Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 311604
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1204 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016
The remnants of Bonnie will meander just off the coast today then
slowly to the northeast over the next few days. This will keep
plenty of moisture across the area along with chances of mainly
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Showers and
thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the weekend as a
frontal boundary stalls over the region.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Remains of Bonnie currently just southeast of the Myrtle Beach
area continue to move slowly northeastward with clouds and showers
remaining over the eastern Midlands through the coast. Current
visible satellite imagery shows cumulus developing across the
forecast area with most of the cloudiness in the eastern Midlands
and Pee Dee associated with moisture from Bonnie. Expect cumulus
to continue developing through the afternoon hours with scattered
showers and thunderstorms developing...mainly associated with
moisture from Bonnie. Coverage across the central and western
Midlands will be less as some drier air aloft and weak subsidence
will slightly suppress convection...however with strong heating
expect a few cells to develop. With sunset convection will
diminish with clouds lingering across the eastern Midlands and Pee
Dee. Temperatures this afternoon will range from the lower 80s in
the eastern Midlands and Pee Dee to near 90 in the CSRA...lows
tonight will be in the upper 60s to near 70.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The remnants of Bonnie will linger near the southeast coast of NC
Wednesday with upper level heights slightly increasing over our
area. The air mass is forecast to remain moist with PWAT at or
above 1.50 inches. Should see weak to moderate instability develop
with afternoon heating. Have continued chance pops for mainly
diurnal convection. Still expect afternoon highs around 90 with
nighttime lows near 70.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper level ridging over the southeastern states on Thursday will
will slip southeast Sunday as the upper pattern transitions to a
trough over the eastern states for early next week. A frontal
boundary is expected to linger in the area through the weekend in
to early next week. Kept a chance of showers and thunderstorms
each day. Still expect daytime highs around 90 with nighttime lows
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions through the early morning hours...then
Satellite imagery shows remains of Bonnie very slowly moving
northeastward offshore of the MYR area with cumulus developing
across the region. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop through the early evening hours...however potential for
impacts at any taf site remain too low to include in tafs.
Convection will diminish with sunset shifting the concern to fog
and stratus development overnight. With Bonnie expected to move
very little conditions will be very similar to last night...as
such have included mention of fog and stratus at all taf sites
from 01/07z through the end of the period. Winds through the
period will be northerly at 7 knots or less.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Late night/early morning restrictions
possible each morning. Low confidence in restrictions in afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms through Thursday...with
increasing chances Friday and Saturday.