Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 281006
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
306 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER ABNORMALLY WARM DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS MUSH AS 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY DROP CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURNING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE UNUSUALLY WARM
WEATHER IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AND WILL
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO PUSH EAST TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 15
DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE IN MOST AREAS...THOUGH AS MUCH AS 20
DEGREES WARMER IN SOME SPOTS. HAVE AGAIN GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR TODAY PER RECENT TRENDS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES EAST TONIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES OVER
ARIZONA TO BEGIN TO DECREASE WHILE WIND SPEEDS INCREASE. EXPECT
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS WITH WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...FORECAST MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF THE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO BRING
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHWEST NEXT WEEK AND HAVE ALSO TRENDED TOWARD
LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKELY THAT A PACIFIC
MOISTURE PLUME WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AHEAD
OF A WEAKENING CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA. THE MAIN CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST WERE TO TRIM BACK PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY AS
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCLEAR...BUT
CURRENT TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST MORE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY VERSUS
A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT.

THE WEAKENING TROUGH PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH WITH VERY LITTLE
IMPACT ON ARIZONA. A RELATIVELY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO
DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MODELS SUGGESTING THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST BEYOND
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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