Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 291653

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
953 AM MST FRI JUL 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect a cooling trend and increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms heading into the weekend. The best
chance for heavy rain and a few strong storms will be south of
Flagstaff today.


.UPDATE...High pressure is centered over southern NV/northwestern
AZ today and will keep a general northwesterly mid level flow over
Arizona. There is a significant moisture gradient in place between
Flagstaff and Phoenix this morning differing by at least 1 inch
of precipitable water. This moisture and instability south of the
Mogollon Rim combined with a northerly component in the mid level
flow will favor storms moving south of the Rim later this
afternoon and evening into Yavapai/Gila counties. Enough
instability is present in these areas to favor a few severe
storms with large hail and strong winds possible, as well as
local heavy rain with flash flooding also a possibility.


.PREV DISCUSSION /325 AM MST/...Significant storm activity
continues over the Gulf of California tonight. A surge is underway
in Yuma, with a steady seep of higher moisture values evident
across the remainder of southern Arizona and the Imperial Valley.
This was expected and this will pave the way for higher pops over
the weekend and into next week. Moisture will be drawn northward
each day, due to outflows and a trough passage well to our north
that will improve streamlines. Heights fall each day as well,
which will weaken the cap that has been in place for a few days.

Naturally, added moisture will lead to more storms, which will
lead to more cloud cover. Therefore, temperatures will begin to
decline today, with 5 to 10 degrees of cooling over the weekend.


.AVIATION...For the 18z Package...Look for mainly VFR conditions
over the next 24 hours. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the
higher terrain from the Grand Canyon and Flagstaff southeast to the
New Mexico border. Elsewhere...isolated storms. Showers and
thunderstorms will diminish after sunset. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.






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