Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 012308 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
608 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/
OCTOBER IS STARTING OFF IN A VERY WARM MANNER...WITH MID AFTERNOON
HIGHS SO FAR RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH LIGHT SE WINDS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO THE SW FROM THE NEW ENGLAND REGION
CONTINUED TO CONTROL THE LOCAL WEATHER SITUATION. CHANGES HOWEVER
ARE FORTHCOMING STARTING TOMORROW...AS A STRONG SYSTEM FORMING OVER
THE ROCKIES HEADS EASTWARD...AND BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WAS REFLECTED
VIA ANALYSIS OF EARLIER 500MB HEIGHTS...WITH TROUGHING PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

FOR TONIGHT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG FORMING IN FOG-PRONE LOCATIONS.
DID NOT PUT FOG/MIST IN THE GRIDS GIVEN VERY LOW COVERAGE EXPECTED.
A LAST VERY WARM TO HOT DAY IS FORECAST ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S MOST SPOTS. A COUPLE OF SPOTS MAY
ACHIEVE 90. CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST...ESPECIALLY DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING ACROSS NW
ALABAMA...SPREADING IT TO A BIT EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR IN THE
AFTERNOON.

MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE 12Z CYCLE WERE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND DURING FRIDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF WERE A BIT
SLOWER BRINGING SHOWERS AND THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. STORM
CHARACTER WISE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED A UNI-DIRECTIONAL WIND
SHEAR PATTERN PRECEDING THE FRONT...THUS THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD BECOME NEUTRALLY TO SLIGHT NEGATIVELY TILTED TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST...COINCIDING WITH THE GREATER CHANCES FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. THE COLD FRONT APPEARS WILL MAKE A MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING FRIDAY (MIDDAY) TIMEFRAME...WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING
IN THE AFTERNOON.

COLDER AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR
MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE PLAYERS...MAYBE A LITTLE MORE
BRISK FOR THE FANS. LOWS BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID
40S...A RATHER SHARP DEPARTURE FROM THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HIGHS ON
SAT WILL ONLY RISE TO MID 60S. EVEN COOLER FOR DAYBREAK SUNDAY...
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. A FEW UPPER 30S CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN
THE COLDER SPOTS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY
WARM A TAD NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. A REINFORCING CLIPPER
LIKE SYSTEM MOVING THIS DIRECTION IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DURING MON. BIG DIFFERENCES TIMING
WAS WAS NOTED BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...WITH THE EC MUCH FASTER AND
WETTER THAN THE GFS. LEANED TO THE EC SOLUTION...THUS DID NOT MAKE
BIG CHANGES TO THE ON-GOING GRIDS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN NEXT
TUE/WED.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KMSL/KHSV THRU THE TAF PERIOD. THE FEW
CLOUDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS CURRENTLY WILL DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT, BUT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST
TOMORROW, CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM MIDDAY THRU THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE FORMALLY INCLUDED VCTS AT KMSL, BUT MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AT BOTH SITES (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING
THIS TIME).

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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