AT OTHER SITES SO
HAVE GONE WITH VCSH AND WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED. MOIST EAST FLOW
FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL DEPEND ON WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSSING
THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST MODELS INDICATING IFR/MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 01/05Z. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FROM 01/05Z TO 01/14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







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