Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 162247

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
329 PM MST Sat Dec 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS... On Sunday, a passing low pressure system will bring
cooler temperatures, along with chances for rain and snow showers
primarily along the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Dry
weather and a warming trend are forecast from Monday through
Wednesday. By Thursday, another low pressure system may impact the


Model solutions continue to shift concerning timing and location
of the upper level trough as it transitions inland from the
Pacific. Current solutions have the trough deepening into a closed
low well over the Baja Penisula. This is further south than
previous tracks, and compared to previous model solutions limits
the northern spread of moisture over the Mogollon Rim.

The timing of the system has also slowed down as the low becomes
closed off a little later in its track, limiting how much moisture
will fall over the Coconino and Yavapai counties, and focusing the
moisture plume closer to the Arizona - New Mexico state line.

As the low tracks further south over Sonora and into Southern
Arizona this will also allow temperatures to warm slightly more
during the day Sunday. This increasing snow level will also limit
some snowfall amounts as a rain snow mix becomes more likely.

Unfortunately these changes have combined to severely limit
snowfall amount across much of the area with Flagstaff and the
Western Mogollon Rim now looking at limited snow if any, and much
of the Eastern Mogollon Rim struggling to get 1 to 2 inches. The
White Mountain will still see the higher amounts from this storm,
but the higher elevations are expected to max out around 5 inches
of snowfall.

As the system exits the area on Monday zonal flow looks to become
established before the next system impacts the area Thursday.
Winds will increase on Wednesday ahead of the next trough, with
the details concerning this next event still highly uncertain due
to its distance in the long term. Interested parties should stay
current with the latest forecasts since this system has the
potential to impact travel and other outdoor activities through the
rest of next week.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect predominately VFR
conditions over the next 24 hours. Winds will be light and variable
overnight and variable at 5-10 kts Sunday. A slight chance of rain
and snow showers developing Sunday from KPRC to KFLG to KINW with
showers likely south of the Mogollon Rim and over the White
Mountains. MVFR to IFR conditions are possible around the
showers. Expect SCT low clouds and mid level ceilings. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...The cold front moving through Sunday will bring
light rain and snow showers to the area, mostly south of the
Mogollon Rim and over the White Mountains. Expect less than 0.20 in.
precipitation maximum. Temperatures will near normal through Monday
with skies clearing Sunday evening.

Tuesday through Thursday...Mostly sunny and warmer with temperatures
5-10 degrees above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, but dropping back
to normal Thursday with the next trough passing to the north.
Minimum RH values will be in the 20s. Winds will be light through
the period except Wednesday with south-southwest winds at 15 gusting
25 mph in the afternoon.






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