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000
FXUS64 KHUN 281113
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
513 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 244 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/
PESKY BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS COVERED AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A ELKMONT-
DECATUR-CULLMAN LINE. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE IN THIS
LAYER WILL ERODE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE, AND THIS IS REASONABLE
GIVEN SOLAR HEATING AND THE RIDGE AXIS/DRIER AIR SHIFT EAST THIS
MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KNOCK AT LEAST 3-5 DEGREES OFF OF
MAXES THAT WERE OBSERVED ON TUESDAY. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM NOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. TEMPS SHOULD STILL BOTTOM OUT BELOW FREEZING IN OUR EASTERN
VALLEYS BUT MAY ONLY DROP TO AROUND 40 IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.
THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS THRU RATHER QUICKLY ON
THURSDAY WITH STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION GENERATING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS EARLY IN THE DAY AND POSSIBLE -SHRA, WITH A SECONDARY
SHOT WITH THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. NEITHER SHOULD
PRODUCE MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
RATHER NICELY INTO THE 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE THE CLOUDS DUE
TO THE WARM ADVECTION. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE
RATHER CHILLY AND BRISK. MOISTURE DEPTH LOOKS TO BE TOO LIMITED FOR
FLURRIES AT THIS TIME. STRONG SUBSIDENCE DRYS OUT THE ATMO ON FRIDAY.

STILL SHAPING TO BE A RATHER WET SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WRT STRENGTH AND TILT OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROF. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND ADVECTS A BIT MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AS A CONSEQUENCE OF HAVING A STRONGER SOUTHERLY LLJ.
HAVE NOT ADJUSTED THE CURRENT FORECAST MUCH HOWEVER AS BASIC TIMING
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHRA IS EXPECTED. STILL QUESTIONABLE ON ADDING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH NO APPRECIABLE ELEVATED CAPE SHOWING UP IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COUPLE OF
EMBEDDED STORMS, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING AREAWIDE. THE ECMWF
SWEEPS MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MORE QUICKLY
THAN THE GFS WHICH OFFERS A CHC OF -SNSH OR FLURRIES. WOULD RATHER
SEE MORE CONSISTENCY, BUT GIVEN OFFICE COLLABORATION, WILL GO WITH A
SCHC OF -RA/SN TRANSITION 06-12Z MONDAY. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KHSV UNTIL 28/14Z WHEN
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS DISSIPATE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OTHERWISE PREVAIL
ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN THROUGH 29/12Z.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

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AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.