Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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063
FXUS63 KGID 081759
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1159 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOW GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT MOVING TO THE
SOUTH AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WINDS PICK UP
FOR AGAIN. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. WINDS AT 850MB ARE 45 TO 55 MPH DURING THE MORNING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS AT 850MB GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO BE DURING THE MORNING THEN
LET UP SLOWLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AROUND SUNSET THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MUCH MORE RAPIDLY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA SENDS A FEW WEAK WAVES
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL MOSTLY AMOUNT TO SOME CLOUDS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON AND OFF DURING THE DAY. AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER.

TONIGHT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FEW IN AND OUT CLOUDS FROM THE
LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH TRIES TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT THAN CURRENT
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.

WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST. AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
ESSENTIALLY DRY...BUT SMALL WAVES COULD GIVE US SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SOMETIME WITHIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR THIS TO HAPPEN WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A JET STREAK PASSES NEARBY...PROBABLY JUST TO
THE NORTHEAST. DRY MID-LEVELS COULD MEAN TROUBLE AS FAR AS FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL FOR THAT TIME PERIOD...BUT TOO EARLY TO TRY TO PIN
DOWN ANYTHING OTHER THAN FLURRIES FOR NOW. THERE SHOULD BE A
GENERALLY SLOW INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE LONG TERM
UNFOLDS AND THE UPPER RIDGE INCREASES ITS INFLUENCE. I DID BACK OFF
HIGHS UP TO 5 DEGREES FROM THE INITIALIZED SUPERBLEND FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...CONSIDERING OUR STUBBORN SNOW FIELD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR WEST AND A
SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST IS RESULTING IN VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
QUICKLY BEGIN TO DIE DOWN THIS EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY



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