Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KCAE 302127
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
527 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING WILL BUILD EAST AND BE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE MID TO
LATE WEEK WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE
MOVING OUT TO SEA AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY BUILDS EAST INTO OUR AREA. DOWNSLOPE FLOW BRINGING
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR SKIES.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR ALOFT WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING IS EXPECTED
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN
STATES...RESULTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. FRONT HAS SOME UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO RIDGE SOUTH OF
THE AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT SO TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 70S. MOS POPS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE CSRA REGION
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MODERATE AHEAD
OF FRONT. SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT. EAST FLOW MAY DEVELOP AND SOME CLOUDS MAY
ADVECT INLAND. GUIDANCE MAY BE A TAD WARM DUE TO EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST SHOULD CIRCULATE
MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THIS
MOISTURE ALONG WITH APPROACH OF WARM FRONT/ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUPPORTS SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS INDICATED GREATER MOISTURE
COMPARED TO THE GFS. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS...NAM
MODEL MOST UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA.

THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH OF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LIFTING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LESS
OF A SHOWER CHANCE.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER CHANCE MAY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO HELP CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE INDICATING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
DRYING SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT WITH A DRY PATTERN/COOLER BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TO CONTINUE
THIS EVENING.

WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. ON TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.