Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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000
FXHW60 PHFO 281954
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES TO FORM ALONG MOST LEEWARD AREAS TODAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...WITH SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON KAUAI. LOCALLY
BREEZY TRADE WINDS AND TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWER PATTERN
WILL REBUILD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO A LOCALLY BREEZY...EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY NEAR SHELTERED
LEEWARD TERRAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING ABOUT 1300 MILES
NORTH OF THE STATE WOULD NORMALLY DRIVE STRONGER TRADE WINDS...BUT A
SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS PASSING NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE
ISLANDS HAS BEEN SLACKENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAUSING
THE WINDS TO BE WEAKER AND OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
AFTERNOON LEEWARD SEA BREEZES TO BE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS AND TO BE CONFINED NEAR LEEWARD TERRAIN.

MODEST SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES TODAY...WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER SOME
LEEWARD SECTIONS. THIS EFFECT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE...MAINLY KAUAI...WHERE A POCKET OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS PASSING THROUGH. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS PRODUCING A
WEAK INVERSION...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER ON
LEEWARD KAUAI AND POSSIBLY OAHU.

MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGHS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST MOVE
AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD...LEADING TO A RATHER STABLE TRADE WIND FLOW THAT WILL
CONFINE MOST SHOWERS TO WINDWARD SLOPES.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINT AT INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE ISLANDS AS THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E MOVE BY. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER DISSIPATES THIS SYSTEM FAR EAST
OF THE BIG ISLAND ON FRIDAY...BUT THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE TRADES AND POSSIBLY AFFECT THE STATE. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS...OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR GENERALLY WETTER TRADE WEATHER SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS RESULTING FROM A TROUGH
WEST OF THE STATE. DAYTIME SEA BREEZES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS
TODAY AND WILL BRING LEEWARD CLOUDS AND BRIEF MTN OBSC LATER
TODAY...THEN CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER MOST AREAS TODAY. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES
THROUGH THE DAY. BUOY 51003 SHOWED A BIG DROP IN SWELL ENERGY OF 15
SECONDS OR MORE OVERNIGHT...WHILE THERE WAS A SLIGHT INCREASE AT 14
SECONDS. THE BARBERS POINT BUOY HAS BEEN REGISTERING THE SWELL
AROUND 4 FT AT 14 SECONDS THIS MORNING...AND THIS SHOULD HOLD INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL DECLINE IS DUE LATER TODAY THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

WITH TRADE WINDS DUE TO BUILD ON WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI WILL
LIKELY BE POSTED SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. ONCE UP...THE ADVISORY SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TODAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES OF
ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...FOSTER










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