Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 260332
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 PM MST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA. ELSEWHERE VERY COLD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES RETURN TO THE
NORTHLAND STARTING TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAYS SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED NORTHERN ARIZONA BUT THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS STILL IN CENTRAL UTAH. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST AZ TONIGHT UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MEASURES LIQUID PRECIP AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN LIGHT TODAY WITH SNOW RATIOS ABOUT 10:1. GRIDS AND TEXT
PRODUCTS WERE UPDATED EARLIER TO INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
NORTHEAST AZ OVERNIGHT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...247 PM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE STATE TODAY THE STATE TODAY HAS BROUGHT PERIODS OF
RAIN AND SNOW TO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM
CHINLE...TO WINSLOW...TO PAYSON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
TO THE SOUTHEAST EXITING THE REGION OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
LIGHT...WITH REPORTS BETWEEN A LIGHT DUSTING TO A HALF OF AN INCH
FOR LOCATIONS AT OR ABOVE 5300 FEET. A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW BY
TOMORROW MORNING IS POSSIBLE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. ON FRIDAY...LINGERING
INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GENERALLY CONFINED TO HIGH
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION
LEADING TO DRY WEATHER...AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH PASSING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SINGLE DIGIT LOWS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET ON SATURDAY MORNING.

MONDAY ONWARD...HIGH MODEL SPREAD EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED. IN
GENERAL...MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW NORTHERN ARIZONA COULD SEE A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WEST
COAST TROUGH/CLOSED LOW FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE PRESENT UNCERTAINTY...I DID NOT
MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED. STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH MVFR
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST OF A PAYSON-WINSLOW-KAYENTA LINE
OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. OVERALL
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE INTO FRIDAY...THOUGH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS DURING THE
24HR PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL / RR
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







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