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000
FXUS64 KHUN 101943
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
243 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA INDICATED THAT
THE FORECAST AREA WAS UNDER A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SITUATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPS WERE TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

THE WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
SLOWLY GIVE WAY DURING THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS TO A SHORT WAVE MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS BY EARLY TUESDAY...THEN INTO EAST
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM MODEL...TO
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM 00Z-12Z WEDNESDAY. WILL
KEEP IN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND A
CHANCE OF TSRA ALONG WITH LIKELY SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE HIGHER MODEL POPS FROM THE NAM/ECMWF AS OPPOSED
TO THE DRIER GFS PRECIP CHANCES.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE/SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE
MODELS TO PHASE TOGETHER BETWEEN 06Z-18Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z WEDNESDAY.
MORNING HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER COLD ADVECTION IS POISED
TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. MUCH
COLDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY MORNING AND
HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON LIKELY AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
HAVE GONE WITH A TEMP COMPROMISE BETWEEN INITIALLY THE GFS AND NAM
MODELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SLIDE THE UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD BY
FRIDAY...WITH MORE OF A ZONAL MID AND UPPER FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPS
EXPECTED. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH AN ADJOINING SHORT WAVE
EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
PROGRESSIVELY EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z SATURDAY.
HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL CONSISTENCY AND THE GFS/ECMWF
MODELS BRINGING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA.

THE ECMWF MODEL BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY AN UPPER LOW...WITH
THE ECMWF MODEL INDICATING THAT IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
ARKANSAS...AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI BY 12Z MONDAY. THE GFS
MODEL DOES NOT INDICATE THIS SCENARIO...BUT IS MORE SUBTLE INVOLVING
MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
THROUGH MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND THE
EXPECTATION THAT THIS WILL BE A SEMI-ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN. HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL TEMP
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 107 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANT THRU THE
PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS. PATCHY CLOUDS IN THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE THRU THE AFTERNOON HRS...WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALSO
HELPING DRAW DOWN GUSTY WINDS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE W/SW
THRU THE PERIOD...VARYING BTWN 290-220...AND SLACKEN AFTER SUNSET.
WILL THEN HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY LIGHT FOG/HAZE TO AGAIN
DEVELOP AGAIN ARND 09-12Z...WITH BETTER CHCS FOR MVFR VIS AT KMSL.

CCC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    47  76  57  61 /  10  20  60  60
SHOALS        48  77  57  60 /  10  20  60  50
VINEMONT      48  75  57  61 /  10  20  60  60
FAYETTEVILLE  46  74  55  60 /  10  20  60  60
ALBERTVILLE   48  76  57  62 /  10  20  60  60
FORT PAYNE    46  75  56  61 /  10  20  60  60

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.