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000
FXUS64 KHUN 181926
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
226 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE OBS...AREA 88-DS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN...WAS MOVING
MAINLY NORTH-NORTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO MAINLY NORTH
GEORGIA. SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE
MOVING NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA. TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65 THROUGH THE EVENING DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
AREA OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL BE A TRICKY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT INVOLVING WHEN THE CLOUDS AND SYSTEM MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TRENDING THAT WE
HAVE GOING IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...BASED ALSO UPON SHORT TERM MODEL
TRENDS. WILL GO WITH CLEARING BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z FROM THE WEST
TO THE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN
MOVING THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST BY 00Z SUNDAY.
SINCE NORTHEAST ALABAMA WILL BE CLOSER TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CLOUD SHIELD ON SATURDAY...THERE MAY BE MORE OF PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THERE...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL BE MORE IN LINE WITH GFS GUIDANCE ON
SATURDAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO EASTER...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. TEMPS WILL FOR A CHANGE
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND GENERALLY ACCEPT THE MORE
OPTIMISTIC CLOUD AND TEMP FORECASTS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
MONDAY WILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON SUNDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH MONDAY AFTERNOON TSRA CHANCES FOR THE FORECAST AREA
AND WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING MOVING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z TUESDAY...WITH IMPROVING WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY LATER TUESDAY AND WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH MORE OF A ZONAL
MID TO UPPER FLOW IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
AND SHOULD BE NICE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THROUGH THURSDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...KEEPING IT NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF MODEL IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH PRECIP PROGGED TO MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE LACK OF MODEL CONSISTENCY...WILL NOT
INTRODUCE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR FRIDAY YET. WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1252 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. LEFT FOG OUT OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY THAT CLOUD COVER WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND BREEZY BY MORNING.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    49  76  50  79 /  20   0   0  10
SHOALS        49  77  51  80 /  10   0   0  10
VINEMONT      47  75  51  78 /  20   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  47  74  48  77 /  20   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   47  74  49  77 /  20   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    45  73  47  77 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

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AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.