Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 072225
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
525 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
S WINDS 10-12 KTS EARLY...DIMINISHING TO 6-8 KTS AFTER 02Z INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT. MAINLY
VFR EXPECTED...EXCEPT INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 09-13Z
WITH THE STRATOCU DECK COMING OFF THE GULF TOWARDS DAYBREAK. AFTER
15Z...S WINDS 10-14 KTS GUSTING NEAR 20 KTS EXPECTED AGAIN. WITH
20% OVER SC LA BY THE AFTERNOON...PLACED VCSH FOR LFT/ARA TERMINALS.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOWING UP ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON
AT THE EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...DESPITE THE MID LEVEL RIDGING...AND NEAR
REGIONS THAT MSAS SHOWS DECENT SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING...AND THEREFORE...SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY SUNSET.

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAINLY HOLD ACROSS TEXAS AND THE GULF SOUTH
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MUCH LIKE A REPEAT OF TODAY...WITH ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND ALONG THE
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED TO BE A
LITTLE BETTER.

FOR LATER IN THE WEEK (THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE...SEEN BEST ON THE PROGS AT 70H...WILL MOVE AROUND THE
RIDGE AND FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING A LITTLE EXTRA MOISTURE AROUND THAT LEVEL...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP IN THE DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS AGAIN PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE VERY
NEAR OR OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION TO
LEVELS WHERE THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS
OR FORECAST.

RUA

MARINE...
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE AROUND FLORIDA AND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAKING FOR BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE MODERATE WINDS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH LOOKS LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL STAY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CRITERIA. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH MAINLY
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW SEAS INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND ACROSS THE REGION.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  93  74  92 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  79  91  77  91 /  10  10  10  20
LFT  77  91  76  91 /  10  20  10  30
BPT  79  92  77  92 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...08



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