Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 280542
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1242 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Upper air and satellite data showing generally zonal flow
remaining in place across the area today, with elongated high
pressure across the southwestern/south central CONUS. Been a dry
day, with some scattered light showers both off to the south and
to the northwest of the CWA. At the surface, the main frontal
boundary is well south of the CWA, draped from the TX panhandle
northeastward into the Midwest region. A ridge axis extends
southwest through NE from high pressure centered over the eastern
Dakotas/MN, keeping winds light, northeasterly for some and more
variable for others. Skies across northern portions of the area
have been mostly clear/partly cloudy, with some mid/upper level
cloud cover occasionally passing through, across the south, skies
have been partly/mostly cloudy, thanks to some lower/mid level CU
in addition to the higher level clouds. No big surprises with
temperatures this afternoon, of more note is the drier dewpoints
that have settled into the area, with dewpoints ranging from the
mid 50s to mid 60s (roughly 10 deg lower than yesterday).

Looking ahead to tonight through the daytime Friday,
precipitation- wise, the forecast remains dry. No significant
changes are expected in the upper level pattern, but it will turn
more northwesterly with time, as the ridge axis over the
Rockies/High Plains amplifies between one disturbance digging
south through the Great Lakes and another moving onto the west
coast. At the surface, the ridge axis currently across the area is
expected to sink south with time, more centered over the heart of
the CWA by sunrise Friday. This will bring a gradual switch in
winds, becoming more easterly, then southeasterly through the day
tomorrow as the axis pushes further south. Around daybreak
tomorrow, may be a few patches of fog around, with the lighter
winds expected and lows dropping to either side of 60 deg. Kept
the inherited mention going, but confidence in it occurring not
the highest, isn`t a lot of support from models/guidance. Highs
for tomorrow are forecast to top out in the lower/mid 80s, just a
touch below normal for this time of year (mid 80s to near 90).

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Confidence in the long term period, as far as precipitation goes,
is  pretty low. Friday night on through the upcoming weekend,
there`s really no notable change in the upper level pattern. Flow
across the area remains northwesterly with the main ridge axis
just off to our west. The same can be said about the sfc pattern,
not a lot of change. High pressure looks to remain centered over
the western Great Lakes through the period, keeping winds south-
southeasterly and on the lighter side (around 10 MPH). Continue to
carry PoPs over mainly the western half of the CWA, between
upslope flow developing activity off to our west/moving it east
and/or weak waves in the flow, can`t completely discount what the
model blend provided, but confidence in it isn`t great either.
There are plenty of details in the models yet to be ironed out. As
far as highs go Sat/Sun, still looking at highs just a touch
below normal, topping out generally in the mid 80s.

As we get into the next work week, models are in ok general
agreement, showing the upper level pattern becoming more
amplified, resulting in more northerly flow for our area, as the
main ridge axis retrogrades back over closer to the west coast.
Periodic precipitation chances remain in the forecast, but
confidence in the timing of any disturbances/PoPs is low. The
seasonal highs continue through mid-week, with highs in the mid-
upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Friday)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

For the most part we expect VFR conditions at KGRI and KEAR. The
one concern will center around the fairly small possibility of
seeing some fog a few hours either side of dawn, which may result
in a period of MVFR visibility. Otherwise, the wind should be
light and out of the east southeast and no precipitation is
expected.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...Wesely


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