Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 211842
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1242 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
21/18Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
A cluster of SHRA/TSRA will continue to move east acrs the
Acadiana terminals through the aftn with MVFR cigs anticipated.
Elsewhere, SCT to ocnl BKN VFR cigs can be expected as drier air
filters in on the backside of an upper low over the region. Winds
will remain light and generally west northwest in the wake of the
convection. Some low cloud/patchy fog could return after 05Z
tonight, with MVFR/IFR conditions overnight into Wednesday morning
before lifting/dissipating around 15Z.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1035 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Updated the grids/zones earlier for radar trends as convection
associated with passing mid/upper-level low was developing/moving
ewd across the forecast area. Remaining inherited grids/zones look
in good shape.

Update already out.
25

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 705 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/

UPDATE...Radar depicting a cluster of convection advancing into
interior southeast Texas and a few lightning strikes being
detected. Updated forecast to include isolated thunder.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 546 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
12Z taf issuance.

AVIATION...
Intermittent MVFR to IFR visibilities/ceilings this morning along
with isolated SHRA developing with upper low over SE TX. Expect
some clearing later this afternoon for BPT, but lingering wrap
around low level clouds likely to yield MVFR ceilings for the
remainder of the morning into the afternoon for LA terminals, and
likely for the forecast period for AEX. Once clearing commences
after 06z, intermittent MVFR to IFR visibilities highlighted in
tempo group from 08-12z WED.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...Sharp upper trof currently advancing east across
east Texas in the process of transitioning into a closed low.
Feature progged to move across north Louisiana today, diving
southeast into the north-central gulf overnight. Organized light
to moderate rains associated with system currently exiting the
eastern portion of the forecast area. Will keep low end rain
chances through today for a few showers as system moves through
and associated cool front is dragged across the area. Cooler temps
on tap through the remainder of the workweek but still remaining
above the norm.

After today and a minimal rain chance, looking for an extended
dry weather pattern emerging. Deep northerly flow will overspread
the area as the day progresses between low advancing east and
southeast of the area and modest ridging approaching through the
south plains. Flow will trend more zonal but equally dry for
Thursday and Friday. Next shortwave trof advancing across the
northern plains Friday will send an associated cold front across
the area late in the day. Sharply drier air will be following
this more robust front along with significantly cooler temps.
Might actually see temperatures fall to "below the norm" as 1025
mb surface high migrates across the south plains and lower
Mississippi valley through the weekend. Front will come through
with no rains with very limited moisture available. Warming and
moistening return flow sets up Monday as the high moves east of
the region.

MARINE...Strong low pressure will advance east across north
Louisiana today then dive southeast into the north-central gulf
overnight. Organized rains associated with this feature have
advanced east of the area but a few showers will remain possible
through the day over the northwest gulf. Light easterlies will
trend northerly with the passage of a surface front later today
and remain offshore through Wednesday. Southerlies will return
Wednesday night into Thursday ahead of a strong frontal passage
expected Friday night.

23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  57  74  54 /  50  20  10   0
LCH  72  58  75  56 /  70  10   0   0
LFT  72  58  74  55 /  70  20  10   0
BPT  74  58  77  57 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



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