Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 230402

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1002 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Only minor adjustments to hourly wind/temperature/dewpoint grids
to bring in line with recent obs/trends, but overall fcst is on
track tonight. Winds are beginning to diminish a bit acrs the
area and still look to fall below advisory criteria by midnight.
Wrap-around moisture and low clouds on the back side of the low
are decreasing over the area and expected to slide east overnight,
leaving the area under clear skies by late tonight/early Monday.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 908 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017/

Strong west to west-northwest winds 20-30 kts with gusts 30-40
kts to continue this evening, only slowly diminishing from west to
east. Low to mid level clouds associated with the western wrap
around moisture currently affecting the region. Winds expected to
diminish significantly by 12z Monday.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 446 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017/

Vigorous upper low and associated SFC cyclone will continue to
track east toward the Mid Atlantic states tonight and MON, before
turning and lifting NE along the East Coast on TUE. Upper ridging
was noted over the Four Corners region, with upstream Pacific jet
energy impinging into SRN CA.

Tight pressure gradient associated with the still deepening
cyclone along with 40-45 KT winds in the lowest half KM or so
overspreading the area will continue to result in strong/gusty W
to NW winds late this afternoon. As mentioned in the discussion
this morning, period of strongest winds is just beginning, with
recent gusts of 40-45 MPH observed over SE TX and SW LA. Forecast
soundings indicate that a well mixed boundary layer will continue
well into the evening, so the wind advisory was extended through
midnight. An early cancellation is possible over parts of East TX
into West Central LA as winds are progged to begin decreasing
from west to east and may fall below criteria by mid evening.

Large area of wrap-around stratiform rain continues over much of
N and Central LA. Latest guidance indicates that the bulk of this
activity will remain north of the area while gradually shifting
east this evening, so will only carry a small PoP over a part of
East Central LA. While cooler, temperatures tonight will remain
above seasonal normals, falling into the mid/upper 40s away from
the coast.

Ridging at the SFC and aloft will build east into the area
tomorrow, with south winds returning by tomorrow evening as the
sfc high shifts to the east and the aforementioned jet energy
yields a developing lee cyclone. This low is forecast to track
eastward and reach the Great Lakes on WED, dragging a trailing
CDFNT through the area. Limited MSTR progged to be in place, so
will continue with low end chance PoPs. Mild and dry weather to
prevail in the wake of this front, with a developing broad ERN
CONUS trof sending a reinforcing front through on SAT.

A strong area of low pressure will move across the south central
US then up the East coast by Monday. West to northwest winds of
gale force are expected to continue over the Gulf waters this
evening, but should begin to decrease and drop below warning
criteria by early Monday morning. A small craft advisory will
likely be needed for all or parts of the Gulf waters beyond this
time. A small craft advisory continues for the coastal lakes and
bays. Water levels have begun to respond to the strong offshore
flow, and low water conditions are expected to develop this
evening on the coastal lakes and bays, persisting through and
including Monday morning. A brief period of light winds is
expected Monday evening, with a modest onshore flow developing
after midnight and continuing until a cold front crosses the area
on Wednesday. A modest offshore flow will prevail behind the front
through the end of the week.



AEX  45  62  43  73 /  10   0   0   0
LCH  48  67  50  76 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  51  67  49  76 /  10   0   0   0
BPT  48  69  54  78 /   0   0   0   0


LA...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for LAZ027>033-041>045-

TX...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for TXZ180-201-215-216-

GM...Gale Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-

     Low Water Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ430-432-435.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ430-432-435.



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