Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 212248
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
348 PM MST THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS LOW WILL FILTER INTO
ARIZONA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL DOWN TURN IN STORM
ACTIVITY FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LOW CENTER HAS MOVED TO A POSITION OVER THE SE CALIFORNIA
DESERT CLOSE TO THE AZ BORDER...WHERE A GREAT DEAL OF INTENSE
CONVECTION CAN BE SEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CORE.
MEANWHILE...OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA...A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT AHEAD OF
THE EASTWARD MOVING LOW COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION NORTH OF A LINE
FROM PRESCOTT TO PAYSON TO SPRINGERVILLE. EXPECT THIS AREA OF RAIN
TO CONTINUE ITS NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CENTER AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE FORECAST AREA.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON
FRIDAY...LARGELY EXITING THE STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. A DECREASE
IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON THE LOW END FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...DECREASING
AFTER 08Z. EXPECT MVFR AND ISOLD IFR CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGER
STORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER AND NORTHEAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM IN NORTHEAST
ARIZONA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........AT
AVIATION.......BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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