Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 031615
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
915 AM MST MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND STABLE AIR HAS ARRIVED ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. STARTING THURSDAY... MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO UPDATES.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION 315 AM....MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE DOMINANT ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA AS DRY AIR HAS TAKEN OVER. THIS DRY WESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ANY CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS ALONG
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SUNNY SKIES AND
NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY ONWARD...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A MOISTURE
SURGE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO AND A WEST COAST TROUGH.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA. AT THE MOMENT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
ACROSS NORTHERN AZ OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA 19Z-02Z
EAST OF A KPAN-K0V7 LINE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...41 / MOTTICE
AVIATION...MAS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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