Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FXUS61 KCTP 280546
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
146 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT SLOWLY
SAGS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INCREASE.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
PESKY SHOWERS PERSIST OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THIS EVE...THOUGH
NOT AMOUNTING TO MUCH OVERALL. STILL EXPECT THESE TO PETER OUT
OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS LEAVING BEHIND A QUIET NIGHT.

AFTER A HIGH OF 84F...KBFD ALREADY DOWN TO 66F IN THE DRIER
AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS. A SLOWER RATE OF FALL SOUTH OF
I-80 WHERE DEWPOINTS HANGING IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F...WHICH
IS HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S LATE THIS EVENING.

AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...THE SUMMERY
DEWPOINTS AND STILL AIR WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM IN AT LEAST THE
VALLEYS OF THE N/C COS BUT ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTH - ESP WHERE ANY
RAIN HAD FALLEN EARLIER. MINS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S IN THE NRN
VALLEYS...AND SHOULD HIT THE CROSSOVER TEMPS IN ALMOST ALL
LOCATIONS AS EVEN THE SRN TIER SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HOTTER AND MORE HUMID AIR FOR TUESDAY AS LARGE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SW. MAXES WILL RUN NEAR 90F IN THE SOUTH WITH 588
THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS OF 18-20C. SOLID M80S ELSEWHERE. ONLY
THE ELEVATIONS OF THE LAURELS MAY STAY IN THE L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. AS MAIN LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.

DRY PERIOD LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST SUN INTO MON RE-ESTABLISHING
THE TROUGH. ECMWF/GFS STILL LOOK TO BE LATCHING ONTO AT LEAST A
WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON THAT FORECAST PERIOD. BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED IN THE NORTH AND WED-THU
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDWEEK...AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS THE WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOME DECOUPLES. EXPECT AS THE WINDS LIGHTEN...AND THE
TEMPERATURES DROP...LOWERING THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION...PATCHY
FOG/MIST AND LOW STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. PATCHY
FOG/MIST AS ALREADY FORMED AND MOVED OVER UNV..WITH LIFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LIKEWISE IFR AT LNS AND SEG HAS DEVELOPED. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH REDUCING CONDITIONS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z. SO WIDESPREAD IFR WITH LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL OCCUR IN DENSE FOG.

 THE REDUCING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH TEMPO GROUPS POSSIBLE AS THE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE BETWEEN 12Z TO 15Z.

AFTER THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTS AND
DISSIPATES AWAY TUES...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS AS UPSTREAM RIDGING GETS NEARER.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR.
THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR AM...SHRA/TSRA POSS NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/RXR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU



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