Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 280525
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
125 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...THEN
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR AT 05Z SHOWING A BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA LINED UP ALONG
LL JET/AXIS OF ANOMALOUS PWATS FROM CENTRAL OHIO INTO WESTERN NY.
BEST LG SCALE FORCING IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING W/PARENT SHORTWAVE AND LATEST HRRR/NAM SUPPORT THE IDEA OF
THIS BAND OF SHRA RAPIDLIY DIMINISHING BTWN 06Z-09Z AS IT MOVES
THRU NORTH CENTRAL PA. SFC COLD FRONT...LOCATED ON THE NORTH SHORE OF
LK ERIE AT 05Z...WILL PUSH INTO THE NW MTNS BTWN 10Z-12Z. THE
COOLER/DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WON/T ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO
AFFECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS...WHICH WILL REMAIN AT SUMMERLIKE LEVELS.
TEMPS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT FROM ARND 60F OVER THE NW MTNS...TO
THE M60S ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS SOUTHERN PA ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIR AND LESS
HUMID CONDS...AS NW FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT ADVECTS A LOWER PWAT AIR
MASS INTO PA. UNDER MSUNNY SKIES...ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS FROM THE U70S NW MTNS...TO THE M/U80S
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HUMIDITY THU/THU NIGHT...MED RANGE
GUIDANCE SIGNALS A RETURN TO SUMMERLIKE WX FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH
12Z GEFS SHOWING ANOMALOUS 500MB HGTS AND SFC PRES OFF THE E
COAST. DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW AN INCREASINGLY
HUMID/UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...WHICH MAY SUPPORT
SCT DIURNALLY- DRIVEN PM CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A BETTER CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA COMES LATE SATURDAY WITH APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. SOME
MDL TIMING ISSUES WITH HOW FAST COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY. HOWEVER...FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL FROM ALL MDL DATA
THAT THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF JUNE /MON AND TUE/ WILL BE COOL AND
PERHAPS SHOWERY...WITH FRONT STALLING OUT SOUTH OF PA AND
POTENTIAL OF OVERRUNNING RAIN/SHOWERS. HAVE DECREASED POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND INCREASED THEM DUE TO THE STREAMING OF
MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS THE
BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE HAVE
INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN GIVE WAY TO SOME FOG OVERNIGHT...ESP IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS AFTERNOON /MAINLY EAST/. AN AREA OF
MAINLY RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL WORK INTO THE NW MTNS
AND BRING RESTRICTIONS TO KBFD THROUGH 07Z...BUT SHOULD SEE A
NOTABLE WEAKENING TREND IN THIS ACTIVITY AS IT ERODES AWAY AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD. A FEW RENEGADE SHOWERS CAN/T BE RULED OUT
ELSEWHERE...BUT PROB TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.

AS SUNRISE APPROACHES...SHOULD SEE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOP
AGAIN. BUT THESE WILL LIFT FAIRLY QUICKLY ON THU AS WEAK COOL
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS CWA. VFR DAY IN STORE FOR MOST LOCALES
THU...BUT SCT TSTMS STILL POSS IN THE LOWER SUSQ...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS EARLY. ISOLD AFTERNOON TSTMS.

SAT...PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS EARLY. SCT-NMRS AFTERNOON TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.

SUN...MVFR CIGS POSS NW. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR IN SCT SHOWERS.

MON...LOW CIGS LIKELY WITH CHANCE SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/TYBURSKI
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...RXR


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