Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 010815
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
315 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

At 08z...Surface high pressure extended from Minnesota through
eastern Nebraska into eastern Kansas. Temperatures across western
Nebraska range from 59 at Chadron, with lower to mid 50s common
across the remainder of western Nebraska. A broken deck of mid
clouds extends across western and central Nebraska, mainly east of
the Panhandle. There have been a few weak radar returns in southwest
Nebraska and northern Sheridan county. With high based clouds near
or above 12k feet, even sprinkles appear unlikely.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Today...Surface low pressure will deepen along the lee of the
Rockies. Light southerly winds this morning will range from 10 to 15
mph most areas by afternoon. Highs today will be about 5 degrees
warmer than yesterday, and with increased sunshine. Skies will clear
out from west to east today.  MOS Guidance for highs today is in
close agreement. 850mb temps will warm to 21C in the eastern
Panhandle and 18C at North Platte and Valentine. this supportive of
highs near 80 across the western Sandhills, to around 75 in the
east.

Synoptically, an upper trough will remain across the Pacific
Northwest today, as a closed low rotates slowly northward toward the
southern Great Lakes. An upper ridge extends north across central
into eastern Canada.

Tonight...Skies to remain mostly clear with light south to southeast
wind. A transitory upper level ridge will extend across the Central
Conus. Dewpoint will also hold in the upper 40s most areas with
overnight lows to range from the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

In the mid range, temperatures and precipitation chances are the
main forecast concerns.  A upper level ridge will be entering the
final breakdown phase across the Central Plains as a trough digs
into the Pac Northwest.  At the surface low pressure will deepen on
the Lee of the Rockies and allow for increasing southerly flow.
Temperatures will respond by warming into the upper 70s to the lower
to mid 80s across the cwa.  The warmest readings will be in closer
proximity to the surface trough /panhandle and west/ with h85
thermal advection shown from the higher terrain to the west.  With
the increasing forcing associated with a lead shortwave trough...a
few showers or storms are possible late Sunday across the northwest
where the cap is weakest...but owing to dry lower levels...if storms
form...qpf amounts will be light.  As the trough draws near...the
sfc lee trough will further deepen and strengthen the pressure
gradient...which will provide for breezy to gusty conditions Monday.
Temperatures will still be warm as the final breakdown occurs.  Will
need to monitor timing of the expected  backing southwest winds just
ahead of the sfc trough.  The downsloping sw flow will advect drier
air...which would create a fire wx concern.  As of now...RHs fall
into the mid 20s across southwest Neb during peak heating
Monday...but the models typically struggle with how dry it actually
gets in these patterns.  Fire headlines may be needed for southern
portions of Zone 204 and all of 210.  It should be noted that most
area fuels are doing well for the time of year...but southern 204
and northern portions of 210 are cured and have seen recent large
range fires.  The models suggest some convection along the sfc
trough/front late afternoon and evening Monday...which probably will
be our best shot at qpf for the next week.  Those chances are
dwindling with each successive model run however as the main forcing
with the wave shifts north and less than ideal moisture continues to
be shown by the available guidance.

Tuesday and beyond...The region will remain under the influence of
the mean trough through much of the work week.  This will lead to
seasonal...or below seasonal temperatures as modified Canadian sfc
high pressure settles over the plains.  Dry conditions are
anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

The midlevel disturbance and sprinkles are expected to lift
through Western and North Central Nebraska overnight. The model
consensus then suggests the midlevel cloudiness with cigs AOA
BKN150 will disperse from west to east Saturday morning. VFR is
expected all areas overnight through Saturday evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Jacobs
AVIATION...CDC



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