Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 081554 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
954 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...TO TWEAK CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND REMOVE RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS BROUGHT CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND VIRGA TO
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS FEATURE HAS PUSHED SE INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...MAINLY DUE TO MORNING SUNSHINE AND NEUTRAL ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT STILL NEAR MEMPHIS AREA.

DUE TO THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...REMOVING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING.
LOWERED CLOUD COVER SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER...THINK THAT A MOSTLY CLOUDY DECK WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
EVERYWHERE. THE QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY IN THE AFTERNOON WILL THE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOP AND IN WHAT FORM IT WILL START.

MOST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT FIELDS IN THE THAT
REGION OF THE SOUNDING SHOW MAINLY DOWNGLIDE THROUGH ~ 3 PM/4 PM.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE BETWEEN 850 MB AND 700 MB FOR SOME
VIRGA...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S AND DEWPOINTS DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER 20S TO UPPER TEENS...THINK THIS WILL BE TOO DRY TO
ALLOW IT TO REACH THE GROUND. BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM...TEMPERATURES
COULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NEAR AND NORTH OF THE TN RIVER.
IN THIS TIME FRAME...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS IN TN AND PUSHES INTO NW AL
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE IN
TIMING. SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER...WILL KEEP MAINLY ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN DUE TO WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 541 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OUT IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO LEAVING CLEAR SKIES UNTIL 15-16Z WHEN THE NEXT BAND
OF CLOUDS APPROACH. WINDS WILL GUST 15-20KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING AND FALL TO
AROUND 3KFT AFTER 00Z. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY...MIXING
WITH SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN TURN TO ALL SNOW AFTER SUNSET.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS BUT THE TERMINALS
COULD SEE OFF AND ON LIGHT SNOW ANY TIME AFTER 00Z. CANNOT PINPOINT
THE TIME FRAME FOR THESE SHOWERS SO WILL KEEP -SHSN IN THE PREVAILING
GROUP FROM 00-12Z AT THIS TIME. LESS THAN 1/2 INCH OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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