Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 240655
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
255 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE MIDWEST
NEXT WEEK...POTENTIALLY BRINGING WET WEATHER TO PENNSYLVANIA
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY AM IR IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA.
DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DWPTS...AN ACTIVE NW WIND WILL KEEP
TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAST ACROSS EASTERN PA. THE COLDEST TEMPS
BY FAR THIS MORNING WILL BE IN THE VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES...WHERE
APPROACH OF SFC HIGH MAY ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME CALM AND TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE LOW 20S. WHILE A TOUCH OF FROST CAN/T BE RULED OUT
IN A FEW SPOTS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS TECHNICALLY BEGUN...THINKING IS THAT THE WIND WILL KEEP
FROST AT BAY IN MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WAA ALOFT COULD SPREAD SOME CIRRUS INTO THE NW MTNS EARLY TODAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS SFC RIDGE AND ASSOC
DRY AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENT OF
CONCERN TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE WIND. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND
EXPECTED GUSTY WIND...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
EASTERN PA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS AOA 20 MPH ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES...WITH LIGHTER WINDS FURTHER WEST.

THE STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER QUICKLY FROM
THE CHILLY MORNING. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE
MID AND UPPER 50S OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE L60S IN THE
VALLEYS.

INCREASING MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE MISS VALLEY. HAVE REMOVED MENTION
OF SHRA TONIGHT...AS ALL 00Z GUIDANCE KEEPS LG SCALE FORCING ASSOC
W/SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE AREA. GEFS OUTPUT SUPPORTS THIS IDEA OF A
DRY FCST OVERNIGHT WITH NO PRECIP INDICATED IN THE PLUMES THRU
12Z. RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM A LIGHT WIND AND STILL RELATIVELY
DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR LATE APRIL WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE U20S IN THE COOL SPOTS OF THE N MTNS...TO THE
U30S ACROSS THE LAURELS AND SC MTNS.

POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS/SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHC OF SHRA TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HAVE RAMPED POPS UPWARD TO NEAR 100 PCT ACROSS
THE W MTNS AND S TIER COUNTIES BASED ON 00Z GEFS AND OPER MDL
RUNS. ALTHOUGH WARM FRONT SHOULD REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE
MTNS...THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT A TSRA ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING FRI NIGHT AS OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES EAST
OF THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE
REGION SAT...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A SHRA IN SPOTS.

ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING OMEGA BLOCK SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH UPPER LOWS OVR THE PLAINS AND EAST OF NEW ENG...WHILE PA IS IN
A REGION OF RIDGING/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN BETWEEN. HOWEVER...OUR
DRY WX IS LIKELY TO COME TO AN END LATER NEXT WEEK...WHEN BULK OF
MDL DATA DRAWS UPPER LOW EASTWARD TOWARD PA. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO DRAW A PLUME GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD TOWARD PA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE BEGUN TO
RAMP UP POPS TUE INTO WED...WHEN THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE IS LIKELY
TO OVERRUN WARM FRONT SOUTH OF PA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION HAS PRODUCED AN EXTENSIVE
STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR AND SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND MIX OUT
SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO
BE VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT BFD/JST TO IMPROVE
SLOWEST.

THE WIND HAS BEEN GUSTING 20-30KT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY WILL BE NEARLY PERFECT WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE BUT WITH A
LINGERING GUSTY WIND IN THE 15-20KT RANGE OVER EASTERN AREAS. THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.

SUN-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE CWA FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WIND GUSTS
WILL BE MODERATELY STRONG IN THIS REGION AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE
AND RH/S WILL EASILY MEET CRITERIA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR PAZ042-051>053-057>059-065-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
FIRE WEATHER...FITZGERALD



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