Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 222000
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
300 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY START THIS MORNING...SUNNY SKIES AND
MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES NOTED AROUND THE
REGION THIS MORNING WERE 40 AT RUSSELLVILLE AND LYNCHBURG. HIGHS SO
FAR HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...WITH LIGHT NE WINDS.
ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN...UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING
CONTINUED ACROSS THE WEST COAST...RESULTING IN A SPLIT FLOW EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC WAS PRODUCING
TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A NORTHERLY FLOW FROM A MODERATING
HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE REGION HELPED CREATE THE CHILLY CONDITIONS
YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.

THE EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT `LIFTS`
NE TOWARD THE DAVIS STRAIT/GREENLAND...WHILE UPPER RIDGING FORMS OVER
THE BAHAMAS AND SE COAST. WHILE THIS OCCURS...THE UPPER BLOCK OVER
THE WEST SHOULD FINALLY BREAK DOWN...WITH ITS SOUTHERN LOW WEAKENING
AND MOVING FROM SOUTHERN CA/NV TO EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SUNDAY.
ENERGY UNDER THE CA LOW WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA...AND RETURN
RAIN CHANCES ON SUN. BEFOREHAND...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL END THE
WEEK. ANOTHER SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN AVERAGE NIGHT TEMPERATURE WISE IS
EXPECTED... WITH LOWS COOLING INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS. WINDS FOR END OF THE WEEK WILL BECOME SE ALONG WITH RETURN TO
SEASONABLE WARMTH...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S. NORMAL
LOW/HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE 83 AND 61.

THE SE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BRING DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN
AND GULF ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MOISTURE AND
GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING SUNDAY. WITH THIS ISSUANCE...KEPT RAIN CHANCE OVER OUR WESTERN
AREAS ON SUN...THEN ENDING IT IN THE EVENING. BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY...AS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE REALIZED. SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM
AND GFS DO NOT NECESSARILY NOTE HIGH VALUES THAT HINT AT SEVERE
WEATHER. BUT HIGH CAPE AND PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS (RISING INTO THE 1.6
- 1.8 INCH RANGE) MON INTO THU...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS APPEAR THE PRIMARY THREAT POSED BY THE STRONGER STORMS.

PROBABILITY OF PRECIP WISE...STAYED WITH HIGH CHANCE VALUES ON MON
(COULD GET NEAR LIKELY OVER NW AL). MAINTAINED LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
ON TUE/WED COINCIDING WITH HIGHER DAYTIME INSTABILITIES. RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ON THU/FRI AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REAMPLIFIES OFF OF
THE SE COAST.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1225 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO...WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. NORTHEAST
WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DID NOT
PUT ANY MENTION OF GUSTS IN THE TAFS DUE TO A LOW CONFIDENCE OF WHEN
THIS MIGHT OCCUR. BY SUNSET...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD BY SATURDAY AT AROUND 10 KTS.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    53  84  63  86 /   0   0  20  20
SHOALS        53  83  63  85 /   0   0  20  30
VINEMONT      52  81  62  83 /   0   0  20  20
FAYETTEVILLE  52  80  61  83 /   0   0  20  10
ALBERTVILLE   53  78  61  81 /   0   0  20  10
FORT PAYNE    51  83  59  82 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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