Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 011545
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1045 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND PRECIP WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO RAMP
UP BEYOND 2 INCHES IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SE TX AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LA
AND INCREASED POPS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AREA. ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN ACCORDINGLY. GRIDS ALREADY UPDATED. ZONES TO FOLLOW.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
AREAS OF RAIN TODAY WILL LIMIT VSBY AND LOWER CEILINGS CONDITIONS
AT TIMES... CHANCES FOR RAINS WILL BE GREATEST IN SE TX AND SW
LA. OTHERWISE PRECIP POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE SHOWING A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN BEAUMONT AND LAFAYETTE. RADAR SHOWED
RAIN DEVELOPING NEAT THE COAST AND MOVING NORTHWARD. LAKE CHARLES
APPEARED TO BE NEAR THE APEX OF THE MAXIMUM FEED AND THEREFORE
RAIN WAS FALLING EARLY THIS MORNING IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN THE
CITY.

ONCE AGAIN TODAYS FOCUS WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHICH IS FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS OUR
REGION. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING AT LCH SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 1.85. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TODAY ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR REGION WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WHAT THIS GENERALLY MEANS IS
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WARMING TO INITIATE CONVECTION THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP POPS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
JUICED UP. THERE IS SOME WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WHICH
COULD ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LOOKS LIKE RAIN INITIATE TOWARDS
MORNING AND THEN RAMPS UP INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AREAS OF CONVECTION DISSIPATE...ONLY TO
REDEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING AS INSTABILITY RETURNS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO A WEAK TROUGH BY THURSDAY SO
COULD SEE A BRIEF LOWERING OF POP THURSDAY...BUT IN GENERAL WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN HIGHS TO THE EAST AND WEST. THEREFORE...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND THE DAILY TRIGGER...DAYTIME
HEATING.

LOOKS LIKE OVERALL THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WOULD EXPECT BETTER THAN
AVERAGE POPS AND NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  72  94  71 /  40  30  20  20
LCH  84  74  90  73 /  60  30  50  30
LFT  88  74  92  73 /  40  20  30  30
BPT  84  73  89  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...11


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