Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 302025
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
325 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...INTERESTING FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM.  AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED TO MOSTLY THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
AND WITH HRR HINTING AT A BUILDING COMPLEX MOVING EAST...WILL KEEP
HIGH POPS FOR TONIGHT OVER THE AREA. THINK MOST OF ACTIVITY WILL BE
MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT WITH UPPER DIFFLUENUCE OVER THE
AREA...MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY GENERATE SUNDAY MORNING.

DRIER WEATHER TREND WILL BE FORECASTED AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS OVER THE
AREA AND LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS EAST.  HOWEVER...GOOD MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECASTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK SO
FORECAST WILL TREND TOWARD LOW DIURNAL POPS BY MIDWEEK.  MODELS ARE
SHOWING UPPER LOW/TROUGH SHIFTING EAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK WITH
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  WILL MAINTAIN POPS
ON THE VERY LOW END LATE IN THE WEEK BASED ON MODEL BLENDS.  NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.


&&

.MARINE...VERY BENIGN PRESSURE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVER NORTHERN
GULF. OUTSIDE OF ANY LIMITED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY...WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD BE VERY TRANQUIL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  68  83  66 /  60  60  40  20
LCH  86  70  85  68 /  60  40  40  20
LFT  86  69  84  69 /  60  40  40  30
BPT  85  69  85  67 /  60  50  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04



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