Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 090344
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
944 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND HAVE FALLEN BELOW 10
KTS IN MOST LOCATIONS. A COOL AND VERY DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS ACRS MUCH OF
THE AREA. UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT
RECENT OBS AND TRENDS...BUT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING
WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL TO NR FREEZING NORTH...MID 30S ALONG
I-10 AND NR 40 ALONG THE COAST. NO OTHER UPDATES ARE PLANNED THIS
EVENING.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

UPDATE...
UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE. GUSTY NWLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT OVERALL SPEEDS SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING AS WINDS DECOUPLE. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MAINLY A WIND FORECAST THIS PERIOD. NW WINDS ~20-22 KTS WITH GUSTS
NEAR 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT HOUR...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING...BUT LIKELY TO REMAIN 8-10 KTS OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN ~15-18
KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS AFTER 15Z TUE. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH A DEEP ERN TROF
HELPING TO DRAW A COOL AND VERY DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION. DEEPLY MIXED DAYTIME BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH...AND SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX INLAND WITH DIURNAL
DECOUPLING...BUT ENOUGH MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO PREVENT MUCH OF A
RECOVERY TO SFC DEWPOINTS. THIS SHOULD ALSO ASSIST IN HOLDING
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT...AND KEPT LOWS TWD THE WARMER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SUNNY AND MILD
DAY...WITH WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY BUT STILL A BIT ON THE
BREEZY SIDE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
IT APPEARS THEY WILL REMAIN JUST SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW ALSO GIVES RISE TO LOW WATER
CONCERNS...AS TIDE LEVELS AT THE TIME OF LOW TIDE TODAY AT SABINE
AND CALCASIEU PASSES FELL BELOW -1 FT MLLW. A REPEAT IS POSSIBLE
TOMORROW...BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF AND LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS
FURTHER EVALUATE.

GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED INTO WED AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO
LIFT OUT...WITH THIS TREND ACCELERATING INTO THU AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN GULF...IMPARTING A WARM WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT WITH A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH GLOBAL MODELS BECOMING MORE
DIVERGENT SUN INTO MON WITH THE TIMING OF ANOTHER FRONT.

13

MARINE...
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT.
BUILDING SEAS ALONG WITH ROUGH CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES AND BAYS
CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND WAVES TO DIMINISH.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WEST TEXAS.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  32  55  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  35  58  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  36  56  37  59 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  35  61  38  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ452-
     455-470-472-475.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ452-455-470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ430-432-435.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ450.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...04


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