Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 192150
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
450 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT SHRA CONTINUES OVER SE TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY LINGER
INTO EARLY EVENING WITH EXPECTED DISSIPATION SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
THUS...TEMPO GROUP FOR INTERMITTENT HEAVIER SHRA & MVFR VSBY/CEILING
THRU 02Z. OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR VSBY TOWARDS THE DAYBREAK
HOURS FROM 09-13Z. MAINLY EAST WINDS 10-12 KTS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z
SAT...WITH NO MENTION OF SHRA AS DRIER AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE
REGION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
BROAD SWATH OF CONVECTION ACRS SE TX EARLIER TODAY HAS
DIMINISHED...WHILE ISLTD ACTIVITY HAS SINCE DEVELOPED OVER INLAND
AREAS...MAINLY ACRS LOWER SE TX AND FAR SW LA. LATEST WV LOOPS SHOW
DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LVLS CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH INTO
THE AREA ON INCREASINGLY NLY FLOW. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S IN
MOST LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE SHOWERS HAVE HELPED COOL A FEW
LOCATIONS DOWN INTO THE 70S.

DISCUSSION...
AFTN CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SHUNT
THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
AROUND 70 OVERNIGHT.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROF OVER
THE SERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING A NLY FLOW IN PLACE
ALOFT. THIS WILL SUSTAIN THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER THE
AREA...AND HELP TO KEEP CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES ON THE LOW
SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABV
NORMAL WITH LOWS NR 70 AND HIGHS NR 90.

A TROF DROPPING SE OUT OF CANADA SUNDAY WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO/MS VALLEYS MONDAY. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE NLY FLOW ALOFT
AND HELP TO USHER A COOL FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
OR TSTMS MAINLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH ACRS THE
AREA. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S ACRS
MOST OF THE AREA AND HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S. SMALL RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE DEEPENS
ON LOW LVL ELY FLOW.

MARINE...
SHOWER AND TSTM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
DRIER AIR AND HIGHER PRES BUILDS SWRD OVER THE GULF. A LT TO
MODT ELY FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
MORE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ITS PASSAGE...AND AN OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS
WAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  89  71  91  71 /  20  10  10  10  10
KBPT  73  87  72  91  72 /  20  20  10  10  10
KAEX  69  90  68  92  69 /  20  10  10  10  10
KLFT  71  89  70  91  71 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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