Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 040014
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
814 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS CURRENTLY SHOW NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
CWA AS AREA REMAINS RATHER STABLE FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. THE
LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SCATTERED COVERAGE. WE HAVE
FORECASTED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS TONIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...MAIN
TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE AREA WITH A SOUTHWEST
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW S/W ACTIVITY MOVING
CLOSER TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO
BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
GUIDANCE/MODEL POPS RATHER LOW ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. BIG DISCREPANCIES IN TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE WARMER NAM NUMBERS BASED ON
LOW CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AND LESS CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO
GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH SOME
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND CONVECTION.

ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED FROM EARLIER STORMS AND RADAR IS
GENERALLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS. THE UPPER
PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR TO PAST DAYS AS WE ARE LOCATED ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
NAM/HRRR SHOWING POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
AL/GA AND LIFTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO
HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF SHOWERS STARTED AT 05Z AGS/DNL AND 08Z
CAE/CUB BUT WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED...SUPPORTED BY VFR FORECASTS
FROM MOS GUIDANCE. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID MORNING FROM THE
WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED STORMS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR
FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$


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