Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 282247
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
345 PM PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN AND
IMPACT ARIZONA FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN DECREASING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE A
RELATIVELY WARM STORM WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 8000 FEET THROUGH
FRIDAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OFF THE BAJA COAST.

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUT ARIZONA IN A
WARM AND VERY WET AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WEAK LARGE SCALE
LIFT...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND WEAK OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS TO MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO START OUT THURSDAY
NIGHT AROUND 10000 FEET FROM SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY TO THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND ABOVE 8000 FEET ALONG THE UTAH BORDER. BY FRIDAY
EVENING...THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 7500 FEET FOR WESTERN
COCONINO/YAVAPAI COUNTY TO AROUND 8000 FEET ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BOARDER. THE SNOW LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 7000 FEET BY
SATURDAY EVENING WHEN MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLOWING DOWN.
SNOW LEVELS FOR THIS EVENT CONTINUE TO BE TRICKY...AND A CHANGE OF
JUST 500 FEET COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN OR ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR MANY POPULATION AREAS IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OR LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT COULD RANGE FROM 0.5
INCHES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS TO OVER 2.0 INCHES OVER FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS MEANS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ABOVE 8000-9000 FEET. A WINTER STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAIN AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER ARIZONA FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST...WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS AND WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS PATCHY FOG OVER VALLEY AREAS NEAR PAGE HAS
DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WATCH AZZ017 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF















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