Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 231535

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1035 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Rest of Today)
Issued at 1035 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

A cold front that was accompanied by widespread showers, with locally
heavy downpours and gusty winds during the overnight had translated
well east of the forecast area. Showers associated with this have
also moved east of the region. Post frontal, mostly broken MVFR
stratus was moving across the area in a west to east manner, as
somewhat drier air to our west invades the region. A few light
showers were still occurring over parts of the forecast area in the
later morning.

Given the drier air filtering in from the west, have lowered rain
chances across the board. Did not remove PoPs completely, as some of
the models were indicating light showers possible from this deck of
stratus continuing into the early afternoon. The forecast for the
rest of today overall was in good shape. Did speed timing of shower
activity ending a bit faster, and skies becoming partly cloudy over
NW Alabama late this afternoon. Forecast high temps were trended
downward a tad across the western and central regions, given weak
cold air advection and a limited for strong solar insolation.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

The partially closed upper trough currently moving across our region
will become absorbed back into the broad long-wave trough as it
deepens in the Midwest and central Plains region today. A reinforcing
short wave will push the trough far southward into the northern GOM.
Without sufficient moisture advection ahead of this next
trough/front tonight, rainfall does not look like a possibility.
Thus, the forecast was kept dry for tonight`s frontal passage. Dry
weather and cold advection will continue on Tuesday through Tuesday
night. In the modified Canadian airmass, dew point temperatures will
probably bottom out in the 30s. Under mostly clear sky conditions,
temperatures may reach the mid to upper 30s on Tuesday night. A light
wind around 3-5 mph may keep widespread frost from forming, although
frost will be more likely in sheltered locations. A frost advisory
may be needed in some locations in future forecast updates. As the
core of the cool airmass settles overhead on Wednesday, temperatures
may only reach the upper 50s to lower 60s despite generally abundant

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Oct 23 2017

Temperatures seem to be on a little bit of a roller coaster ride in
this forecast package. After a short cool down earlier in the week
behind the cold front, temps will warm back up into the upper 60s on
Thursday and Friday thanks to southerly flow and an upper-level ridge
across the region. The ridge will quickly be pushed eastward by the
next system swinging through the Midwest.

The system will move into the TN Valley this weekend, along with a
cold front that will bring our next chance of showers and a blast of
cold air. Daytime highs will be in the 50s with overnight lows in
the 30s giving us a chance for another frost. Models have been
inconsistent over the past few days and each run with the intensity
and timing of this cold front. Currently, both the GFS and the ECMWF
have faster solutions than previous runs, and are finally closer in
timing on the arrival of the cold front. Although, the GFS still
brings the front across the area a little sooner. With the
persistent model inconsistencies, went with a blend of the GFS and
ECMWF for this system, but more towards the GFS for the arrival time
of the front and precip.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

A line of showers, coinciding with an eastward moving cold front has
moved just east of the NE Alabama/NW Georgia border as of this
writing. Local and regional radar indicated the showers have moved
mostly east of the KHSV terminal Given a wrap around residual showers
potential, have left VCSH in for KHSV for the morning. Otherwise, a
mostly MVFR ceiling (less than 2000` AGL) remained. A brief lowering
into the IFR range is possible early in the TAF, but ceilings should
slowly rise into the VFR range by the late afternoon. NNW winds in
the 5-15kt range today should back to SSW after sunset around 5kt.





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