Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 241618
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1118 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
18z taf issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Intermittent MVFR to VFR ceilings will be possible this afternoon,
with CU layers ranging between 1800-3500ft. SE winds ~12-15 kts
across SE TX/SW LA, 8-10 kts for C and SC LA terminals. SHRA/TSRA
chances less than 20% for terminals, too low to mention in terminals.
This evening and overnight will see more prevailing MVFR ceilings,
intermittently going to IFR between 10-14z WED. MVFR ceilings and
SE winds 6-10 kts will prevail after 15z WED.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 926 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

UPDATE...The previous forecast remains on target this morning and
no changes are needed at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 639 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
24/12Z TAF Issuance.

AVIATION...
Sctd low clouds along with some CI were indicated on regional stlt
images. Conditions were VFR at TAF sites with the exception of
some patchy MVFR vsby reductions at AEX due to fog which should lift
by 14Z. VFR conditions expected to prevail through the day. Sely
winds will increase to around 10 kt this aftn with a few gusts to
near 20 kt at BPT/AEX. Winds should diminish after sunset with low
clouds developing, resulting in possible MVFR cigs at BPT.

24

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Surface map shows a high pressure system over the southeast US,
and this high is ridging over the Gulf South and into the forecast
area. The result is southeast flow off the Gulf producing humid
conditions. At the upper levels, a trough is located along the
east coast, and another trough along the Pacific coast, with a
ridge from central Mexico across the western Gulf and into the
forecast area. Some high level cloudiness is noted coming over
the top of the ridge and into the forecast area. Where skies are clear
and winds are light, patchy fog is forming, and fog should stay
patchy in nature for the remainder of the night.

For the remainder of the week, the surface high will continue over
the southeast US and ridge into the forecast area, keeping low
level flow off the Gulf of Mexico, with warm and humid
conditions. Rain chances will be dictated by upper level
conditions.

The upper level ridge will build across the forecast area today
and hold through Wednesday. A short wave, helping to produce MCS
along the Red River Valley of Texas and Oklahoma again, will try
to cut into the ridge later today. However, main energy should
stay north of the forecast area. Will have slight chance pops for
this afternoon northwest of a Leesville to Sabine Pass line, where
moisture will be at its best for daytime heating to work on, and
where any influence of the short wave will occur. Activity that
happens to form will decrease with the loss of daytime heating in
the evening hours. With upper level ridge in place for Wednesday,
again will have just minimal pops for daytime heating hit and
mainly miss...type convection in the afternoon.

Rain chances will begin to increase from west to east during the
Thursday to Saturday period, as upper level flow becomes more
southwest aloft, cutting into the ridge, as upper level low out
west moves into the southwest US by Thursday, then into the plains
for Friday/Saturday.

With lack of ridging and capping for Friday into Saturday, and
plenty of Gulf moisture, scattered showers and storms will be
possible, especially during the afternoon hours.

As the upper level system moves off to the northeast and weakens
on Sunday, upper level ridging will again build in, helping to
decrease pops back to minimal levels.

Rua

MARINE...
High pressure at the surface is located over the southeastern US
and ridging westward along the northern Gulf of Mexico and into
the coastal waters. This high will remain over that region for the
remainder of the week, and will keep onshore winds for the coastal
waters. A series of low pressure systems will develop over the
plains through the end of the week. Each system will help tighten
the gradient and increase wind speeds to at-least moderate levels.
Wind speeds look to be at their peak during the Thursday into
Friday period, and small craft exercise caution criteria may be
met for portions of the coastal waters on those days.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  89  72  89  73 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  86  75  86  74 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  87  73  88  73 /  10  10  10  10
BPT  86  76  86  75 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...08


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